Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

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I had a bloody week so far, yesterday portfolio of systems shares down 2.5% on a supposedly flat day. WTF?
Then looked at small caps index...
Screenshot_20220504_212757_com.android.chrome_edit_22412312280954.jpg
Well that explains...
If you want crazy stuff look at AUD vs USD following US jumping rate by twice the Aussie version...
I give up trying to find any sense...
 
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I had a bloody week so far, yesterday portfolio of systems shares down 2.5% on a supposedly flat day. WTF?
Then looked at small caps index...
View attachment 141258
Well that explains...
If you want crazy stuff look at AUD vs USD following US jumping rate by twice the Aussie version...
I give up trying to find any sense...
The small ords recovered most of the lost ground yesterday (Edit: against XAO), hope you faired well.
Looks like today might be a blood bath though.
 

over9k

So I didn't tell my wife, but I...
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XEJ is my play in aus. I'd like a leveraged etf for it like GEAR but I don't think one exists. Unless someone else knows of one?
 
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The small ords recovered most of the lost ground yesterday (Edit: against XAO), hope you faired well.
Looks like today might be a blood bath though.
Yes did very well yesterday but will be snashed again ...and more today......
 
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XAO +300 points of low. I'm not a believer that we've seen the bottom. This bounce is more impulsive in the US while the XAO seems to be going higher reluctantly. I'm thinking bear market rally, beware. I'm taking short term profits in the US. It's welcome seeing the open trades in the ASX sneaking higher but I don't want to lose very much if/when the market falls again. Keeping exits tight but not too tight.
 
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US not trading tonight because of Memorial Day. No direction is perhaps a good thing for us? Hard to know, lots of people are wondering if this is a bounce or a turn around........
 
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Now I know what the boards of AGL and ORG are feeling.
I don't know what's going to happen next and I'm unable to provide any guidance. Today's lithium selloff, ouch.
 
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Now I know what the boards of AGL and ORG are feeling.
I don't know what's going to happen next and I'm unable to provide any guidance. Today's lithium selloff, ouch.
portfolio falling by 2% today, yet ASS flat..and talk about manipulation of index closing price:
look at this:
1654069798549.png
+17 points in a few minutes after close
or +0.4%..wonder if there are bonuses or similar requiring a positive index today
 

Garpal Gumnut

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Well, my SMSF is winning back some of its losses coming up to the last 40 minutes of the XAO today.

I'll be happy if it ends even Steven.

gg
 
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Observation:

Some of you may know I dumped all my VAS holdings into AUI due to annoyance at junk bull**** like SQ2 and BRN being included in the index.

During the course of market trading over 24 hours, I keep tabs on the volume adjusted bid price for all my holdings to track where my entire portfolio could be liquidated into the market.

One thing I've noticed since becoming an AUI holder is that the strength of bids in the order book seems to be a very interesting leading indicator.

AUI is not very liquid and is quite thinly traded.

I first noticed this with some frustation as my beta to the XJO was going down (where I generally want beta of 1). But it turned out to only matter to the downside/to my benefit. i.e. when the XJO is rallying, the willingness (or lack of) of market participants to enter bids for AUI seems to have some information value.

Anyway, the XJO rally since late Jun was largely confirmed by participants willingly upping their AUI bids in the order book, but I can see today that it's died off, similar to the behavior between mid May and early June when XJO attempted a rally and AUI bids were not lifted in the book.

I am probably jinxing this by noting it publicly, but thought it would be interesting for others.
 
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Worth noting both @InsvestoBoy's observation and my observation that today's price action seemed like the early signs of exhaustion in the market. Of course I hope the market rally continues unabated next week.

Right now I'm feeling good, really g-o-o-d. There are three reasons for that. Firstly I'm in good physical condition. I pulled up a bit sore this morning after nine sets of tennis yesterday. After an afternoon walk all the soreness is gone and I'm in good shape.

Secondly I just finished a very satisfying meal. It started with a good garlic bread, a great red wine that went down smoothly. Then to top it off I got a perfect pizza. It's not often this happens, but tonight the toppings were plentiful and tasty. What made this pizza perfect was the base, not crispy not doughy but just right. A tasty gelato at the end had me in raptures.

Thirdly, aren't we enjoying this market rally. I'm having my best start of any FY. I know it's not me. I haven't turned into a trading god yet. The market rally started at the same time as the new FY. Serendipity. I'm remember something that @frugal.rock mentioned. Whenever we hit a new equity high we should liquidate. Me and the market aren't at a new high yet but the idea to be careful when things seem to be going perfectly well is valid.

What is happening and what's the likely forward outcome?

We know that seven companies dominate our index. It's the banks that have underpinned this rally. BHP, RIO and TLS haven't contributed much at all. However it's the underlying bullish breadth of the market that has this rally moving smoothly. The small ords, midcaps and all battery mineral resources have contributed substantially to this rally.

Going forward, the banks will continue to do well in this rising interest rate environment. They'll be able to increase their margins. Bad debts won't be a problem until the interest rates get much higher as a significant percentage of customers are ahead in their mortgage payments. The outlook for BHP, RIO depends on the iron ore price, China must eventually restart their economy. They do have problems with their Covid policy (lockdowns) and Evergrande. Their current focus on Taiwan and Aust are distractions from their internal problems. I can't see BHP and RIO going down significantly although they may not increase for a while. I'm bullish the rest of our market. We do have a problem with the lack of skilled labour. Companies will adapt and I think the outlook is promising because the growth will be slow and steady rather than fast and frothy.

I'm bullish XAO as I see the index rising in a slow and steady manner. The only problem that would hamper our market is the US. They will get into a harder recession than Aust and currently their political system is imploding. This has the potential to fuel violent civil unrest.

Relative Strength to the XAO (21d) : Mid caps > Small caps > Large caps

xao1208.PNG
 
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Worth noting both @InsvestoBoy's observation and my observation that today's price action seemed like the early signs of exhaustion in the market. Of course I hope the market rally continues unabated next week.

Right now I'm feeling good, really g-o-o-d. There are three reasons for that. Firstly I'm in good physical condition. I pulled up a bit sore this morning after nine sets of tennis yesterday. After an afternoon walk all the soreness is gone and I'm in good shape.

Secondly I just finished a very satisfying meal. It started with a good garlic bread, a great red wine that went down smoothly. Then to top it off I got a perfect pizza. It's not often this happens, but tonight the toppings were plentiful and tasty. What made this pizza perfect was the base, not crispy not doughy but just right. A tasty gelato at the end had me in raptures.

Thirdly, aren't we enjoying this market rally. I'm having my best start of any FY. I know it's not me. I haven't turned into a trading god yet. The market rally started at the same time as the new FY. Serendipity. I'm remember something that @frugal.rock mentioned. Whenever we hit a new equity high we should liquidate. Me and the market aren't at a new high yet but the idea to be careful when things seem to be going perfectly well is valid.

What is happening and what's the likely forward outcome?

We know that seven companies dominate our index. It's the banks that have underpinned this rally. BHP, RIO and TLS haven't contributed much at all. However it's the underlying bullish breadth of the market that has this rally moving smoothly. The small ords, midcaps and all battery mineral resources have contributed substantially to this rally.

Going forward, the banks will continue to do well in this rising interest rate environment. They'll be able to increase their margins. Bad debts won't be a problem until the interest rates get much higher as a significant percentage of customers are ahead in their mortgage payments. The outlook for BHP, RIO depends on the iron ore price, China must eventually restart their economy. They do have problems with their Covid policy (lockdowns) and Evergrande. Their current focus on Taiwan and Aust are distractions from their internal problems. I can't see BHP and RIO going down significantly although they may not increase for a while. I'm bullish the rest of our market. We do have a problem with the lack of skilled labour. Companies will adapt and I think the outlook is promising because the growth will be slow and steady rather than fast and frothy.

I'm bullish XAO as I see the index rising in a slow and steady manner. The only problem that would hamper our market is the US. They will get into a harder recession than Aust and currently their political system is imploding. This has the potential to fuel violent civil unrest.

Relative Strength to the XAO (21d) : Mid caps > Small caps > Large caps

View attachment 145331
And this is what I should take as a baseline:
5 systems: since FY start:
1 roughly flat, 2 winning, 2 losing => I should really interpret that as I need to drop the 2 losers
 
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Ah yes but under different market conditions how do those two losers perform?

They might actually be profitable over the long term?
They obviously should be ?as they were developed using backtests,shaken by adding random input but conceptually, i do not understand how they should deviate from the overall market conditions.
until i do, there is an issue.
I tend to sort this dilemma by reducing exposure aka slash parcel value by 2 until i can understand how the money is lost..but that trouble shoting is a priority.
The xnt has gained back its January 22 level, and a system not matching this performance in the last 8 months has an issue IMHO.so i act.
To get back into this thread, i consider the XNT a better baseline for traders than the XAO as we need to ensure that our buy sell sagas is worth the missed dividends of the banks BHP etc etc
 

Cam019

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They obviously should be ?as they were developed using backtests,shaken by adding random input but conceptually, i do not understand how they should deviate from the overall market conditions.
until i do, there is an issue.
I tend to sort this dilemma by reducing exposure aka slash parcel value by 2 until i can understand how the money is lost..but that trouble shoting is a priority.
The xnt has gained back its January 22 level, and a system not matching this performance in the last 8 months has an issue IMHO.so i act.
To get back into this thread, i consider the XNT a better baseline for traders than the XAO as we need to ensure that our buy sell sagas is worth the missed dividends of the banks BHP etc etc
Frog, what style is the the system and what part of the ASX does it trade?
 
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Frog, what style is the the system and what part of the ASX does it trade?
The two losers are break out attempts, with purposedly quick in out play, low latency to get in out, realm from memory on the whole xao.
With lithium plays etc, plenty of good candidates conceptually in the last months so should have made a killing since july.
They did not..and yes they match BT... both real and BT showing a fall since january...
I do not want to detract from the XAO thread but these 2 are cause for concern.and i will investigate when i find time, probably reducing amount engaged on Monday .
Have all a great week end
 
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Serendipity.

Whenever we hit a new equity high we should liquidate. Me and the market aren't at a new high yet but the idea to be careful when things seem to be going perfectly well is valid.
That sounds like illogical, contrarian, irrational and chaos based reasoning.

There's no room for that with mechanical trading unless perhaps with a truly accepting dogmatic coder...
?
 
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