AGL - AGL Energy

nikkothescorpio · 15 October 2007

Hi,

I wondered if anyone could explain to me why the market is hammering AGK so hard today?

I noted their profit downgrade, but unless I'm missing something the selloff on the market is either really over the top or I've missed some detail badly.

Its getting the absolute bejesus kicked out of it at present! Down nearly 18%

Cheers, Nikko

prawn_86 · 15 October 2007

Re: AGK - AGL Energy Limited

I havnt read the announcement, but i do know that the market does not like profit downgrades in top 200 stocks.

check out what happened to Downer EDI earlier in the year for an example.

may represent a buying opportunity once an uptrend is established

greenfs · 15 October 2007

Re: AGK - AGL Energy

The reason for the extent of the price drop is based around the No. 1 man about 4 mos ago having given the market, including Baillieu, assurances that everything was in line with previous forecasts. He better have a blxxdy good reason or he might be without a job.

If you cannot trust management on such matters then you are better off in other stocks and in this regard I am taking my holdings (some of my hard earned Super) away from this company as there are quite obviously better investment scenarios.

Story is not unlike Sigma (SIP) from a couple of months back.

greenfs · 15 October 2007

Re: AGK - AGL Energy

In the opinion of my broker this stock has been oversold today and now represents good buying value at anything less than $14.50. Whilst the forecast profit has been reduced by 10%, this is partly due to a one off item. Therefore, as some time goes by we could soon see this stock above $15. Interesting times.

I hope that this is not the first of a number of profit downgrades or we might soon find ourselves running towards a bear market. I for one expect most of the major lenders may have to revisit theit forecasts as, in my capacity as a mortgage broker, I am aware that lending volumes HAVE reduced substantially.

prawn_86 · 15 October 2007

Re: AGK - AGL Energy

lol one bad announcement isnt really enough to kick off a bear market is it greens?

i will look into AGL tonight and see if they are worth buying IMO.

Brengun · 19 October 2007

Re: AGK - AGL Energy

I just got some for $12.99. What a drop! Not a closely watched stock for me but I just happened to get bored and check my wishlist and the rediculously low buy prices I have on it and AGK was way under it.

Quasar217 · 26 October 2007

Re: AGK - AGL Energy

Almost down to $12 today. I also bought in around the $13 mark, thinking it a bargain. Is this one coming back? Time to buy more or ditch?

all-green-plz · 26 October 2007

Re: AGK - AGL Energy

Quasar217 said:
Almost down to $12 today. I also bought in around the $13 mark, thinking it a bargain. Is this one coming back? Time to buy more or ditch?

i am in the same boat as you are, entered at $13.10, thinking it was a bargain.. but i dunno where it is heading now.... or should i cut my loss and abandone ship?

Flyer · 26 October 2007

Re: AGK - AGL Energy

AGL has been through a few dips before. The same as some other great companies.

It will be back over $18, the question is when. I think there is more bad news coming though.

In the mean time they will pay a good dividend, sometimes even a special dividend.

This one is purely for your super or long term, not a trading stock.

zengin · 29 October 2007

Re: AGK - AGL Energy

Hi Guys

Iam also in the same boat plus little bit worse of , I got in it when there were $13.32 thinking it was a bargain How wrong was I.
I think you guys right it is not a trade stock , it may be good for long term.
I wish I had some Jubile mines stock

vishalt · 29 October 2007

Re: AGK - AGL Energy

You're right on the ball flyer, Utilities = defense.

Shame AGL's CEO was a loser, but the brand is still good, AGL powers a hell of a lot of homes.

marklar · 17 December 2007

Re: AGK - AGL Energy

A few announcements out today, project Phoenix looks like it is the reason I've been stuck on hold for 3 hours+ trying to sort out an electricity account problem. Lucky I'm not a shareholder, treat your customers like crap and they'll leave...

m.

hardcoremike · 28 December 2007

Re: AGK - AGL Energy

i started doing some basic "technical analysis" on this stock. for the past 2 months i can see a falling wedge forming and is about to lead to a bearish trend.

can anyone confirm this? don't have images atm.

cheers

Ashsaege · 28 December 2007

Re: AGK - AGL Energy

Can you please explain to me what a bearish trend is? Im pretty new to all of is... on a steep learning curve

hardcoremike · 28 December 2007

Re: AGK - AGL Energy

g'day .what i actually meant was it looks to be a rising wedge
it has resistance at aroud 13.50, and the lows of the past 2 months just keep on getting higher hence the two will converge.

but the problem is that the highs are not getting higher, dont know if that still is suffice for it

this site has a better explanation.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku...._analysis:chart_patterns:rising_wedge_reversa

Tysonboss1 · 3 February 2008

Re: AGK - AGL Energy

I think AGL is a great longterm hold, They have a great mix of assets and I think they will perform quite well over the coming years as we see oil peaking.

AGL on a p/e of 11 has to be great buying, At this price I may buy some on margin.

Trader Paul · 19 May 2008

Re: AGK - AGL Energy

Hi folks,

AGK ... looking for some significant and positive news, early
this week, as 4 positive time cycles come out to play .....

...... this could be very BIIG news ... !~!

have a great day

paul

=====

Sakk · 1 September 2008

Re: AGK - AGL Energy

As stated in the JBH thread I was flicking through ASX stocks, AGK signaled a strong bottom reversal signal right on support.

A good low risk entry, risking 0.40 with a potential target at 14.50 currently if holding it would be a 4.5R open winner.

I'm starting to think I should pay more attention to the Aussie market

Sir Osisofliver · 1 September 2008

Re: AGK - AGL Energy

Sorry if I'm telling you something that you already know...AGK holds 30% of QGC (Queensland Gas Company). QGC negotiated this to make them bulletproof from the Santos takeover offer. During the last 18 months QGC has gone from 1.34 to 4.20 (and as high as 6.39) adding a tidy ~700M to AGK's coffers.

Be aware of the effect that this can have on your technical analysis - I'd suggest doing an overlay chart to try and separate QGC gain from AGK's share price movement's to get a clearer picture.

Sir O.

Sakk · 1 September 2008

Re: AGK - AGL Energy

Sir Osisofliver said:
Sorry if I'm telling you something that you already know...AGK holds 30% of QGC (Queensland Gas Company). QGC negotiated this to make them bulletproof from the Santos takeover offer. During the last 18 months QGC has gone from 1.34 to 4.20 (and as high as 6.39) adding a tidy ~700M to AGK's coffers.

Be aware of the effect that this can have on your technical analysis - I'd suggest doing an overlay chart to try and separate QGC gain from AGK's share price movement's to get a clearer picture.

Sir O.

Here's the chart

Which would you rather hold?

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AGL - AGL Energy

nikkothescorpio

prawn_86

Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata

greenfs

greenfs

prawn_86

Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata

Brengun

Quasar217

all-green-plz

Flyer

zengin

vishalt

marklar

hardcoremike

Ashsaege

hardcoremike

Tysonboss1

Trader Paul

Sakk

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Sir Osisofliver

Sakk

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