AWE - AWE Limited

legs · 10 June 2010

roland said:
AWE has been struggling for a while. The lower oil price and a bad drilling report triggered some pretty heavy selling.

There are some expectations of weakness to continue, with a target of $2.30 or even as low as $2.20

I hold but won't be adding unless we reach these support levels.

So you topped up Roland??? I held, but regretted not selling after the drilling results and getting back in at 2.10

roland · 10 June 2010

legs said:
So you topped up Roland??? I held, but regretted not selling after the drilling results and getting back in at 2.10

No, I haven't added to my position - doesn't really seem to be much reason to yet. Looks like it's going to flop around between $2.00 and $2.12 for a while.

Would like to see a couple of high volume days and a break above $2.20

buysellmestuffed · 10 June 2010

I got in at 2.02 closed at 2.13 i can't see any reason they won't get close to 2.18 tomorrow buyers are there .

They needed some good news to form a base , that was formed about the 2.00 - 2.10 range . That base was gained without the good reports .

The share price did spike a few days ago to 2.18 , i reckon some news got out before the masses new .

They now have good news and are going forward .

I'm looking at 2.30 plus in the near term . not looking at selling .

I reckon it's going up some more good news and its gonna take off . I would like the latest oil and gas find to be a decent amount , ratified to commercial to underpin the recent share rise though .

Thats in my limited knowledge ,and opinion , the shares were trading well without this information previously high $2 range .

They have no debt $350 million in cash , a great drilling program , fantastic fields in which to drill in , and enough resources to drill for 10 years without cash injection .

That to me is a no brainier , I'm on and awaiting the rise

Yes i do hold the stock , no its not for sale :

buysellmestuffed · 16 June 2010

buysellmestuffed said:
.

I would like the latest oil and gas find to be a decent amount , ratified to commercial to underpin the recent share rise though .

Yes i do hold the stock , no its not for sale :

Opps i sold it , that oil find was no good , not commercial . I was hoping it was to under pinn the share price .

Only problem is they drill holes and havn't hit a good deposit as yet . Still there share price is rallying again , don't know why .

jancha · 5 July 2010

buysellmestuffed said:
I got in at 2.02 closed at 2.13 i can't see any reason they won't get close to 2.18 tomorrow buyers are there .

They needed some good news to form a base , that was formed about the 2.00 - 2.10 range . That base was gained without the good reports .

The share price did spike a few days ago to 2.18 , i reckon some news got out before the masses new .

They now have good news and are going forward .

I'm looking at 2.30 plus in the near term . not looking at selling .

I reckon it's going up some more good news and its gonna take off . I would like the latest oil and gas find to be a decent amount , ratified to commercial to underpin the recent share rise though .

Thats in my limited knowledge ,and opinion , the shares were trading well without this information previously high $2 range .

They have no debt $350 million in cash , a great drilling program , fantastic fields in which to drill in , and enough resources to drill for 10 years without cash injection .

That to me is a no brainier , I'm on and awaiting the rise

Yes i do hold the stock , no its not for sale :

Have you gotten off the floor yet?

$1.60!!! How low can you go?
Can someone shed some light on reasons of AWEs continual slide in the market?
I've been buying in stages thinking it cant go any lower..

Seneca60BC · 5 July 2010

Well since the world oil price has been slipping and this is an oil producer, then you will obviously see a fall in the SP. No matter how good the books look, no one is going to buy into a company which could be facing declining EPS growth and ROCE.

Cheers.

TheAbyss · 5 July 2010

jancha said:
Have you gotten off the floor yet?

$1.60!!! How low can you go?
Can someone shed some light on reasons of AWEs continual slide in the market?
I've been buying in stages thinking it cant go any lower..

Until they identify a commercial quality field they are faced with diminishing supply (income) from their current operations hence the SP slide.

They had a spurt on the back of a find however once this find proved to be non commercial in nature the SP slid again. The latest Tui field update today indicates predicted production to decrease from 4.80 MBOE to 2.84 in 2011 which is a hefty slow down hence the SP (PPP sp also down accordingly).

Plenty of positives for AWE and also PPP for that matter however the time to buy will be when they have some exploration success and not before (unless they buy something with all that cash).

jancha · 5 July 2010

Seneca60BC said:
Well since the world oil price has been slipping and this is an oil producer, then you will obviously see a fall in the SP. No matter how good the books look, no one is going to buy into a company which could be facing declining EPS growth and ROCE.

Cheers.

Even with oil being at $30 a barrel a year or so ago they weren't trading this low!!
Their return on capital would be better now than back then.
They still have one of the strongest growth potential as oil companies go and the demand for oil will be around for some time to come.

Dont see that as being the obvious answer Seneca but thanks anyway.

jancha · 5 July 2010

TheAbyss said:
Until they identify a commercial quality field they are faced with diminishing supply (income) from their current operations hence the SP slide.

They had a spurt on the back of a find however once this find proved to be non commercial in nature the SP slid again. The latest Tui field update today indicates predicted production to decrease from 4.80 MBOE to 2.84 in 2011 which is a hefty slow down hence the SP (PPP sp also down accordingly).

Plenty of positives for AWE and also PPP for that matter however the time to buy will be when they have some exploration success and not before (unless they buy something with all that cash).

Thanks Abyss. Makes a bit more sense.
Maybe taking over ADI in the Eagleford could help them achieve some positive news further on as well as gain knowledge in the Shale gas play for their interests in WA.

buysellmestuffed · 5 July 2010

buysellmestuffed said:
Opps i sold it , that oil find was no good , not commercial . I was hoping it was to under pinn the share price .

Only problem is they drill holes and havn't hit a good deposit as yet . Still there share price is rallying again , don't know why .

jancha said:
Have you gotten off the floor yet?

$1.60!!! How low can you go?
Can someone shed some light on reasons of AWEs continual slide in the market?
I've been buying in stages thinking it cant go any lower..

As above i sold out when that find was not commercial , i was hoping it would hold the value of the stock , lucky for me i was going to go long on this stock as all the info is good except they can't hit the jackpot , i reckon they will , but when ?? and what will the share price be , they have a couple of wells there drilling that only have a 1000 ft or mts to go to find out .

But i'm thinking i would rather wait until they find something first .
i'm liking the price but i don't like to gamble that much. i would rather pay more for the stock when they hit some oil .

Seneca60BC · 5 July 2010

jancha said:
Even with oil being at $30 a barrel a year or so ago they weren't trading this low!!
Their return on capital would be better now than back then.
They still have one of the strongest growth potential as oil companies go and the demand for oil will be around for some time to come.

Dont see that as being the obvious answer Seneca but thanks anyway.

One thing I learnt is that what happened in the past is old news - what will happen in the future drives Share Prices higher. Last year, AWE may have had a number of speculative drilling plans coming up so investors pushed the stock higher is anticipation, but now with those results on the negative side, there is not so much keeness to stay in the stock so investors may not me so excited with AWEs future prospects.

Cheers
Seneca

vincent191 · 5 July 2010

I bought in last year at $2.60!!!

With my luck as soon as I sell the sp will go up. Sorry boys & gals, I am hanging on.

Seneca60BC · 5 July 2010

Sorry to hear Vincent - hopefully for you and the others, the SP will improve once we get out from this poor sentiment.

As a point of interest, Nymex Crude was trading at about $65 one year ago compared to $72 today.

Cheers
Seneca

jancha · 5 July 2010

Seneca60BC said:
Sorry to hear Vincent - hopefully for you and the others, the SP will improve once we get out from this poor sentiment.

As a point of interest, Nymex Crude was trading at about $65 one year ago compared to $72 today.

Cheers
Seneca

Another point of interest is AWE was trading at around $2.45 a year ago when oil was $65.

Point being the POO isn't the obvious answer as you stated but more the underlying reasons as Theabyss has pointed out for their slide.

legs · 5 July 2010

I just topped up on them today... bal sheet is still very healthy and i am very long on them... they will hit oil one day (sooner than you think) and the SP will look like a spurter!

oldblue · 5 July 2010

legs said:
I just topped up on them today... bal sheet is still very healthy and i am very long on them... they will hit oil one day (sooner than you think) and the SP will look like a spurter!

I fully agree that they look to be oversold but why buy them when the SP's in such a pronounced downtrend?

I have them on my watchlist, waiting for the trend to change.

The_Snowman · 5 July 2010

let's look at the 2007 decline, from May high at $4.52 to October low at $1.68 - down $2.84.

certainly moves when it wants too

The_Snowman · 5 July 2010

And now the 2010 decline from January high of $3.17 down to today low of $1.61 = $1.56

Showing a possible Wave 3, if there is to be a market bounce soon, a Wave 4 may develop, then the Wave 5 even lower

The_Snowman · 5 July 2010

vincent191 said:
I bought in last year at $2.60!!!

With my luck as soon as I sell the sp will go up. Sorry boys & gals, I am hanging on.

Yes, when price gets down to half price at $1.30 and you are ready to sell, please let us know so we can BUY and I thought I was a good contrary indicator

Uncle Len · 7 July 2010

Having read the last dozen or so commentaries, one factor not mentioned re. the recent decline in AWE's share price is the impact of the newly announced extension of the existing oil RRT. I'm not full bottle on the proportion of AWE's resources that may be impacted by this latest proposed impost (has to get through the Senate), but it certainly won't be positive to earnings. AWE appears to be only marginally profitable, so the market may be joining the dots with regard to this latest attempt by a socialist government to screw private enterprise. For this reason alone, I'm hesitant to buy AWE.

AWE - AWE Limited

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Seneca60BC

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