Trading the Aussie200

[DialecticBlue]

I have been trading the XJO200 with CFD's for over a year now and I am getting quite good with it, so I thought I would let you know what I am doing each time I make a trade. This will either continue or I will make a complete fool of myself. Here's to putting them on the chopping block.

After sitting on the sidelines and wishing I had ridden the last wave down from 5600, where I had exited at around 5580 because I thought a significant resistance had been reached at around 5754 and there had been 4 days of rises which are inevitably followed by a pause or a drop, I put my toe in for a long position at 5158 [no kidding] and rode that 400 price rise up.

Then I looked on in diss-belief at most of it fritter away yesterday. Then this morning I got up early to see with the US was doing and it had done the same bloody thing - so time to bail out with around 20% of the intial profit intact and see what today held on the XJO. So far down, good decision.

Note that the last three significant pushes up in both the DOW and the ASX have been clobberd. Note also, that a lot of the 400 increase was probably short selling. Note also price of petrol which will impact on consumer confidence which will impact on company profits.

Gotta figure that the chances of one more Elliot wave leg down is on the cards. Gotta remember not to fight the trend. Which I have done the last couple of times. BUT, the US did hold most of its gains last night, and it may just get on with it for what will probably be another sucker bounce.

The trouble with short positions at the moment is they we have implused so far down.

So, I'm gonna see what today holds on the ASX and maybe dip my toe into the US tonight for what is possibley and even money gamble for another rise.

My general trading demeanour

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

All prices are from the CMC Trading Platfrorm

2:30pm 5160 Let's see what happens this afternoon

Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

3:22 XJO 5144, just popping above a flag on the 5 minute after a less than impressive day. It looks restless and could be setting up for a small rally by those who want to take a bet on the DOW tonight.

Dow 30 at 12,010 a slide of around 100 since close of trade, but still keeping more than 50% of the 400 gain.

If the XJO pops above 5144 I will take a small trade and gamble on the DOW overnight.




Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

3:40 XJO 5124 took a single long gamble [uh, trade] on the basis that the big guys like to beat you up before allowing a sustained rise. Almost all the gains have been from the DOW surge have been wiped out, so the SL area is easy to work out and offer a good risk/reward gamble [sorry, trade].

The Dow has kept around 50% of its gains and the FED desparately want it all to get better.

I will now set my stop loss and not look at it until tomorrow morning before 7am EST before the DOW closes.

good night

probably do my money



Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Correction

My first exit was at 5656 not 5600. And I took 2 small long trades early and took a small trading loss before cracking the big on. Bugger that it didn't get on with the job. Then again, that would have been too easy.

XJO 5140, probably stalled at the top of the flag.... it's so tempting just to take the lucky few dollars and run.

good night

 

[jersey10]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

3:40 XJO 5124 took a single long gamble [uh, trade] on the basis that the big guys like to beat you up before allowing a sustained rise. Almost all the gains have been from the DOW surge have been wiped out, so the SL area is easy to work out and offer a good risk/reward gamble [sorry, trade].

The Dow has kept around 50% of its gains and the FED desparately want it all to get better.

I will now set my stop loss and not look at it until tomorrow morning before 7am EST before the DOW closes.

good night

probably do my money



Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.

Which stock did u gamble on, I mean trade?

 

[Aviator33]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Thanks for sharing your live trades DialecticBlue - keep 'em coming!

Cheers
AV

 

[happyjack]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Hi Dialectic B

I was just wondering if it would be possible for you to put in just bit more detail in your thread? Why did you make a trade, it is great to know that you have made a winning trade but Why did you go long or short? do you use Moving Averages or any Indicators? do you use Candles or OHLC bars? what type of charts do you use Time or Periods, ( 1 day to 39 years or 25 units to 100 units) which tick do you use 2min 5 min 15 min ----, which data do you use the bid or the offer?

Of course I do not expect (or want) you to write a 5 page answer to this but if in your post you were to say "I went short because ....." or "I use the 10 unit charts rather than two weeks because it cuts out the confusions of public holidays and weekends" or I use the 7 - 21 period Moving average with a 15 minute chart for all day trades. This would be a great help to those of us who are trying to get it together on this sector. Or if that is asking too much what about cutting and pasting the odd chart so that we can see the moving averages etc

I trade the "Aussie 200" (I won't call it the XJO because it close but not identical) with CMC and their ftse 100 but usually with only 4 or 5 CFD's I am just trying to get the feel for it. without loosing all my money.

happyjack

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

I trade the "Aussie 200" (I won't call it the XJO because it close but not identical) with CMC and their ftse 100 but usually with only 4 or 5 CFD's I am just trying to get the feel for it. without loosing all my money.

Guys what you are trading is a CFD on the SPI. Not the XJO.

 

[tech/a]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Thanks for sharing your live trades DialecticBlue - keep 'em coming!

Cheers
AV

Cant see any trading here.

Lots of guessing,so pretty much gambling.

I would say that when the Dow tanks tonight DB will say he took the temptation of the"Few Lucky (whatever that is)$s"
If the Dow climbs then he will have held.

Oh one of the major Hedge funds went into liquidation in the US (Carlyle) according to Radge so the US markets wont like the 21Billion loss sustained by lenders.http://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...nds-shiver-through-credit-markets-792825.html

 

[IFocus]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

DialecticBlue you are likely to / have coped a few cynical comments on your posts about how you are going about your trades.

Don't take it personally (the market doesn't care about how you feel) but think about the message, your posting will hopefully bring some learning that will benefit you in the long run.

One point I will make is that if you are talking about gambling then you are likely to be gambling.

Good Luck

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Interesting ride last night.

I agree with all the comments. 1. As I noted, I have been doing OK for about a year now on the XJO [yes, I know CFD's are not the XJO, once again, also acknowledged in my thread, and I am about to change to a market taker not a market maker -- it is hard enough trading against the other traders, let alone them and CMC, but my trading risk management and SL placement have allowed me to be lazy and stay with them] 2. All Trading is gambling, if the definition of gambling is taking a calcualed risk. I rely heavily on risk/reward and very conservative use of trading capital/capital. ie: this makes me a few quid at long last, satisfies my trading instincts and I can't ever go broke. 3. I am not a financial advisor and as such I am wary of offering any sort of advice. You do not know me from a bar of soap, so I would suggest that if I can steadily build up over time then maybe I am worth watching as a way of either confirming your own decisions or challenging them, and, I may be making all this up

Last night at 11:36 I had a look at the Marketwatch news site, the XJO [bear with me calling it that, it's easier], the DOW30, Oil, Gold, US$ and London. The news was dismal, oil and gold were merrily beating the new bench marks and another financial institution was in trouble. So, I bailed out at 5190 for a loss of 34. 1. the indicies had not got on with it & 2. all the news was bad, so, the risk had shifted.

Interestingly, after a rough ride, the news is quite positive this morning, so as I consider the reasons for the trade to be still valid, I will crawl back in at the opening. Oh, and I do not trade the news, but neither do I ignore it.

Reasons, the % chance of a change of direction, and all the indicators I use [ which are very few actually ] put the risk/reward in favour of a long trade. Yes, there is an element of bottom/top picking in my approach, but if you wait for full confirmation, then mostly the best of a short term trade has gone, and the risk/reward shifts.

This is trading, after all, not investing.



Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

9:57am took long position at 5,207

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Can we assume that your stop is @ 5173 like your last 34 point loss??

And if so what would be your target? 5275?? to give a 2 to 1 R:R?

Which would require the SPI to go up another 1.3 % from the already 1.3%rise

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

All very techincal. We are either coming off a pivot point, or we are not. On the hourly - Aussie 200 - we seem to have triple bottom at 5090 and it has travelled through at 5147 trend line and is now forming a flag. The US is trying to get out of bed, the candle sticks indicate a chance of getting on with the Fed's wishes.

It's Friday and everyone is nervous.

But, you either stand back and wish you had traded or you hop in and manage the trade.

My exits are managed by SL as I have no idea about the future ..... do you?



Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

we seem to have triple bottom at 5090 and it has travelled through at 5147 trend line and is now forming a flag.

your flag has broken to the down side so is that a failed setup?

It's Friday and everyone is nervous.

Who's nervous??

But, you either stand back and wish you had traded or you hop in and manage the trade.

That's my point. Where is the trade management.

My exits are managed by SL as I have no idea about the future ..... do you?

It is no value to anyone reading this stuff if at least there is not a stated R:R in your trade setups. The first thing that should be considered is the point at which you accept that this trade has gone bad and how much that will cost you in relationship to the possible reward.

This trade has been about 12 ticks up and 37 down. What do you possible hope to be giving the punters here with this stuff?

 

[DialecticBlue]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

Trembling Hand ---- so, don't read it

I have just been out and I realised that my explanation of SL was contradictory. My trading has evolved over quite some time and have internalised most of it, I suppose.

I use Daily to get the over-all feel and try to get some sense of an Elliot Wave Pattern. I use one hour to set trend lines and stop loss pionts for when I am away from the screen. I use 5 minute for managing trading when I am at the screen.

I use the 5 minute to enter a trade and then see if it gets on with it or not and hopefully starts to follow a trend line on the hourly.

My initial SL is to prevent a meltdown loss, rather than micro-mangage. Hence, last night my SL was down around the 5040 which I would have left for the night. If a trade starts to work I increase my SL to breakeven and pyramid to make up for the small loss trades getting in. I then increase the stop losses when the market stops trending and has a pause. SL just below the pause. After 2/3 days of rises I increase the SL to 50% of the impulse. Last night I was curious and did not like what I saw so I exited. I thought there was more risk on the downside than potential on up-side and a high chance it would meander if my assessment of the markets wanting to have a rise was right.

This morning I decided that there was better than even chance the markets would rise so I simply entered. My SL is below the hourly triple bottom. I find that SL's that are too close to the action tend to be hit, particularly with CMC Market Makers [hence, my interest in changing over to a market-taker].
I am either right or I am wrong. I will look at the market again at 2:30, then 3:30 - 4. Then glance at the DOW30 until I go to bed. Not that that helps at all really. Exiting last night borderd on poor discipline. But, trading is about instinct mostly, I think


Oh, and my disclaimer, I am not a registered financial adviser and I am not offering any financial or trading advice. I am simply telling you what I am doing and if I were you, I would not be following it.

 

[treefrog]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

hi blue - appreciate your input and concur with the advice not to take critics to heart - there is more than one way to skin a cat and i trade (short term) mostly without stops
here are the signals my system on the 2min charts have given this morning - seems to be a pump and dump day (again!)

 

[Trembling Hand]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

- there is more than one way to skin a cat and i trade (short term) mostly without stops
here are the signals my system on the 2min charts have given this morning -

But your system does have exits signals that may not be set price stops but they are nevertheless exit signals. Is that correct?

 

[treefrog]

Re: Trading the XJO 200

But your system does have exits signals that may not be set price stops but they are nevertheless exit signals. Is that correct?

that is correct TH - but manual (interpreted) exits and entries. I am sure everyone trading would say they at least had this - even the trend followers - the more casual (ie most actually, and why they keep feeding money to the market) say I will get out when it turns but fail to do so.

These days I (and suspect most) understand stops to be preset auto activated

A point I have learnt and one that makes me far more than a stop saves is having a auto limit - particularly on ST trading