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With every reason to move higher this week due to the change 

of monthly timeframes this consolidating pattern and 

sideways movement this week has now a ‘dilernia-drop’  in

 the forward trading week.  It is not a foregone conclusion but

 a drop in the forward week often sends the market down into 

the close of the trading week. If this is the case, then 

if Friday prices are trading below the September 50% level 

then downside expectation would be towards the 3-day lows and

 3-week 50% levels.  (7th September)

DOW...

Prices pushed down into the 3-day lows and 3-week 50% level

 and supported, and with the break of the 3-day lows the

expectation is that there should be a rotation upwards next

 week. Probability occurs after a change of cycle that the

market will rotate up 1-2 days….

How far that 1 day rotates is important because, a ‘hook’ and 

close back inside the 3-week 50% level @ 13235 can send the

 market back upwards towards the September 50% level again and 

3-day highs, as occurred the previous week.  (13235 as support).

This also aligns with a lower weekly open next week, because

if markets are consolidating and moving in a sideways pattern,

then a lower weekly open and the bias it to close upwards 

into Friday next week.

There is a lot of talk around at the moment that 55 days out

from the start of the downside move, a 2nd wave of selling hits

 the markets, most ‘crash patterns’ have historically followed this pattern, as pointed out by others.

55-days from the highs as pointed out is September 12, this

aligns with an up-day on Monday, but how far Monday moves upward

is critical, because the 3-week 50% level is going to 

define the trend for the rest of the week (resistance)

ES

Prices followed the Dilernia drop into the 3-day lows, and

the exact same set-up next week as the DOW for next week, the

 September 50% levels and especially the 3-week 50% level

should give trades a fair idea about the direction of the

 market, after a 1-2 day upward rotation (random length)

Educational post

Frank Dilernia