Recent content by howardbandy

I give up.

We are all trading in the same arena. James Simons and Goldman Sachs take their side of the trade without asking whether we are experts or novices. It is hard to compare directly, but subjectively, if a machine learning trading system scores 100 arbitrary points, traditional platform decision...

These are some of the points Kahneman makes as well. We look for confirmation of what we already believe. When faced with a difficult question we substitute an easier question. Best, Howard

Greetings -- It is difficult to make a direct comparison between a system using a decision tree model developed using a traditional platform such as TradeStation or AmiBroker and a system using machine learning even if that model is decision tree. Difficult because of the focus on indicator...

Greetings -- I have not gone away. But I am discouraged. When someone -- anyone -- asks how to learn trading system development, and specifically what books to read or courses to take, my first recommendation is to read Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking, Fast and Slow." I have previously...

I do.

Hi Calen -- There is no trial and error. Beginning with the personal risk tolerance of the trader and the set of trades that are the best estimate of future performance, there is a unique value for safe-f and CAR25. There is a "root finding" operation involving in determining the value of...

IMO these thoughts would be better addressed in a philosophical / theological thread. Whatever reality actually is, I have no option other than treating what I experience as "the" reality. Best, Howard

Not really. Wikipedia states it well: "Under modern interpretations, a scientific hypothesis must be falsifiable, implying that it is possible to identify a possible outcome of an experiment that conflicts with predictions deduced from the hypothesis; otherwise, the hypothesis cannot be...

In which case there is nothing but illusion -- we are imaginary creatures who live in a pseudo-reality created by the dream of some other entity. So much for free will. How could we tell? What experiment could distinguish between being real and being imaginary? How should we plan and live...

Are we discussing the same thing? The scientific method I am referring to is the technique of postulating models, followed by out-of-sample validation. This one: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_method Best, Howard

Hi GB -- Can you point me to discussion of the weaknesses of the scientific method? Best, Howard

I have a solid belief in the scientific method. I hope that counts. Best, Howard

Has done well in the past. Estimating risk and profit potential in the future requires a testable system and returns metrics that can be used for management. As an alternative, consider James Simons' hedge fund: http://fortune.com/2017/05/16/hedge-fund-james-simons-renaissance-technologies/...

Taxes to pay for health care are assessed on income. No income, no taxes, but health care still provided through public funding of social services. Buying insurance requires income. No income, no health care. Health care in the US became attached to employment following WWII in joint efforts...