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10 year - 3 month bond spread is now inverted at -0.21.The last 2 times this happened was in 2000 and 2007 and there was a recession the next year.
Everytime in the past 50 years when the 10 year - 3 month has inverted there's been a recession within 18 months.7 out of 7 times.
So markets have recovered the majority of the bear market in absence of follow through on a 2019 recession. Forecasts are still for 5% ish EPS...
5400 - High Early Low Late
Just 18 basis point spread between the 10 year and 3 month bond.So all it would take is one Fed hike for curve inversion.In the majority of...
Longest periods for the All Ordinaries Index to go nowhere:1890 to 1907 - 17 years
1930 to 1944 - 14 years
1962 to 1975 - 13 years
2007 to 2019...
I think we'll get back to 6400 by mid year.While I anticipate that to be the peak for a while I don't think the major capitulation happens in...
Longest periods it took for the ASX Total Returns to beat inflation:1936 18 years
1960 17 years
1964 19 years
1968 17 years
1969 16 years
Title seems pretty good in comparison to:S&P500 -80% in 13 years (1929-1942)
Nikkei -50% in 29 years (1990-2019)
Hang Seng -50% in 12 years...
XAO down -11% from the August peak.
The ones like ARG, MLT, AFI have traded at a premium for most of this bull market.
Asset Allocation based on risk profile and time frame is a good place to start.I am aggressive with funds I don't need or look at for 15+ years...
Out of the 9 bear markets since WW2 that failed to reach -30%, the bottom to top recovery time was within the next calendar year 8 out of 9 times.
Respect your opinion welcome to the site.
GFC High 6843 with PE 14
Current 5650 with PE 15Doesn't seem much difference for the rigging of the century.