• Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Hello and welcome to Aussie Stock Forums!

To gain full access you must register. Registration is free and takes only a few seconds to complete.

Already a member? Log in here.

WPL - Woodside Petroleum

Discussion in 'Stocks Q-Z' started by markrmau, Feb 12, 2005.

  1. markrmau

    markrmau

    Posts:
    869
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2004
    WPL finished strongly on friday. On Monday I am going to dump my NWS which doesn't seem to be going anywhere and by more WPL.
     
  2. Bingo

    Bingo

    Posts:
    186
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2004
    Re: wpl


    I agree that WPL go from strength tom strength, however, it seems to me that the price of NWS may be week as the institutions are still reducing their holdings.

    I suppose this is what makes a market, but, I am buying NWS on the expectation that the current weekness will be short lived.

    Bingo
     
  3. markrmau

    markrmau

    Posts:
    869
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2004
    Re: wpl

    In 12months, I think NWS will be spinning of great wads of cash and will be worth close to 30 AUD. In the short term, with AUD going up, instos selling, maybe this weekness will continue.

    On the otherhand, I can't work out why wpl went up so much. On another site, there is a suggestion that shell might be interested in having another tilt at wpl after Costello's wmc decission. I'm not convinced that shell would do this, despite shell having spare $$ lying around.

    Should I stay on one train, wondering when it will leave the station, or dash madly from platform to platform chasing trains as they pull away?
     
  4. still_in_school

    still_in_school

    Posts:
    302
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2004
    Re: wpl

    Hi Guys,

    Currently also have a bullish view for WPL, and also did go long on Friday, though trading warrants, as they offered a T11 day settlement + the leverage effect, for technical profit targets.

    In the Chart below WPL shows:

    * A technical support at $20.30 (also a triple bottom, is appearing, though isn't quite clear on the chart)
    * WPL is dancing along a primary long uptrend
    * Symentrical Triangular Breakout
    * Flag pattern appearing (and finishing on the triple bottom..) (possible technical breakout)
    * Candlestick pattern is a Marubozu Candlestick (Bullish Candlestick indicator, the candlestick is showing no shadows as wicks, and the open is showing, a push in price, with a close of the highest price for the day.

    Technical Targets are $21.29, as technical resistance, though a break or close above this technical resistance, would indicate a very bullish breakout...

    Cheers,
    sis

    ps.. will add technical indicators, to show further bullishness...
     

    Attached Files:

  5. still_in_school

    still_in_school

    Posts:
    302
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2004
    Re: wpl

    Hi Guys,

    RSI - has been rangeing, and is in positive territory, showing a positive bounce.

    MACD - turning positive and showing MA turning upwards, and about to cross.
    Though Divergence is still negative

    Stochastics - have turned positive, and have crossed.

    ** Though also, stochastics are commonly the first sign of a reversal, confirmed with candlesticks, then followed by other technical indicators secondly..

    Cheers,
    sis

    ps.. please only take my technical analysis as a guide of predicted price and market movements.
     

    Attached Files:

  6. still_in_school

    still_in_school

    Posts:
    302
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Jun 24, 2004
    Re: wpl

    Hi Guys,

    unfortunately, ive been exiting out of WPL this mornning, not because of the stock and its technicals, but due to its Warrant Spread..

    Did end up getting a very high price, for about a third of my position, though the market makers.. had almost a ridiculous spread at one time of about 20 cents difference.

    Im still bullish about WPL, though there seems to be some resistance at that $21.00 mark, though it got broken through today...

    Anyway, i do believe they are having a report of earnings and the usual stuff.. coming out this thursday..

    Will be looking to re-enter, though, most likely will be trading options instead.. due the wide spread.. (and to limit risk, than take on more risk)

    Cheers,
    sis
     
  7. markrmau

    markrmau

    Posts:
    869
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2004
    Re: wpl

    Buyers seem to be coming back into the market now - about 2.30pm.

    If it finishes above 2095 I am hoping it will continue up tomorrow. As you say above 2100 would be very good sign.
     
  8. markrmau

    markrmau

    Posts:
    869
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Sep 17, 2004
    Re: wpl

    Well I'm going to need a new set of undies. Nice recovery though.

    I set myself a stop loss of $21.10, but the volume was so light by the time it got down near there that I didn't worry.
     
  9. Bin57again

    Bin57again

    Posts:
    99
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    Jun 9, 2005
    WPL - Head and shoulders formation

    Hi
    I'm a beginner and wondering whether WPL is starting to form a head and shoulders top.
    Could any of the experts confirm or correct me please?
    Apologies no chart but I'm sure you all have access anyway.
    Thanks.
     
  10. RichKid

    RichKid PlanYourTrade > TradeYourPlan

    Posts:
    3,031
    Likes Received:
    3
    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2004
    Re: WPL - Head and shoulders formation

    Hi Bin,
    I'm not an expert but I've had a quick look at the chart out of curiosity, can't really see a H&S top atm, maybe I've missed it.
     

    Attached Files:

    • wpl.GIF
      wpl.GIF
      File size:
      37.8 KB
      Views:
      1,055
  11. michael_selway

    michael_selway Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

    Posts:
    2,397
    Likes Received:
    1
    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2005
    Re: WPL Woodside Petroleum

    WPL is only good if oil prices go up

    once it goes down....
     
  12. doctorj

    doctorj Hatchet Moderator

    Posts:
    3,271
    Likes Received:
    4
    Joined:
    Jan 3, 2005
    Re: WPL Woodside Petroleum

    I wholeheartedly disagree. Oil is at $60/barrel. Onshore oil costs about $10/bl to produce, a shallow offshore $16 and deep offshore about $22. This means WPL is pulling in, at the low end USD$38 per barrel profit. There reserves, in their own valuations are valued at AUD$5 per barrel. Even when discounting the cash flow for taxes, royalties and the time value of money and using the assumption that oil their oil is in deep offshore fields, you come up with a figure of USD$15.

    Sure, oil prices may revert to the mean, but using AUD$5 in valuations works out to be an implied price of approx USD$34 per barrel. Hands up who thinks oil is going to go back down to those levels any time soon?
     
  13. Knobby22

    Knobby22 Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

    Posts:
    5,891
    Likes Received:
    1,293
    Joined:
    Oct 13, 2004
    Re: WPL Woodside Petroleum

    I agree. It's a safe long term investment.
     
  14. RichKid

    RichKid PlanYourTrade > TradeYourPlan

    Posts:
    3,031
    Likes Received:
    3
    Joined:
    Jun 18, 2004
    Re: WPL Woodside Petroleum

    Saw this on another forum- I think it's so good I'm posting it here, I like non-conventional thinking, you can bet your bottom dollar the average punter will think the opposite.
     
  15. michael_selway

    michael_selway Coal & Phosphate, thats it!

    Posts:
    2,397
    Likes Received:
    1
    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2005
    Re: WPL Woodside Petroleum

    Hi true long term its pretty good, but ill say maybe 10-20 yrs. IMO i think there will be yrs when prices will fall back down possibly <$50/Barrel which WPL may return negative for shareholders

    http://www.smh.com.au/news/business...wn-petrol-price/2005/11/18/1132016987201.html
     
  16. Ann

    Ann

    Posts:
    2,093
    Likes Received:
    1,031
    Joined:
    Dec 24, 2005
    ..and a chart....
     

    Attached Files:

  17. lewstherin

    lewstherin

    Posts:
    76
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    May 9, 2006
    WPL copped a hammering today - dropped around 4.5%. Of course most of the oilers have taken 4-5% losses today.
    I'm wondering whether any of the peeps here have got any kind of target buy price for WPL, and more importantly what reasoning they are using for that.

    Personally I like WPL for a long term play, but felt the upper 40s was an over-pricing. With it skimming $41 today, I'm now re-examining the value proposition.
     
  18. Realist

    Realist Billie Jean is not my lover

    Posts:
    2,057
    Likes Received:
    1
    Joined:
    Jun 1, 2006
    I do not believe there is any value in Woodside at all.


    Sure a Hurricane could hit the States or a war starts in Iran, and the shares rocket upwards. But that is not value now - that is gambling on the future.

    Woodside is tremendously overpriced atm, it's Australia's 8 largest company. Buy Westfield instead - Australia's 9th largest company. :D

    The P/E rate is 1/4 of Woodside.

    Longterm would you rather own some good oil fields or have the worlds foremost shopping malls?

    Oil is in fashion now much like pink shirts were 2 years ago. The world is not short of oil and oil is overpriced as it is. It wont go up much more. Forget it!
     
  19. kennas

    kennas Searching

    Posts:
    15,109
    Likes Received:
    63
    Joined:
    Apr 21, 2006
    Realist,

    Depends on your theory on oil.

    Are there any other alternate energy sources to solve the worlds energy needs over the next 10 years?
    Will the key oil producers keep providing oil unobstructed by political expedience?
    Will the Middle East be at peace over the next 10 years?
    Will America stop trying to influence the rest of the world, politically and economically?
    Have there been any recent massive oil field discoveries?
    Have resource companies invested enough in exploration?
    Is there an infinite supply of oil trapped under the earths crust?

    If your answer to most of the above is NO, then oil is probably going to go UP in cost, not down.
     
  20. lewstherin

    lewstherin

    Posts:
    76
    Likes Received:
    0
    Joined:
    May 9, 2006
    I have 2 reasons for considering Woodside at a $40-41 price.

    1:
    Personally I cannot see oil dropping below $60 any time soon due to the supply situation.
    Unlike a metal like gold, people/countries cannot just stop using oil because they believe its overpriced; there just isnt enough in the alternative fuels pipeline to reduce the worlds oil dependancy for the next 10 years at least. And even if you believe there's plenty of oil under the ground, getting sufficient supplies above ground is an issue at present and will be going forward.
    I have generally valued oilers based on an oil market price of $55-65/barrel given its volatility (I wouldn't be surprised to see oil drop to around $60-65 by August before climbing back up for the Northern winter). Any extra earnings on a price over $60 is bonus for me.

    2:
    Gas. Right now natural gas is probably near its lowest point in the annual demand cycle given that the North is having summer. When winter hits, I think gas could get a bit more pricy, but I need to research the D/S situation a bit more.
    Beyond annual cycles, I think gas is increasingly becoming a stepping stone towards reducing oil dependancy for many countries. LPG is a viable fuel alternative and gas power plants have some advantages environmentally over coal. I think the developing countries - China and India - may well drive this demand as gas infrastructure becomes more prevalent there.

    If anything Woodside has huge gas production prospects for the next 10 years, thanks to it being involved in some of the best gas fields on the planet.
    Should the world go gas before getting onto alternative fuels, surely Woodside will be well positioned to provide to the associated growing demand?

    I'm gonna have a crack tonight at doing a valuation based on WPL's oil & gas production forecasts going forward. That might help clarify things regarding a decent value for the shares.
     

Share This Page