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SPI

Higher weekly open on the SPI and expectation of a 2-day stall rotation down.

2nd day of the rotation breaks the 3-day lows (6744) and heads

into the weekly 50% level @ 6690. This is the first time is a

number of weeks that the 3-day cycle trend has broken. (first

sign of confirmed weakness)

Whenever there is a break of the 3-day lows, the expectation is

that the next day will swing upwards and move into a 2-day

counter-trend move.

That will depend on how far the market moves down today,

 and tomorrow’s open, based on US markets.

 However I wouldn’t want to be trading longs below 6744 today…

Looking at US markets…

Last weeks drop, then 2-day up move, and this week’s break of the

 3-week 50% level on Monday, and it is the first time that

weakness is confirmed on both the DOW and ES…

Whilst price is trading below both 50% levels the trend is

down.

The only bullish price action would see a daily ‘hook’ back

inside the 50% levels, then the expectation is that the market

will swing back towards the 3-day highs on both markets, using

the 50% level as support..,this will drag the SPI higher.

 Otherwise with all markets trading below the previous 3-day lows this 5-day (weekly) trend is down….

Note: 2-day counter-trend move has a random length, it

can consolidate around these lows, or it can easily make it's

way back towards the recent 3-day highs...

Note: there are no higher timeframe (monthly) showing forward drops suggesting major weakness in global markets. It's simply looking at the current price action and making judgement calls.

Sold 30% of margin positions today, still 70% held on leverage.

100% committed and holding on long term portfolio. (never sell)

Frank