AUSSIE DOLLAR...here we go again? Intermarket Analysis

DTM · 23 October 2005

Aussie dollar on the weekly and monthly charts are in a downwards direction re: red arrow pointing downwards. On the daily, it looks like its getting ready to bounce but a very bearish candlestick was formed in the last session. Support lines are still holding but it bounced lost momentum strongly off resistance when it did try to bounce. Next few days will give a better direction as to where it will head short term ie Daily charts.

DTM · 23 October 2005

Gold has bounced. A little bit lower than where I had my first support line but it doesn't look like a strong bounce. Am expecting a target of $470 before it continues down to my first target of $455. Look for the relationship between gold and the USD ie effect on the Aussie.

DTM · 24 October 2005

My interpretation of Gold in Elliot wave theory. Marketwaves may correct me but so far this is what I think it looks like.

Gold in the weekly chart is entering Wave 4 and in the daily charts, its nearly there. If I am correct, we may still see a bounce in the Aussie and our markets.

wavepicker · 24 October 2005

In my opinion if gold has not topped then it has just one last leg up to approximately 480. We had a contracting triangle preceding this upward wave 5 move. Contracting triangles always precede the last move in a sequence. Gold should correct dramatically after that. Maybe later on in 1 year it may bottom resume it's uptrend, too early to tell.

I think the AUDUSD will rally along with all the other foreign currencies in the next 4-6 weeks, but it's rally will be anaemic in comparison to the other currencies. Personally my target for Aussie is 64/65c within 12 months and for the EURUSD 1.01/1.02 over the same period.

Good luck to all.

DTM · 25 October 2005

wavepicker said:
In my opinion if gold has not topped then it has just one last leg up to approximately 480. We had a contracting triangle preceding this upward wave 5 move. Contracting triangles always precede the last move in a sequence. Gold should correct dramatically after that. Maybe later on in 1 year it may bottom resume it's uptrend, too early to tell.

I think the AUDUSD will rally along with all the other foreign currencies in the next 4-6 weeks, but it's rally will be anaemic in comparison to the other currencies. Personally my target for Aussie is 64/65c within 12 months and for the EURUSD 1.01/1.02 over the same period.

Good luck to all.

I agree with you Wavepicker. I'm very bearish in outlook on the Aussie and gold.

DTM · 2 November 2005

I haven't looked at things for a while but it looks like the Aussies heading into oversold area. Its looking for support but will support hold?? I doubt it but next few days will tell.

XJO looks like its going to retest the resistance turned support.

DTM · 2 November 2005

Gold looks like its been over sold too. It had hit the previous support/resistance and has bounced back but looks to go back up. Oil looks oversold on daily charts too so look for a bounce.

DTM · 7 November 2005

DTM said:
Gold looks like its been over sold too. It had hit the previous support/resistance and has bounced back but looks to go back up. Oil looks oversold on daily charts too so look for a bounce.

And its bounced before it carries on its way down. Its hit my initial target of $455 (it took a bit longer than anticipated) and now looking for support. Outlook for the Aussie dollars not so good. Oil has found support around the $60 mark and is building a base.

DTM · 7 November 2005

DTM said:
I haven't looked at things for a while but it looks like the Aussies heading into oversold area. Its looking for support but will support hold?? I doubt it but next few days will tell.

XJO looks like its going to retest the resistance turned support.

And whooshka goes the Aussie dollar. Its looking for support now. Once the Aussie dollar establishes a falling trend line, all the banks who borrowed overseas funds to finance the housing boom will be in trouble. The Aussie still has a little bit of life left yet IMO but long term, we are looking at a strong USD and a weak Aussie.

XJO retested support and bounced 60 odd points in one day.

Look at the relationship of the Aussie dollar to the XJO. Doesn't look good short term.

DTM · 8 November 2005

Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

DTM said:
Whilst the XJO and Aussie dollar is showing some weakness, the banking sector is still looking strong. Having looked at it properly, I can see that it is still in an elliot wave 3. The banking sector XXJ doesn't show any correlation with the Aussie dollar. If the reversal signal is correct, ie a correction will start, it will drop to significant support before bouncing and rising to new heights. Next week will tell the market which it will head so no direction is assumed until the markets shows us the direction.

This week will make for an interesting week.

CBA's now leading the charge. It has bounced back very strongly to higher levels than its previous high and has always been one of my leading indicators. Seems like we are on an Elliot wave 5 now with the banking sector.

DTM · 14 November 2005

DTM said:
And its bounced before it carries on its way down. Its hit my initial target of $455 (it took a bit longer than anticipated) and now looking for support. Outlook for the Aussie dollars not so good. Oil has found support around the $60 mark and is building a base.

Gold has bounced off my initial target of $455 to $470 but is now hitting resistance. Look for gold to start turning around again, but wait for the candlesticks to give you the out look.

Bit of Byte · 16 November 2005

Great Thread Dude!

How do I demo OPtiongear sw?

I have visited their homepage - not very clear asto how I get a trial sw...

DTM · 16 November 2005

Bit of Byte said:
Great Thread Dude!

How do I demo OPtiongear sw?

I have visited their homepage - not very clear asto how I get a trial sw...

Hi Bit of Byte,

not sure if they do demos but if you email I'm sure they'd reply.

Daniel

DTM · 20 November 2005

DTM said:
Gold looks like its been over sold too. It had hit the previous support/resistance and has bounced back but looks to go back up. Oil looks oversold on daily charts too so look for a bounce.

I had posted this on 2nd November with a chart showing gold descending into an elliot wave 4 on the daily charts. It now has bounced back strongly to $487 to complete the elliot wave 5. I'm waiting for Gold to look overbought around hit a peak of around $492 before beginning its Wave 4 descent on the weekly charts.

This should not be taken seriously as I'm only new to elliot wave and have not been able to dedicate the time to studying it properly. I haven't also been able to dedicate time to looking at the markets because I've been busy building up a business.

PS I did find out something extremely useful about elliot waves but will have to test it out much later. Its only in the theory stage.

MARKETWAVES · 20 November 2005

Remember, to have an idea where you want to get out when you enter a trade....
by the way stay close to DTM.... he seems to have mastered the ability to see short term moves through the use of western oscillators...

Personally I don't care for them and think that they are all lagging indicators and were created long after Eastern Technicals... meaning Asia....

Technical Analysis was around in the East long before the West .....
Oscillators are western ........(ex- stochastics MACD, Bolinger Bands , etc )
Sorry, don't have time to elaborate ......

HERE IS WHAT I SEE .....

NO OSCILATORS NEEDED... ( IN MOST CASES ) ......

The AUD/USD has become oversold many days now .....
It now appears to have made a Triple Bottom Formation..

TAKE A LOOK ....Maybe you agree ...?

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TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …

MARKETWAVES · 20 November 2005

pg-2.............

DTM · 26 November 2005

And for my elliot count, which is not as glamorous or knowledgeable as Market's.

I'm not experienced in elliot wave and this is only my opinion.

MARKETWAVES · 27 November 2005

3 charts

for Thanksgiving USA ...........
---------------------------------------------------

MASSIVE RISING CHANNEL FORMATION ,

Is this finding support ? You be the Judge ......

Sure looks inviting .....

---------------------------------------------------------------------
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …

RichKid · 27 November 2005

MARKETWAVES said:
Is this finding support ? You be the Judge ......

Sure looks inviting .....

Looks like the uptrend is continuing in force, your view has been consistent since you first started following this. I'm keeping an eye on the USD index to see if it'll break below that earlier high again.

MARKETWAVES · 30 November 2005

This is a continuation from the post above

Here's an update to the charts poted here earlier last week

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The trend is not your friend ...........
( only if you are a trend trader )

Support is your friend ........ Again no oscillators needed ....

AUSSIE DOLLAR...here we go again? Intermarket Analysis

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