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Will Trump's tariffs lead to a global trade war?

Discussion in 'Business, Investment and Economics' started by greggles, Mar 5, 2018.

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  1. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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  2. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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  3. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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  4. Knobby22

    Knobby22 Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

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  5. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    Any deal is better than what was happening IMO, China has been dumping on a global scale for years and no one has had the gonads to call them on it.
    What was the alternative? do nothing and have every Countries manufacturing sent to the wall, by subsidised products from China.
    It isn't a win/win situation, it is more of a try and slow down the wave, sort of process.
    China has enough momentum, that its industrialization wont stop, but they have to be brought under some sort of global umbrella that respects other Countries rights to fair trade and intellectual property.
    What has any other leader, other than Trump done about it?
     
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  6. Jack Aubrey

    Jack Aubrey Very inexperienced trader

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    I am not (yet) convinced Trump has actually DONE anything about the underlying problems of currency manipulation, IP theft, tariffs and dumping. We haven't seen any agreements yet, although I am encouraged by the current delay as that could mean that there are substantive issues involved, rather than just window-dressing.

    This dispute has done a lot of damage to world trade (although it has probably been a slight net benefit to Australia so far). I'm not against Trump's disruptive tactics but I see him as a very "transactional" and short-term thinker* more concerned with the domestic political optics that any real and lasting reform. If he simply does a narrow US/China deal based on particular commodities (eg. allowing more US access to China's markets) he'll effectively be throwing other export countries, like us, under a bus.

    The damage to the world trade system will take a long time to repair, particularly if other politicians believe that Trump has been "successful". Every tin-pot nationalist/populist/protectionist will see opportunities to pick trade fights with "foreigners" to bolster their credentials at home. That is always a short-term game.

    * "thinker" may be the wrong word here, but you get my drift.
     
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  7. SirRumpole

    SirRumpole

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  8. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    I agree with your sentiment, however I am a strong believer that the Lima accord has over reached its intention in the case of China, China has the manufacturing capability and political structure to send all first World Countries manufacturing broke.
    It has increased the living standards for China, which is great, but there has to come a time where they cut back their growth to allow World industry balance to recover. That can either be done by agreement, or by increasing the value of China's currency, neither of which China wanted to do.
    So in my opinion, Trump is trying to do what no other Country would be able to do and until him the U.S.A didn't have the stomach for.
    It should be remembered that most of the big multi nationals are American and are making a lot of money from offshoring their manufacturing to China, they wont be happy with Trump and as can be seen by the media coverage they have a lot of leverage.
    Anyway only my opinion and it's worth what it costs.
     
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  9. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    Correction to the previous post it should read Lima Agreement, not Lima Accord. :D
    Too many meetings in Lima.
     
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  10. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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  11. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    Or maybe not. :roflmao:

    https://www.theage.com.au/business/...tariffs-on-chinese-goods-20191109-p538z2.html
    From the article:
    Trump has used tariffs on billions of dollars of Chinese goods as his primary weapon in the protracted trade war, which is aimed at forcing major changes in China's trade and industrial policies. The United States is demanding that China end the theft and forced transfer of American intellectual property and curb subsidies to state-owned enterprises, while granting US companies more access to China's markets. Trump also wants China to vastly increase its purchases of US farm products.

    The "phase one" trade deal would largely address farm purchases, access to China's financial services market and improve copyright and trademark protections in China. More difficult technology transfer issues, subsidies and cybersecurity rules would be left to future negotiations.

    White House trade adviser Peter Navarro, one of the Trump administration's loudest anti-China voices, lashed out at journalists on Friday in an e-mail, accusing them of being "played" by Chinese "propagandists" who were falsely stating that the two sides had agreed to cancel tariffs in phases.


    Navarro complained that too many reports relied on anonymous sources and said only Trump and US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer should be quoted on stories about the China trade negotiations
    .
     
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