AUT - Aurora Oil and Gas

VWAP came in at 82.18 on meagre volumes.

I think the closing price is a bit flattering.

Bit of a dull retail shoppers day.

J&M said:

So what you mean is the stock can trade all day at say 98c or a $1
Then someone buys at $1.30 to set the stock at false higher rate
The punter sees he stock going up so more jump in a buy the stock
when the stock is higher the punter who placed the higher bid then sells for a profit
am i reading this correct ???

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Dependant on the supply volume in the sell depths.

Often a stock will be "propped" up using fake bids to attract buyers to the listed depth.... off screen sellers will sell into these punters and the dummy bids will be removed if other sellers start getting nr them.They will continue to do this at various levels and it is a daily occurence to create a buyer stack to sell into.

Dependant on the stock re pushing for a higher close it all depends on the screen sell side depth .if theres bugger all there its easy to push it up a few notches on a small% of the volume traded for that day.

may not make sense but there is a method in my madness im trying to explain

Slipperz said:

VWAP came in at 82.18 on meagre volumes.

I think the closing price is a bit flattering.

: :

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Ahha

cheers slipperz, may pay you to check over the last week or so also dude.. thanks for taking the time to looki at the other side also

nunthewiser said:

I have not addressed you and have been told not to bother replying to you but i do not appreciate yet another personal attack . why do you persist ?when its obvious i have nothing to share with YOU and merely posting my comments/thoughts to others here .

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nice post nun

been following your thoughts closely.. and hats off to your correct perceptions

for me its been enlightening

anyone watching bph?

Slipperz said:

VWAP came in at 82.18 on meagre volumes.

I think the closing price is a bit flattering.

Bit of a dull retail shoppers day.

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Normally a VWAP so far below the close might ring alarm bells but if you look at the trades they ticked up nicley over a few hours to the close, so certainly today nothing dodgey appears to have happened.

nunthewiser said:

Ahha

cheers slipperz, may pay you to check over the last week or so also dude.. thanks for taking the time to looki at the other side also

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nunthewiser I track AUT like a hawk.

I thought it was off and gone to the dollar and beyond a ways back but it hit resistance and has retraced and seems a bit lacking in momentum of recent.

For now I'm tracking AUT while the wheeling and dealing at SSN and LNC is being done.

Oh and as an aside tonight on ABC news Alan Kohler reported that for the first time in history China has replaced the USA as the worlds largest consumer of oil.

By volume not per capita of course. If it were per capita we'd all be riding bikes!

Originally Posted by nunthewiser
I have not addressed you and have been told not to bother replying to you but i do not appreciate yet another personal attack . why do you persist ?when its obvious i have nothing to share with YOU and merely posting my comments/thoughts to others here .

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Nun you dont hold this stock but persist to come and make wild accusations. I simply provided todays trades and asked you politely to justify those accusations by showing us what you meant.

You did actually relply to me.

condog said:

Nun you dont hold this stock but persist to come and make wild accusations. I simply provided todays trades and asked you politely to justify those accusations by showing us what you meant.

You did actually relply to me.

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I thought that Nun was looking to buy at a certain price
I think his comments are very informative ( as are condogs)
but hey what would I know you are all way smarter the me in the share market

condog said:

Nun you dont hold this stock but persist to come and make wild accusations. .

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Mmmmm yet another personal attack..... i have provided nothing but analysis all evening tonight and resent my posts being misrepresented as " wild acusations" when they are unbiased knowledgeable volume analysis.

why do you persist in these personal attacks?

J&M said:

I thought that Nun was looking to buy at a certain price
I think his comments are very informative ( as are condogs)
but hey what would I know you are all way smarter the me in the share market

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im looking at various pivot points .....im happy to enter at any moment my signals tell me too , be it 93 cents or 66 cents all depends on the action at time and my interpretation of the action at time ....

I couldnt care less if this goes up, down , sideways, my entry criterias are based on various chart and volume signals.

just been posting targets i think it will hit first

could be wrong

I dont think im any smarter than anyone here .... i trade my own way .its my cash so why would i let anyone else influence me on how to spend it....nothing to do with anyone being smarter than anyone .its all personal choice on how you spend ya cash ... i just voicing mine

Fortunately Bias once recognised is a bias eliminated. Surely our readers can dig deep enough and establish whos credible and whos bias for themselves.

A wise man once said - bias investors tend to develop a bias for a preferred quality. Given my track record i am biased towards quality stocks and high returns.

Funnily enough today Macquarie issued a BUY consensus on AUT.

Euroz and Hartleys have valued it at $1.23 and $1.32 which also indicates a strong buy.

The blatant bias in this thread, and enthusiasm with which it is being dished out, is amazing. The misrepresentation of events from people who are obviously smart and experienced enough to that what is going on is not what they are claiming (and who should know how obvious that is) is remarkable!

Some funky chart interpretation! I think I'll draw my own conclusions at the moment!

Good luck to all holders/sellers/buyers

Found by Esteon ta.

This is Bloomberg comment today....

"Crude oil rose the most in almost two months as equities rallied after EBay Inc. and Caterpillar Inc. earnings beat estimates and growth accelerated in European manufacturing and services.

Oil climbed as much as 3.7 percent, the most since May 27, after the European industries unexpectedly grew at a greater rate last month, signaling fuel demand in the region will increase. Prices also gained as the dollar dropped against the euro, bolstering the appeal of commodities.

Everyone is focused on the same things, and that is changes in the economic growth outlook, said David Greely, head of energy research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York.

Crude oil for September delivery rose $2.73, or 3.6 percent, to $79.29 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The price reached a 30-day high of $79.42 and is up 21 percent from a year ago....

We expect to see a breakout above $80 in the next couple of months, Greely said. Oil will probably trade in the $85- to-$95 range during the second half of the year. "



and from
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i5TtajgUpSm7KY5jf-lCJGHBB-tAD9H49OP00

Oil prices rise on stormy forecast for Gulf
By SANDY SHORE (AP) – 1 hour ago

Oil prices advanced Thursday as energy producers kept an eye on a developing tropical storm that could move into the Gulf of Mexico by the weekend.

At the gas pump, prices were unchanged at a national average of $2.718 for a gallon of unleaded regular gasoline, according to AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. The price is nearly 2 cents less than it was a month ago and about 25 cents higher than a year ago.

Benchmark crude surged $2.74, or 3.6 percent, to settle at $79.30 a gallon on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

and

US crude oil jumps more than $1 on data, weather
Reuters Africa - Robert Gibbons - ‎7 hours ago‎NEW YORK July 22 (Reuters) - US crude oil futures rose more than $1 on Thursday as positive euro zone economic data and increased possibility of a tropical ...

A few days ago apparently there is no evidence to support my suggestion Hurricane season generally help the oil price rise. hmmm hmmm looky hear whats happened, as predicted, and as it does almost every year.

On the flip side i think global concerns wont hold it here for two long, but its very nice that AUT is repaying thise early wells, and going through the early cash starved growth phases with oil prices at these levels. Certainly will accellerate break even points and temporary NPV somewhat.

The situation in Korea may also help tick energy prices a little higher for a few weeks. With Sth Korea and the USA playing war games near the border after Ntrh executed officials and sank a South Korean warship.

Originally Posted by condog
Dont forget hurricanne season traditionally corresponds with higher oil and energy prices, which is a positive (note concern for victims).

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Agentm said:

i have no idea what you talking about here condog? can you present some facts on this that back up what you saying
....
so i had to research it and make sure it was correct.. i cant confirm most of the things your saying when i check it and examine it, can you confirm that what your stating is accurate for me please?

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Gulf of Mexico storm threat stokes oil price
By Javier Blas in London

Published: July 22 2010 18:50 | Last updated: July 22 2010 22:20

Commodities prices recovered on Thursday to their highest level in one month, up 7.5 per cent from the low hit last month, as oil prices rallied on the back of fears about a tropical storm forming in the US Gulf of Mexico, a key oil and natural gas production area.
......
Hurricanes can have a big impact on commodities. Katrina and Rita in 2005 forced widespread shutdowns of natural gas, oil production and refinery activity along the US Gulf of Mexico coast, pushing prices sharply higher.


Also as was highly predictable

Costs will rise due to new legislative requirements.

4 Oil Firms Commit $1 Billion for Gulf Rapid-Response Plan
New York Times - Derick E. Hingle - ‎17 hours ago‎The emergency response plan is part of the oil industry's effort to show it can improve its safety procedures and shape the inevitable rules of conduct that ...
Video: Storm Nears, Ships May Evacuate Gulf Cleanup The Associated Press
Oil giants commit $1 billion to spill response system Houston Chronicle
Gulf oil spill: Oil companies to form emergency response system for future ... Los Angeles Times (blog)
TopNews Singapore (press release) - Scripps News
all 3,962 news articles »Email this story

Nulla

are we seeing another bull flag . Its not a perfect flac pole, but then they dont have to be either. But the flag formation is showing a lot of resistance to falling. In a justified over supply position.

Today oil up sharply, DJIA up 202

Could be a break out day ???

Goldman: Oil Over $100 in 2011; Gold to $1,335
56 comments | by: The Pragmatic Capitalist July 21, 2010

I dont buy it, but given my neutral position i feel i should report it.


From:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/215...-2011-gold-to-1-335?source=article_sb_popular

I think the money supply could make it possible, but the second round of possible US mortgage defaults , and global growth concerns imo wont allow this.

But hey Goldman are smarter then I, and as Agent said recently the funds control the oil prices. So your guess is as good as mine.

From the same site

Is Crude Oil Headed Back to $57?
by: Wayne A. Corbitt July 22, 2010

With all of the hoopla surrounding the recent rally in crude oil prices, such as the excitement and bullish implications of spot crude hitting its highest price in three weeks, it is time for a bit of a reality check. With the US economy in continuing decline as evidenced by moribund housing and employment numbers, there is little reason to be a perma bull based on US demand. Those that insist on taking the bullish slant look to China as the godfather of consumption, but cracks are beginning to show in China's economic situation. Besides - does the Shanghai Composite (down 22% for the year) have the look of a world economic leader? Weakness in the Shanghai Composite has been evident since its August 2009 top:


As i said your guess is as good as mine, but for now $70+ looks fine for the short term, which is crucial for us at AUT repaying hilcorp and trying to get established with high NVP early wells.

Its certainly well below its long term average and looks more inclined to go up then down

Condog.
I paid by bpay for the max amount of AUT shares offered.
As it's being over subscribed. One third of the amount is to be given at the discretion of the directors?
What is that supposed to mean.
Do we still recieve the third and how long does it take before you get back the balance so it can at least earn interest?
I thought today i'd see some extra AUT shares in my account this morning but zilch.

jancha said:

Condog.
I paid by bpay for the max amount of AUT shares offered.
As it's being over subscribed. One third of the amount is to be given at the discretion of the directors?
What is that supposed to mean.
Do we still recieve the third and how long does it take before you get back the balance so it can at least earn interest?
I thought today i'd see some extra AUT shares in my account this morning but zilch.

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I didnt apply, but i think they said

Aurora envisages that the allotment of shares under the SPP will now occur on or around Tuesday 27 July 2010.

Id expect refund cheques being posted around the same date. So expect the money cleared in your account a week later from the 27th i my guess. They tend not to drag heels on this , as its bad PR if they hold your money longer then required.

condog said:

I didnt apply, but i think they said

Aurora envisages that the allotment of shares under the SPP will now occur on or around Tuesday 27 July 2010.

Id expect refund cheques being posted around the same date. So expect the money cleared in your account a week later from the 27th i my guess. They tend not to drag heels on this , as its bad PR if they hold your money longer then required.

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Cheers Condog
Be interesting to see how many i recieve & if there's any sell down on the 27th with profit takers.
I was half expecting that today.