AUSSIE DOLLAR...here we go again? Intermarket Analysis

Kauri · 22 June 2007

Hi TradeIt,
In a bit of a vacumn at the moment, not much economic news due today/tonight so no drivers to move it either way... the retrace wasn't near deep enough for me to call a W2, would have liked to see at least a 38% dip .. so will wait it out and let it develop... could be forming into an ascending triangle, if it is and breaks to the upside that would suggest to me that the W2, albeit shallow, is indeed in and we could be looking at the next leg up...
The first Fib Time Blitz point has come and gone... maybe the next one will inspire a reaction??? (Off to ask the Budgies what they think)
....Cheers
...........Kauri

Kauri · 22 June 2007

Didn't get to take a pyramid trade on the break due to the shallow W2... at least the short-term part of the trade now has its stop set in the money.... and the possible break has come slap bang in the middle of the two Fib Time blitz points??? I still have no time for time.. ..

>Apocalypto< · 22 June 2007

Yep.........

I saw it to Kauri,

put a couple contracts long when i saw it breaking resistence,

tightish stop in place in case it cant manage to hold it push see where this goes.

Kauri · 22 June 2007

Trade_It said:
Yep.........

I saw it to Kauri,

put a couple contracts long when i saw it breaking resistence,

tightish stop in place in case it cant manage to hold it push see where this goes.

Trade_it,
You're a lot shorter time frame than me so it probably won't worry your trade but for mine I wouldn't be surprised to see her break down in a lower degree wave like the one I have attached???
Cheers
...Kauri

Kauri · 23 June 2007

Looks like the minor W2 is in, now to see if it rebounds and carries on upwards???...

Kauri · 26 June 2007

As allways the minor waves give me trouble labelling them, regardless it still looks like the minor W2 may be in, the "message between the lines" in the FOMC release later this week will set the tone I guess.....

Kauri · 26 June 2007

Have moved the pyramided long-term stop up, now both long-term trades are in the money... ..

Kauri · 27 June 2007

Well that has closed out all the open trades.... will watch and see what happens from here... looks like my count is out of kilter somewhere..
.......Cheers
.........Kauri

>Apocalypto< · 27 June 2007

Karui,

I was caught last night again!

Saw it moving and breaking resistance and when it hit 85 I was thinking rather positive.

Well woke up to a stop and now it seams to be making a minor retrace, I will be watching to see where it gets down to the main trend line. Looking for resistance line to be broken with support. Pointing to a 38% retrace but my eye's are open.

I see gold is in a short term down move us dollar related?

TraderPro · 27 June 2007

Hey guys... do you use any trading systems when you trade the Aussie Dollar? All I see in this thread is a lot of technical talk... hehe

What software/dealer are your charts from Kauri and Trade-It?

I've watched the dollar go from 85 cents last night to where it is now around 84.08 cents... I just heard some analyst on TV say that the dollar remains volatile and it can keep going up or crashing down... What's your take?

>Apocalypto< · 27 June 2007

TraderPro said:
Hey guys... do you use any trading systems when you trade the Aussie Dollar? All I see in this thread is a lot of technical talk... hehe

What software/dealer are your charts from Kauri and Trade-It?

I've watched the dollar go from 85 cents last night to where it is now around 84.08 cents... I just heard some analyst on TV say that the dollar remains volatile and it can keep going up or crashing down... What's your take?

Hi trader pro,

I don't use a mechanical trading system just what's on my chart. I use Ig markets and there charts, to get the long term view I look at various sites that offer monthly charts of the AUD

the analyst made a rather obvious statement my girl friend could have told me that!

Based on what is happening right now I would not rush into any longs a retracement is in force coming back to its 38% Fibb support level.

I was long last night when it just tried to move over 85, that was a strong wall that proved to high for now at least.

there is another resistance point under 85 at 84.80 that still stands.

I am looking for support to be found and a new break off that point with a breaking of the minor downward line to go long again.

**if you decide to go long or short off any opinion i have, you do so at your own peril**

cheers
joseph

>Apocalypto< · 28 June 2007

I dont know what happened in the aussie dollar today but what ever caused this was big!

Got in and well its just gone!

OK technicals.

Took a long due to strong rebound that came from the 50% fibb point. the selling bounced off a previous support point I had in. still moving a long its trend, + double bottom.

Minor resistance line to beat now plus mayor resistence1 84.8 and 2 85.

Stop under the 61% retrace point of the current period at 8390

Lets see where this goes!

TraderPro · 30 June 2007

Thanks Trade_It aka Joseph...

I found this commentary in the news section of CMC's software:

Buy AUD/USD 1-month butterflies to position for market doldrums into N. Hemisphere summer: exploit vol spike with strictly limited-risk play to take in premium, capture time decay, earn high yield if spot behaves.
Sell July 31 AUD/USD ATMF (0.8425) straddle from 7.60% vol, buy 10-delta (0.8157/0.8695) strangle from 8.10% for net credit of 135 USD pips, or $135,000 on AUD10 million notional - getting long the 10-delta butterfly for 0.50 vol point.

Maximum risk limited to difference between straddle strike and strangle's high or low strike. Set low strike below expected support, high strike above expected resistance. Traders can morph exposure to suit changing views as butterfly is equivalent to call spread plus put spread, as well as short straddle plus long strangle.

If AUD/USD vols decline but spot looks biased higher, butterfly holder could buy back short ATMF call, sell the OTM call, effectively taking profits on short call spread, retaining short put spread.

For those comfortable with outright negative gamma and confident AUD/USD spot will regain composure, consider selling ATMF straddle outright initially, waiting for vols to fall before adding long wing vol. This improves position's risk:reward but exposes trader to unbounded risk until long strangle is added.
Traders can also leg into butterfly by selling call spread at top of expected spot range, waiting for spot to fall near expected support before completing butterfly by selling put spread. This also improves risk:reward, while keeping exposure strictly limited to difference between strikes.

Is there anyone out there that can explain this analysis? It sounds like they're talking about options or forwards on the currency position...

>Apocalypto< · 2 July 2007

TraderPro said:
Thanks Trade_It aka Joseph...

I found this commentary in the news section of CMC's software:

Is there anyone out there that can explain this analysis? It sounds like they're talking about options or forwards on the currency position...

Yes Trader Pro

They are option strategies for the spot and forwards prices.

Kauri · 15 August 2007

Might be due for a bit of a bounce???
Cheers
.......Kauri

DTM · 28 August 2007

I took the trade around 3pm today because the Aussie looked like it was double bottoming out on the 5min time frame and bought around 8.216 but didn't read the signal properly as it went down to around 8.208 before moving up. It has now moved up very strongly and seems to be bottoming out on the short term charts.

I just sold out a few minutes ago at .8272 where it was hitting my resistance level.

I haven't put up a chart because I'm using Chart station (which is a free online charting software) and I don't know how to save the charts onto my computer. I wish it was a bit more functional but it has enough to get the job done.

I did post the trade around 3pm but must have done something wrong submitting it because it hasn't showed up.

If someone could post a chart it would be great.

Daniel

DTM · 28 August 2007

DTM said:
I just sold out a few minutes ago at .8272 where it was hitting my resistance level.

The resistance turned support line of around .8272 didn't hold and has fallen through to .8760. It's still looks strong and appears to be on solid support but am going off to bed now.

professor_frink · 28 August 2007

DTM said:
I took the trade around 3pm today because the Aussie looked like it was double bottoming out on the 5min time frame and bought around 8.216 but didn't read the signal properly as it went down to around 8.208 before moving up. It has now moved up very strongly and seems to be bottoming out on the short term charts.

I just sold out a few minutes ago at .8272 where it was hitting my resistance level.

I haven't put up a chart because I'm using Chart station (which is a free online charting software) and I don't know how to save the charts onto my computer. I wish it was a bit more functional but it has enough to get the job done.

I did post the trade around 3pm but must have done something wrong submitting it because it hasn't showed up.

If someone could post a chart it would be great.

Daniel

here you go Daniel-

DTM · 29 August 2007

Thanks for the chart professor.

Wow..., did any one catch that movement down?? It showed the double top in the 5 min time frame after I went to bed and it was a nice movement down. Its currently sitting on a major support of mine at .808 and looks to be holding.

I'll take a look again this afternoon but for now am off to the Gym.

DTM · 29 August 2007

Looking at todays movements, my support held and we had some nice movements up today. It seems to have hit resistance at .8200 before retreating and looks like its going to have a run at it again. I just took the trade at .8172 and have set my stop at .8160 with a target of the previous day's high.

I'm using the minute chart frame to time entry and this looks like a short term trade.

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