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AUSSIE DOLLAR...here we go again? Intermarket Analysis

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OMG! The Aussie is up to 0.7950's...

Does anyone know the catalyst for this move? There hasn't really been any major economic announcements...

Is this purely technical now? (since no data) or is there some fundamentals in play here?
 
Naif said:
i think that sellin` audusd from 0.7997 with sl 25 pips and limit 0.7905 would be safe..
i guess it worths ...

what about you traders?
Click to expand...

Naif
I'm looking to .815 on a daily time frame in the shorter term, attached is my chart (weekly) of the way I see it at the moment. (The triangle has formed over 6 months, the one Nick Radge is talking about is a longer term one of 2+ years.)
I'm still relatively new to E/W so don't attach too much weight to my wave count .
 

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  • audusd_030106.gif
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Kauri,
I believe that USD will fall against most of the currencies because they will decrease the interest rates (nothing sure yet) but that is what said in the market.. I do agree with you that aud will rise against usd and record new highs but what i do think that audusd its time now to correct about 100 to 150 pips, i attached the daily and weekly charts with my own opinions.
 
the charts >>>>>>>>>>>>>>
 

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  • audusd.GIF
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  • audusdweekly.GIF
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There first chart is from the article. The second is the latest chart from The Chartist from 27/11/06.





 

Naif,
I agree, a fall of 100 to around the.7878 level wont be entirely unexpected. Data out of the U.S tonight may tip it over.
 

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as it was expected the audusd fell around 140pips to 0.7833 after the ISM data and it was expected from the market but it didnt rise to 0.7995 levels and missed it , anyway there was a strong divergence and it also appeared in the 1h chart that the bulls weren't buyin'.

from the chart i attach.. i think its a good area to buy now with stop at 7825 and the target is 7890.
 

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  • audusdh1.GIF
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  • audusd4h.GIF
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changed the sl to 7820 cuz i went long from 7840 and 7825 is so close
 

lost my 1st 20pips in Jan..

audusd had broken the trendline in the 4hr chart.. right now a good supports at 7815 , and if it break it down then the anouther support is 7763 ..

i prefer to stay out and watch today whats gonna happen..
 
Down about 2 cents last few days.

Maybe getting close to a bottom, if it can hold above 77.5 then a push above 80 cents in the next few weeks ?, if not back down to 74-75 IMO.
 
Pager said:
Down about 2 cents last few days.

Maybe getting close to a bottom, if it can hold above 77.5 then a push above 80 cents in the next few weeks ?, if not back down to 74-75 IMO.
Click to expand...

Bottom???

IMO this down move is in it's infancy. It will be much lower by years end
 
machi said:
Bottom???

IMO this down move is in it's infancy. It will be much lower by years end
Click to expand...


I agree machi!!

I think AUDUSD will retest 0.70 and lower before making any attempt to 0.94. 0.94. The 0.94 level I think is possible in the long term hower.

I think it's good to look at the long term charts other pairs such USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, EURUSD. Forecasting the esisest of these will make it easier to see were AUDUSD is headed. Bottom line however. The USD is going up this year, therefore anything trading against it will suffer. That includes the bulk of the resources

Cheers
 
the audusd failed to close below 7759 which it lies on the 38.2 fibo in the daily chart from 7405 to 7977 and 61.8 in 4h chart from 7613 to the top 7977, and there is a strong support in the RSI 14 days, the indicators is telling me that the corrections has been done and we have now the resistance 7843 which it lies on the 38.2 line fibo in the 4h chart & 23.6 in the daily chart and if it closed above 7840 levels that mean its closed above
the line of moving average 200 in the hourly chart, 100 4h chart and 200 4h chart and then i can say that the short and mid term trend is up and that we gonna see new highs.
 
Hi Naif
I'm pretty much with you but am wary of a pullback to form a Wc.. so long as it respects .7720 if it does..
 

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  • audusd_140107.gif
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Hi kauri.
i am not expertised enough to use elliot waves, and right now the audusd is 7842 .. did the wave B already end? or it might end at 7890? what i see in the charts that audusd is going to 7890 - 7910 .
 
Naif said:
Hi kauri.
i am not expertised enough to use elliot waves, and right now the audusd is 7842 .. did the wave B already end? or it might end at 7890? what i see in the charts that audusd is going to 7890 - 7910 .
Click to expand...

Hi Naif
I'm only starting out on E/W so treat my posts accordingly.
If a wave b is forming anything under 7970 odd will do, although 7870 would be a tidy 50% ret of the last swing.
 
I expect Asia to move more into euro curency and divest or otherwise downsize their USD holdings over coming years.
I expect the US will need to print more money than they ever expected, to fund their war effort and twin debt legacies.
I expect Australia to continue to ride a now volatile commodity bull that will nevertheless maintain our currency at a cyclical high level.
I see yen as the "spoiler".
With probable Oz rate hikes this year, I see our dollar closing the year significantly higher than it began.
 
Hi Naif
A bit early yet but on my charts it looks like it may be setting up for that push up you expected.
 

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  • audusd_160107.gif
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hi kauri..

i think we need a daily close above 7845 to see 7890 - 7920
you can see what i see in my charts (4h chart) it closed above 100 & 200 4h moving average, closed above 38.2 fibo and the RSI 14 broke up a good resistance..
it might correct to 7825 levels but i do still expect a north move in the coming days and it might record new highs in Feb 2007
 

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  • audusdh4-17jan2007.jpg
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