WPP - WPP AUNZ Limited

[yasar_sheikh]

Dear Members!
I posted yesterday about SGN of ASX as serious earning opportunity but that thread was deleted by the forum management deeming it as spam.............!

Have you seen today's movement of SGN? it has touched 3.12 and closed
at 3.08 i.e. target of 3.11 is achieved but I am not closing this
recommendation as overall upward trend may continue. However, its
better to go for some partial profit taking.

 

[TheRage]

Re: SGN - Stw Communications Group

Anyone holding?

Quite an interesting company but one exceptionally hard to value. It's an advertising/ marketing business with ownership in 50 or more firms. The % ownership in most cases seems to be exactly 50%. Perhaps this is to retain control.

The company has had to say the least a real crap chart by any standard. Throughout the bull run it has trended sideways the whole time. The good news though is that some very positive signs are emerging. EPS is steadly growing. Operating margin and Net Profit MArgins are fantastic. John Singelton who was the former starter of this company no longer owns any of this stock. Some may be concerned by this but reports suggest that management are very strong and capable. The risks obviously revolve around the fact that it is hard to calculate forecast earnings when each separate business needs to be analysed. Anyway this might be one to put away for a dropping market. On forecast earnings of .24 for 2007 with a sector PE of 19 puts a price of $4.56 on the stock and the stock has an 8 year PE of 19.8 so on current price we get a forward PE of around 12.3 which certainly seems cheap. The company has a history of delivering an ROE of 12-20 which would suggest that the growth in earnings might be sustained atleast in the short term.

I hold
DYOR this is not financial advice.

 

[Nicks]

Re: SGN - Stw Communications Group

Agree, this stock has held up exceptionally well in the past few days of a falling market. Great returns too!

 

[Nicks]

Re: SGN - Stw Communications Group

I must have jinxed myself. Disappointing to see the result that came out yesterday after close.

I find the trading patter quite strange now in hindsight, explains the dropoff late yesterday - love the Australian market full of insider trading.

 

[Nicks]

Re: SGN - Stw Communications Group

Has anyone got any thoughts on this takeover speculation for SGN?

According to Huntley "....Management has been looking to simplify SGN’s corporate structure. WPP’s increased holding may be a first move in this, or they may be sniffing a potential bid, building a precautionary blocking stake, or simply soliciting rumour. Either way, interest can only be a positive thing for SGN in what has been a neglected stock trading at ~20% discount to market."

It posts high yields and is trading at a significant discount.

Curious as to whether this is speculation or if there is any more substance in it from any other sources, news, info or brother in laws.

 

[Rainmaker2000]

Re: SGN - Stw Communications Group

SGN has been one of my favourites for a while now.........not sure how many people have noticed but WPP now holds 19.5% of its stock with most of its shares being bought round $3.20, although its had a few bargains recently.....my view is that SGN on a fundamental basis is majorly undervalued...its got sound growth prospects, experienced management and is not a capital intensive business leading to much free cash flow...a bid would have to be pitched at round $4 bucks, Perpetual owns over 10% so here they go again.....Its probably only a 40% chance of a takeover soon with 60% being on WPP doing exactly what they say they are doing, buying an undervalued stock........WPP has been a long time business partner of SGN.....still, the time is right to make a play...if they were ever going to do it, it would be nowish

 

[Ken]

Re: SGN - Stw Communications Group

Chartwise, the stock looks very volatile. I looked at the stock at $3.00 lucky I didnt buy.

Probly in same boat as BOL.

Just unloved.

 

[Rainmaker2000]

Re: SGN - Stw Communications Group

I take it no one knows what's going on with SGN....todays price movement wasn't totally exceptional but it might need some explanation.......Hard to believe WPP is buying more shares as they will have to make a full takeover bid..the price may instead be reflecting the inevitable insiders buying just before a bid first thing Monday.....either way, I feel some good times ahead as an SGN holder

 

[niknah]

Re: SGN - Stw Communications Group

I just received my dividend yesterday, might have been people re-investing their dividend.
The volume was nearly 3x of the day before.

Date        Last  % Change	High  Low   Vol *  
28 Sep 2007 2.600 4% 		2.660 2.510 2,018,244 
27 Sep 2007 2.500 -2.34% 	2.550 2.470 712,288 
26 Sep 2007 2.560 0.79% 	2.570 2.540 295,263 
25 Sep 2007 2.540 0% 		2.580 2.520 647,802 
24 Sep 2007 2.540 -0.39% 	2.550 2.510 405,799

 

[Dutchy3]

Re: SGN - Stw Communications Group

I bought into this one LONG during the week ... looks to me like it could be poised the at least revisit 3.20 - 3.30 in the next few months.

 

[Rainmaker2000]

Re: SGN - Stw Communications Group

Nice result from STW, eps up around 8%.........Funny thing......the result is meant to be released first thing Friday, but Comsec has it right now......

Profit better than expected with the mid year downgrade......these guys look to really be going for growth now with divvies down, debt and cash up......they want to fund the growth just with cash flows and debt.......at PE10, pretty interesting value for a 'growth' stock with its pedigree......still, I won't complain, just sit back for value to be realised..........very excited about their digital business which not only shows significant revenue but good margin

 

[TheRage]

Re: SGN - STW Communications Group

I agree about the communications side of the business seems to be showing exceptional growth. Advertising side not doing so well but at least it only went back marginally. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the news. I was expecting it to be worse.

 

[Tukker]

Re: SGN - STW Communications Group

Anyone else see this chart as a potential break out? Strong support around 80c with progressively higher lower lows since February and a sideways movement for March.

A weakness to 80 cents and recovery would show simularities to the bull run in August 2009.

Annual report came out recently with predictable results for 2009, and the usual forward looking optimism.

**watching**

 

[Tukker]

Re: SGN - STW Communications Group

Ill answer my own post i guess..... Looks like it did Tukker, breaking out to 88.5 cents yesterday after reaching a high of 89.5. I wish i had free capital....

**Is anyone out there?**

 

[eunza]

Re: SGN - STW Communications Group

I've attached a daily chart of SGN - I'm going to describe the method of matching the RSCD chart 'History' or Rhyming to better understand the potential possibilities of future SP direction.

I've split the chart into 2 sections - Blue and Green.

The blue section was the last runup from April to June and the green is the current play.

RCD (middle chart) - check the comparisons of the blue and green trend channels - as mentioned earlier a downward pink trend above the Centre line will be neutral whereas under the centre line will be bullish - You can see the SP start to run up as the pink draws down at the start of the blue section and again when it renters mid may.
just before the green section starts you can see the several attempts to close below the line - when this does finally happen the SP begins to rise.
The RCD has also been held back at the short green line showing a double top and return to trending downwards below the centre line.
The final indicator is the drop below the lower green trend line - This can show that the RCD is picking up speed (bullish)

RSI (lower chart) The shading we are looking for is the dark blue. Note the trend of the blue sectioned compared with the trend on the Green.
The blue section rose consistently on its trend channel and when it faltered below the support you can see the resulting SP drop in mid june
On the green section we've just recently bounced off the support line for the 3rd time - and the current direction is a strong uptrend. (stronger than the last) It has also spiked up to the high of the first bounce.

Volume - Currently this is probably under the radar of most systems so we don't see much Volume increase yet- however due to the low risk of downside (that is the RCD confirmation) these plays are good to enter early.

So in overview - Strong RCD level, Strong RSI, minimal current volume and early signs of SP breakout.

 

[polska]

Re: SGN - STW Communications Group

i got on this bad boy at 86 cents, i'm hoping you are right and the trend keeps going up, a good company, profit guidance is on target, hoping it breaks the 1.00 soon

 

[eunza]

Re: SGN - STW Communications Group

What does this 2hour chart tell me?

That the overall trend for the bearish RCD (blue shading on middle chart) is DOWN - Lower high for each major peak.

The Bullish RCD signal (pink) is yet to be confirmed with lower lows however when the bearish peak fails to cross the centre line such as this case the % chance does improve.
Disclaimer - As per Tech/A's comment - which is 100% correct - The latest draw on the RCD is unconfirmed as it has not been closed - however checking the 15 min chart I can see that on a short term basis this has been confirmed on the short term.

RSI undecided as yet - however does show a slight upwards trend overall.

The pattern appears to be holding out overall - If the RCD blue section did cross 1 or both of the support lines I would consider an exit and look for another entry when it turned back around.

 

[eunza]

Re: SGN - STW Communications Group

Ok back on the daily chart -

so far we've had the expected result on the RCD trend in the green section (i haven't changed anything on this screen) I'd stay relatively bullish on the daily unless this cross back over the centre blue horizontal line. However I would also keep an eye on the 2 and 4 hour charts for any major pullbacks.

The weekly is also starting to show an interesting result - the RCD has been unable to break back through to the bearish side. Will visit this again after the next weekly close.

 

[eunza]

Re: SGN - STW Communications Group

RSCD looking strong at the moment for SGN.

-Nice steady SP uptrend
-beggining of short term bullish RCD behaviour
-RSI bullish

Also note the large increase of Volume (volume precedes price )

keep an eye on this one.

 

[polska]

Re: SGN - STW Communications Group

i am loving your work mate, keep up the good work, its looking quite promising, plus the recent election ads they have just released