AEV - Avenira Limited

grace · 19 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

From Markcoinoz supplied link, I think these are important points for holders of MAK to consider. You might want to do some research on Morocco to see what their export potential is over the next 2 years prior to MAK becoming a potential miner....

Phosphate - Demand

With an increment of 4.2 million tonnes during the outlook period, the
expected annual growth rate in world demand for phosphate fertilizers is
about 2.0%. About 71% of this growth will take place in Asia and 21%
in America.

The largest consumers will be East Asia, South Asia and North
America and main importers will be South Asia, Latin America and West
Europe. The main contributors to increase in world consumption will be South Asia (35.8%), East Asia (33.8%) and Latin America (18.3%).

Phosphate - Supply

World phosphate fertilizer supply is forecast to increase by 6.3 million
tonnes by 2011/2012 at a growth rate of 3.2% per annum. It is estimated
that a surplus of some 0.4 million tonnes at the beginning of the period
will increase to 2.9 million tonnes in 2011/2012.

Areas with the largest production will be East Asia, North America
and Africa, with Africa and North America having the largest surpluses
for export.

Adam A · 19 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Gday grace

Ive read thru that article re the future forecasts

Nowhere, did i see his forecast of china imposing a 135% tariff on exports of fertilizer,now this tariff is only for six months, but as prawn pointed, out many things can happen in the future that are unplanned for.

All shares carry some sort of risk, even the blue chips,look at the banks, why even toll holdings as of thursday was struck a broadside blow

Once most of the risk are removed the major gains imho are gone

Thinking out loud i allso wonder what the time frame to (production) will be if the drilling of aruwurra (due to start in the next few weeks) produces out crop assays 0f over 30%

grace · 19 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

This is certainly news to me and a very intereting read. Perhaps a major reason for IPL assisting Nauru to start mining again, was to sure up supply.

Certainly hope working conditions here are better

http://www.newscientist.com/blog/environment/2008/03/freds-footprint-treasure-in-desert.html

A billion or so of rock phosphate - wow!

champ2003 · 19 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

grace said:
India has just renewed contract for their needs with the Moroccon government as posted earlier in this thread.

Sorry, the formatting is out, but the bottem line is important (estimated surplus of supply over demand of rock phosphate in thousands of tonnes going forward to 2011/12).

I think going on this us farmers are being taken for a ride!

Grace these figures are based off a perfect scenario where supply is growing and exports are authorised by those countries to distribute throughout the world. The problem that is occuring fast is that alot of exporting countries are placing massive export taxes on phosphate therefore discouraging exports. So as supply constraints happen the tighter the market becomes and the prices remain high or go even higher.

These figures are to be revised when the next issue is released as everything has recently changed especially with China placing 135% export taxes on fertilizer exports stripping at least 20% of supply from the market.

champ2003 · 19 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Adam A said:
Fair call
Thought i was on the other forum

Still FMG isnt technically, profitable either?

And i think MAK is a little bit further than just at exploration stage

My enthusiasm for this stock does get ahead of me thou

dyor

all the best

Exactly!

MAK isn't an explorer any longer. It is in it's early days of developement and is being re- rated accordingly. It already has JORC resource and is now drilling to expand.

Cheers!

Markcoinoz · 19 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Adam A,

I feel sorry for the poor guy who wrote that report before these changes took place.

- Bio fuel increase
- China imposing 135% Export tax.
- Africa going through its own energy crisis.
- Oil prices going through the roof.

The Aruwurra drilling is an important milestone for MAK considering it could very likely be fast tracked as DSO. Looks like we have an exciting few months ahead of us.

Cheers markcoinoz

champ2003 · 19 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

champ2003 said:
Exactly!

MAK isn't an explorer any longer. It is in it's early days of developement and is being re- rated accordingly. It already has JORC resource and is now drilling to expand.

Cheers!

And lets not forget that people are just starting to get into MAK for their Tin/Tungsten projects as well as that is another boom market on its way. MAK is geared up and ready to take on that market in the near future as well.

These other potentially large projects reduces the risk when investing into MAK because if one project doesn't quite meet expectations another one will.

All looking good for the future IMO.

grace · 20 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

champ2003 said:
Grace these figures are based off a perfect scenario where supply is growing and exports are authorised by those countries to distribute throughout the world. The problem that is occuring fast is that alot of exporting countries are placing massive export taxes on phosphate therefore discouraging exports. So as supply constraints happen the tighter the market becomes and the prices remain high or go even higher.

These figures are to be revised when the next issue is released as everything has recently changed especially with China placing 135% export taxes on fertilizer exports stripping at least 20% of supply from the market.

If you believe in the China growth story, this is an interesting company

http://www.spur-ventures.com/_resources/CompanyFactsheet.pdf

Fertilizer Phosphates in China
• China accounts for 31% of P production and 29% of P demand
globally
• China has 6.6 billion tonnes of rock phosphate reserves, 37%
of global reserves
• China mines 50 million tonnes of rock phosphates each year
• 12 million nutrient tonnes of fertilizer phosphates are
consumed each year
• 2 million nutrient tonnes of fertilizer phosphates are imported
each year.

Spur Ventures Inc. aims to be the premier integrated fertilizer manufacturer in China, with plans to produce up to one million tonnes per year of high -quality compound phosphate fertilizer for domestic consumption in the central province of Hubei, China. These expansion plans include the development of the largest phosphate deposit in China, located near Yichang City.

Per my calcs....
China mines 50mill tonn = 31% world production and 29% of world demand.
50 / 31 x 100 = 161 million tonne world production of rock

China demand 29% = 46.7 million tonne

Previous export = 50 million tonne - 46.7 million tonne
= 3.3 million tonne (15% of their product)

So looks like a whole of 3.3 million tonne as a result of China not exporting. China may become an importer though, and this little company looks to be trying to add a little bit more Chinese production.

China likes to hang onto reserves (just look what they did to the rare earths industry, and they are the major world reserve and exporter there).

JTLP · 20 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Here is a completely random thought...

With population numbers rising and food shortages said to be all the rage, couldn't a non-governing body (say the UN) step up and strongly suggest to all nations to drop import/export taxes on food producing minerals (phosphate etc) so that food production becomes cheaper and the numbers are balanced out a bit more???

Maybe there is already a governing body that could enforce this??? Surely, for humanity's sake (as well as farmers) they aren't going to let this crazy phosphate price hike continue, as well as food prices rocketing out of control???

grace · 20 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Adam A said:
Gday grace

Ive read thru that article re the future forecasts

Nowhere, did i see his forecast of china imposing a 135% tariff on exports of fertilizer,now this tariff is only for six months, but as prawn pointed, out many things can happen in the future that are unplanned for.

Here is the info I found on those tarrifs at a different rate..????

Note that China has reduced production due to power shortages...

2008 Outlook (China)

The severe winter weather during the New Years Festival has caused significant crop damage for winter crops, fruits and vegetables. 11 million hectares or approximately 9% of China’s cropland has been affected. In addition, electrical interruptions caused the shut down of many fertilizer plants. Transportation interruptions also impacted the industry.

Since the only means to recover from these crop losses is to increase yields per hectare, the government has taken several steps to ensure adequate supplies of fertilizer for the 2008 domestic market. The government has imposed export tariffs of 35% on MAP, DAP and NPK’s from February 15 to September 30 and 20% from October 1 to December 31, 2008 and 30% on MOP, SOP and TSP for the remainder of this year.

Evangeline · 20 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hi Grace

From the latest fertreport:

"Indian DAP purchasing totalling around 400,000 tonnes and the confirmation of Chinese export duties on phosphates at 135% for DAP/MAP/NPKs dominate the phosphates market this week."

The 35% is on top of the 100% export tariff which was also recently imposed on DAP.

IPL's latest Asian conference presso predicts that world demand will be at 180million tons p.a. by 2010.

Adam A · 20 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Hi grace

Details on increase

(hope it works first post re link)

cheers

http://www.reuters.com/article/topNews/idUSPEK27931120080417?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews

adamim1 · 23 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

New interview with Andrew drummond after his trip overseas.

Any thoughts.

Shares dropping today, may be opportunity to buy some more.

Some good info on tin prices.

Sean K · 26 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

MAK chart has produced another flag on a pole, after some natural consolidation. Hopefully it continues to script with another break up, but could find it's way towards that upward trend line perhaps. At some stage it may go through a larger correction when the mc starts getting to a point where it's mc and potential return/value become more aligned. Still hard to say where that will be with longer term RP prices still an uncertainty and further feasability studies required. However, on the surface of it, if the initial $1b a year turnover eventuates as AD anticipates, then it's mc still seems undemanding. Happy to keep holding for some time in that regard.

champ2003 · 26 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

kennas said:
MAK chart has produced another flag on a pole, after some natural consolidation. Hopefully it continues to script with another break up, but could find it's way towards that upward trend line perhaps. At some stage it may go through a larger correction when the mc starts getting to a point where it's mc and potential return/value become more aligned. Still hard to say where that will be with longer term RP prices still an uncertainty and further feasability studies required. However, on the surface of it, if the initial $1b a year turnover eventuates as AD anticipates, then it's mc still seems undemanding. Happy to keep holding for some time in that regard.

Don't forget Tin Kennas,

Just when you think that it's just about as big as it can get MAK will come out with something else to surprise the market IMO. Having said that, it is no surprise to hear that MAK is becoming increasingly focussed on their Tin projects. LME Tin stocks are at their lowest and it's going to go a heck of alot lower in the short term pushing the price of Tin which is already just off all time highs through the roof. All great for the MAK train. The Iron Ore project will get a boost soon as well IMO through various developments currently taking place. Far too much potential with this company i say.

Just mind blowing!

Cheers!

Champ

champ2003 · 26 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

champ2003 said:
Don't forget Tin Kennas,

Just when you think that it's just about as big as it can get MAK will come out with something else to surprise the market IMO. Having said that, it is no surprise to hear that MAK is becoming increasingly focussed on their Tin projects. LME Tin stocks are at their lowest and it's going to go a heck of alot lower in the short term pushing the price of Tin which is already just off all time highs through the roof. All great for the MAK train. The Iron Ore project will get a boost soon as well IMO through various developments currently taking place. Far too much potential with this company i say.

Just mind blowing!

Cheers!

Champ

And don't forget that from the 1st May China will impose a 135% export tax which will last until at least September. Phosphate prices have a fair way to go yet IMO before they correct a little and then stabilize at high levels much the same way that oil did in its early days.

Cheers!

Champ

Sean K · 26 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

champ2003 said:
And don't forget that from the 1st May China will impose a 135% export tax which will last until at least September. Phosphate prices have a fair way to go yet IMO before they correct a little and then stabilize at high levels much the same way that oil did in its early days.

Cheers!

Champ

Champ, I've been soaking in all the data from all the world in regard to food shortages and the like and I'm getting more and more bullish towards any Ag stock. Moreso towards anything producing however! MAK need to keep the momentum flowing in this regard and not just be a tarding stock! Please AD, keep the news flowing!! Based just on Wonarah you will become a very, very wealthy individual!! Along with us long term holders!!!!

champ2003 · 26 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

kennas said:
Champ, I've been soaking in all the data from all the world in regard to food shortages and the like and I'm getting more and more bullish towards any Ag stock. Moreso towards anything producing however! MAK need to keep the momentum flowing in this regard and not just be a tarding stock! Please AD, keep the news flowing!! Based just on Wonarah you will become a very, very wealthy individual!! Along with us long term holders!!!!

Hey Kennas,

I'm sure that AD will keep the news flowing for Wonarah and Arruwurra. In his latest interview on BRR he said that he is absolutely focussed on advancing Wonarah however he is just being smart in also keeping up to spead with Tin.

A very smart man indeed. Lot's of good times to come IMO.

Cheers!

Champ

Markcoinoz · 26 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

Here is the Fertiliser report for this week.

http://fertilizerworks.com/fertreport/pdf/2008/TheMarket-042408.pdf

for the week beginning thursday 24/04/2008

DAP fob Tampa (metric tonne) $1,216.25
DAP fob Central Florida (short ton) $1,011.25
DAP fob NOLA (short ton) $996.25

Urea (Prill) fob Yuzhnyy (metric tonne) $545.00
Urea (Prill) fob Baltic (metric tonne) $521.75
Urea (prill) fob China bulk/bagged (metric tonne) $606.25
Urea (gran) fob barge NOLA (short ton) $496.25
Urea (gran) fob Middle East (metric tonne) $506.25

Ammonia fob Yuzhnyy (metric tonne) $480.00
Ammonia cfr Tampa (metric tonne) $550.00

Ammonium nitrate fob NOLA (short ton) $360.00

UAN (32% N) fob NOLA (short ton) $343.75

molten sulphur cfr Tampa/delivered C.Florida ($/long ton) $451.25
solid sulphur - Adnoc monthly lifting price at Ruwais ($/tonne) $670.00

As well i gleaned this brilliant Fertiliser Map from another forum.
Not only the mention of Imports/Exports, it also shows the livestocks of each country.

From the Potash Website.

http://www.potashcorp.com/media/flash/world_map/

Will also put it up in the Reward forum as it is very relevant.

Cheers markcoinoz

YOUNG_TRADER · 29 April 2008

Re: MAK - Minemakers

I still think back to when MAK was 16c and shae my head in disbelief, the stock has almost put on 20x or 2000% and still sort seems fairly vauled given the size of their Phosphate deposit

This Agri boom as created a new breed of PDN's and FMG's

Watching

AEV - Avenira Limited

grace

Adam A

grace

champ2003

champ2003

Markcoinoz

champ2003

grace

JTLP

grace

Evangeline

Adam A

adamim1

Sean K

Moderator

Attachments

champ2003

champ2003

Sean K

Moderator

champ2003

Markcoinoz

YOUNG_TRADER

Similar threads

AEV - Avenira Limited

Moderator

Attachments

Moderator

Similar threads

Privacy & Transparency

Privacy & Transparency