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----- Original Message ----- 

From: frankd@fdtradeco 

Sent: Thursday, September 27, 2007 10:37 AM

Subject: Dilernia Report 27th Sept part 1

 

44- points up is 6609

 

The same analysis applies,.. 44- points up, then use 6603 as a guide if wanting to trade down.... (higher risk trade)  

 

i.e.  higher spiral stop open and coming down... (Dilernia pivot) 

Each 87 points (spiral-point) will normally produce some selling around the highs, or some buying around the lows. It doesn't mean there is going to be a major reversal from a spiral point, it just means 'Risk' has increased around those levels....But most 'reversals' in the market will occur from a spiral top.

 therefore 3 things can happen for an intraday trader.

1. trade into the Spiral point(completion) from a lower open and exit.

2. Trade shorts from a spiral point using partial exit tactics on the way down

3  or don't trade.

Tactics can be trading 44-point moves, or splitting up the partial exits into 22 points and then 44 points. It all depends on how many contracts you are trading. You need to adjust tactics and exposure based on market volatility and market direction

As the old adage goes 'trade with the trend'....You'll make money trading with the trend. However you don't always need a trend to make money. There are always exhaustion points in the market, but you need to minimise exposure. It's not always wise to trade max exposure on every trade.

I've always been told, every trade starts from a trend or is a trust out of a congestion area,  that might be the case when trading equites,but it's not always the case when trading derivatives.

There are always players that like to come into the market around certain ranges trying to push the short-term trend in the opposite before the overall trend continues. It's those points in the market that allow the trader to enter, exit or not trade at all.

You heard me say this many times before....

"I’ll be introducing and identifying a ‘new’ pattern that has a statistically significant chance of price follow through. These patterns are called ‘Spiral-Points ©’: they are dynamic support and resistance levels that define the direction of the market and the high probable expectant outcome. Spiral-points are ideal for day trading derivative markets; they are an excellent timing tool to get you in and out of the market, thereby allowing you the potential to capitalize on intra-day moves. Spiral-points are extremely important because they become ideal entry points; important because of least capital risk, and important because they’re closest to your initial stop loss point.  

There are a few market patterns that occur with such unbelievable regularity that traders must become aware of them. No one, to my knowledge has engaged in more in-depth research (in this area). The principle concept is simply support and resistance. It’s one of the most important elements of technical trading. Why? Because it eliminates most of the guesswork and allows you to make logical, well-supported trading decisions" (2005)

Frank Dilernia