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AAU - Antilles Gold

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I chose PGI for the May tipping contest. Pretty basic reasons; unpredictable gold co and a freaky situation which may spike interest in gold. Long shot and I have no money in it, but we'll see what happens.
 
Not much discussion here on the PGI thread! I've chosen PGI again for similar reasons to two months ago. PGI did have a big spike in late May and could well do so again if the starts align with high gold prices and PGI having any sort of good news.
 
On November 10th, 2020, PanTerra Gold Limited (PGI) changed its name and ASX code to Antilles Gold Limited (AAU).
 
Is there really a lot of money in this AAU (I think so) have an interesting concept to mining. https://antillesgold.net/
World reserves of refractory ore containing precious metals are increasing but are often overlooked by the mining industry as the ore requires oxidation prior to extraction of gold and silver utilising standard carbon-in-leach (“CIL”) technology.


 
Antilles Gold (AAU) is really starting to pick up now as the path towards mine decision and construction has been laid out, volumes traded, trends on the weekly chart and Executive Chairman - Brian Johnson continually buying on-market and via SPP

positive newsflow coming in the next few weeks:
- Financial Scoping Study (Feb)
- 2021 Annual Accounts (March)
- Final Drilling campaign (March)

It is my feel that Finance Partners are already all but arranged, offtake agreement discussions already commenced (especially in recent gold price trends) and Mine Design options being overseen by Technincal Director - Dr Jinxing Ji using Chinese partners.

latest artcile, singalling quite susbtantial cash flows (but also check out the company announcement about Planned Production Targets)

https://www.theassay.com/news/antil...th-release-of-la-demajagua-production-target/

on the Weekly chart, breaking through 10 cents will free the stock of the last 12 months sideways / holding pattern, and in recent weeks is up nearly 20%, seem sto be setting up for that 10 cents breakout, maybe on the back of those above newsflows




sustained period of Insider Buying

 
and here today is the Financial Scoping Study, and IMO the end of Market Cap less than $30m (currently $26m) especially with a share of Cash Profits being above current marketcap each year !!

pretty easy to see why this mine and Joint Venture partnership is being fast tracked.

 

Finance planned and pretty much implies being progressed towards Finance Approval too

 
so just some back of the envelope estimates using the Scoping Study NPV8 value of USD $218.1m / AUD ~$300.1m @ 72.5c AUDUSD
  • option exercise price is 13c expiring end of April 2023
Seems like this has not yet filtered through, as typically on a Scoping Study it'd be 20% at least of Fully Valued (FV), also it is expected that the DFS will be sufficient to take things to the Funding decisions

 
another positive announcement from Antilles this morning, an exclusivity agreement to pre-review all possible Gold mining projects in Cuba on behalf for and to recommend that they be pursued under the Joint Venture arrangement

also,here's a brief 7 minute update from the Executive Chairman - Brian Johnson

 
Antilles Gold already bringing to the table some of the benefits of the recently signed exclusivity agreement under their Joint Venture

 
so the International Court of Arbitration just cleared the way for a claim up to $40m againstthe Dominican Republic for prior contract breaches, to be heard by June 2023.

 
another announcement today the Company Presentation that I understand that they intend to take around to multiple Investor familiarisation sessions in a PR context to increase the company profile.


Also today, I found out that a fairly decent sized subscriber based Investment Newsletter initiated a 4 star coverage report on Antilles just last week the 17th of March
 
just revisiting the recent Company Presentation alongside this weeks small cap raise calculations, that cap raise to pretty much (my opinion) see things through until the DFS / mine decision of the first Project shown below

cap raise announced $3.25m 50 million shares @ 6.5c with 1 for 2 options @ 13 cents, plus and additiona 1 million options for the lead financier, so 26 million options all up.

see bottom below how this recent raise and the potential of options being executed which is about $11m cash raise in itself, all stacks up against only the first / base case project of the 6 year Open Pit mine life.




base dupon my calcs, this is how I see the potentialof dilution in those o/s Options plays through into best case / worse case share price on ONLY the Open pit (stage A) of the three listed projects above, meaning the other two projects are cream given the cash flow of the first stage is seeking to self fund the other two projects

Financial Scoping Study (Feb 2022) -projected $35m profit per year dividend from JV sahre @ $1650 price of gold / oz (not a typo - $1650 !!)


  • so nearly 5x share price upside , potentially 6x depdning on options being executed
  • high level $35m Antilles project dividend (Revenue), with Market Cap currently less than $25m
  • circa $35m (Revenue) at lets say a rounded up 500m Shares on Issue would equate to 7 cents EPS against current share price of 7.1 cents !
  • NPV expected to increase if price of gold stabilised to an accepted norm above $1900, as $1650 POG is a 14% discount on $1900
  • NPV expected to increase as remaining Drilling assays are brought into the maiden JORC results and reclassified from "inferred"
Just on the Base Case (stage A) project, with the potential "Company Maker" project to come after that.

"Compelling" comes to mind.
 
happy to be sharing this quality piece of Antilles Gold detailed analysis and timeline of key events across the multiple projects in the pipeline. can't take any credit for it, but this certainly helps one see the huge potential in the multiple projects and the self funding capacity that the company has after the intital open pit mine starts generatingits cashflows. all of which for $13m USD ($18m AUD) initial investment

recently updated revision incorporating the Annual Report 2021 updates

DYOR - this has checked out on all the things I alreadyknew and had dervied from prior company announcements myself

 
Just a recap on the 2021 Annual Report re Director's holdings, the 4 directors holdingjust under 23% of Shares on Issue (the denominator accounts for the recent cap raise in March 2022 50m shares / 26m options)

There's certainly skin in the game being demonstrated here, and we also don't know to what extent Directors may have participated in the March 2022 cap raise,is at all, as those shares aren't due to be issued until the next week

my summary:

(including Director Transactions after 31st Dec 2021 balance date of the Annual Report)



Annual Report extract:

 
Low volume but AAU is down almost 6% today? Market depth looking a bit weak with not a lot of buyers lining up.
 
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