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AUSSIE DOLLAR...here we go again? Intermarket Analysis

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Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

OK. Aussie dollar up against the USD on the support/first target I had drawn in last week. Its showing a positive reversal, but I don't thinks its going to be a strong bounce.

Oil, gold, copper looks over bought, so could be heading for a fall in next few days, tomorrow even.

10 year bonds have taken a hiding too before next weeks Reserve bank meeting.
 

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Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

And the corresponding jump on the XJO after the dollar went up today. Notice how its at its peak Fibonacci levels and showing that its at a major resistance level.
 

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Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

OK. Today the Aussie's bounce is stalling and starting to lose momentum. It should start falling again.

The XJO is showing a bad....., bad....., sign. Its fallen back on support but its a very bearish move.

Will elaborate more tomorrow when I have time but its looking all black. I said today that equities have had their run and its looking that way.

Time to move on to a new asset class or be selective in what you choose.
 

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Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?


Whilst the XJO and Aussie dollar is showing some weakness, the banking sector is still looking strong. Having looked at it properly, I can see that it is still in an elliot wave 3. The banking sector XXJ doesn't show any correlation with the Aussie dollar. If the reversal signal is correct, ie a correction will start, it will drop to significant support before bouncing and rising to new heights. Next week will tell the market which it will head so no direction is assumed until the markets shows us the direction.

This week will make for an interesting week.

Fearful prediction (in case I look like an @ss), Aussie dollar to retest support of around .7540 before heading up. Will post chart of support and resistance when I get a chance.
 

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Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

The Aussies not getting through resistance from the up and down projected resistance lines. Tomorrow will test if resistance is broken or kept intact.

I've redrawn my long term support and this a strong position. Once it starts breaking through this (could take a long time) than the Aussie could find itself in a bad place. The US dollar is looking like its bottomed out.

Fundamentally, the US has a high deficit, but in comparison to ours, its about the same percentage wise. I personally think that the value of the dollar has more to do than the deficit than higher interest rates. The strength of the USD has no correlation with either higher interest rates or a strong economy.

If the Aussie drops, we could expect overseas funds to start withdrawing their USD investments.
 

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Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

OUCH!!!!


KUURASH!!!

Lots of volatility to come.

 

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Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

The Aussies swimming in red. The Reserve Bank's failure to lift interest rates has left the Aussie dollar drowning so to speak which in turn has overseas money leaving our shores in my opinion. If the Aussie breaks through long term support (thick red line) then it will change the weekly and monthly dynamics. ie breaking of the pattern.
 

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Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

And the flight from equities (XJO) once our dollar looks like its going down.
 

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Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

OK, Aussie dollar is on major long term support but momentum has built up and it looks like its going to smash through. The size of the drop shows that people are leaving their Aussie dollar positions and Aussie markets.
 

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Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

The XJO looks really bad, although its resting on support or there abouts.
 

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Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

OK, the Aussies trying to stay up above my long term support ie the thick red line. So far, momentum is down on the daily charts but support is holding. Look for a bounce in the XJO and XXJ if support holds.

I also have my elliot wave count on the monthly charts for those interested. The Aussie is on its way down.


 

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Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?


Earlier I posted this and it was on the cusp of the elliot wave 4. It should hold true that this sector will bounce stronger than the others once it finds the bottom. Might not be the bottom yet but follow the Aussie dollar for direction.

 

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Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Gold is heading into way over bought area.

Implications on the USD??? Not good for equities.



 

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Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

Short term trading:

Aussie dollars holding and momentum is changing to go up short term. Look for a bounce. XJO intraday looks like its bottomed out and looks like time to go long but am wary of the dead cats bounce.

Personally, I would wait to confirm that a fake bounce occurs because it then gives you an oversold signal, giving your trade a higher chance of success.



 

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Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

DTM said:
Gold is heading into way over bought area.

Implications on the USD??? Not good for equities.

Click to expand...

Nice chart DTM, it could also be interpreted as showing higher highs and higher lows in a strong uptrend, prices are congesting prior to a strong move. Just another view.
 
Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

RichKid said:
Nice chart DTM, it could also be interpreted as showing higher highs and higher lows in a strong uptrend, prices are congesting prior to a strong move. Just another view.
Click to expand...

Hi Rich,

it may be that you're right because I haven't had a chance to really look at it. I only glanced at it and will look at it properly over the weekend when I get the chance. Been very busy lately.

XJO bounced today as I thought it would. Aussie dollar sold off below major support line and its find support at where it is now. It looks like its been oversold but will be able to tell more in the next few days. I expect the Aussie to really fight to stay above major support. Its teetering on the brink and if it falls off it, it will fall by a lot.

Will post charts later.
 
Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

The Aussies showing signs of being oversold. Support holding and candlesticks are looking for a bounce.
 

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Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

DTM said:
Hi Rich,

it may be that you're right because I haven't had a chance to really look at it. I only glanced at it and will look at it properly over the weekend when I get the chance. Been very busy lately.
Click to expand...

Hi DTM,
No drama, just theory, hard to predict things accurately imo, just a matter of probabilities.

Gold: Just a view again, could break either way but trend is up so that's what I guessed based on the general trend and short term bullish pattern. So if I had to bet I'd bet up. Not unusual in my short experience to see a false break down and then a strong rally to higher highs for this type of pattern.
 
Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?


Rich, I haven't done the full analysis yet. Short term, ie daily and weekly charts, direction is down. Gold is on a support line right now but is on its way down. If this support holds, it won't be for too long. My next expected target is $455.
 

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Re: AUSSIE DOLLAR ... here we go again ?

'Fell of the edge'- sure did DTM! Sometimes these triangle things have false breaks and then recover in the line of the general trend but looking more like a retracement is likely to about where you mention.
 
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