• Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Which way did the news break?

Discussion in 'Trading Strategies/Systems' started by skc, May 16, 2017.

  1. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    I have created a simple chart game.

    Each of these charts are taken from real ASX stocks. In each case, there is a major price move triggered by a news event. Did the preceding price action provide a hint on which way the news broke?

    Enter the game here. https://www.surveymonkey.com/r/FF6LD6G

    I will compile the results when I get a meaningful number of results.

    It's not meant to statistically prove anything... just a bit of fun in a slow market.

    AAA

    AAA.JPG

    BBB
    BBB.JPG

    CCC
    CCC.JPG

    DDD
    DDD.JPG


    EEE
    EEE.JPG

    FFF
    FFF.JPG


    GGG
    GGG.JPG


    HHH
    HHH.JPG



    III
    III.JPG


    JJJ
    JJJ.JPG
     
  2. skc

    skc Goldmember

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  3. peter2

    peter2

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    :laugh: I'll have a go (without cheating). What will you do if the VIX hits single digits?
     
  4. Quant

    Quant

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    This a bit like trying to identify a car by a photo of a 30cm square photo of middle of bonnet . Given this is a test of my " news is in the price " statement i'd suggest its designed to trap me and has been cherry picked as such to trip me up so select the opposite of what seems obvious seems the play :roflmao:

    PS ... a bit more of the left hand side might be advantageous
     
  5. peter2

    peter2

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    I've found it extremely unreliable trying to choose which way the market will go after news. Even if I get it right 50% of the time, the profits won't pay for the losses. I'd need to get >80% right just to have a chance at some profit. I'm much happier trading ordinary price break-outs and avoiding the news events.
     
  6. Boggo

    Boggo

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    CYB issued their financials today after the market closed.

    Ok, lets see how this goes over the next week, an opportunity for some 'buyers' to offload to those that get excited by just reading the latest report or an opportunity for a report driven further run up ??????????

    CYB had a confirmed (imo) breakout at the beginning of April and a $0.60 run up from the end of March.

    The financial 6 months was to the 31st of March. There are no reports that would warrant that run up in that period (again imo).

    Why did it run up and where to from here ? (got my popcorn and comfy chair ready ;))


    CYB Reports.jpgCYB D 150517.jpg
     
  7. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    Yes I did make these charts because of the discussion we had... but it's not designed to trap you. You can second guess the chart and use reverse psychology... but you will then have to take it to the next order and think how I might think you would think that way... and so on and so forth. :)

    Most charts have over 5-6 months of bars included so it's a bit more than a 30cm square photo of a bonnet. May be more like a low resolution satellite imagery of a car.

    It's all a bit of fun - I recently discovered the use of Survey Monkey for fun social purpose like these - so let's get more respondents!!

    Yes it's a worry....
     
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  8. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    I didn't think much about it when I pull the charts together, but as it turns out only 2 of the 15 charts involved a news event that was scheduled. So if anyone had a position at the time they would have no choice but to participate in the subsequent price action.
     
  9. Quant

    Quant

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    Hmmm the old second guess the second guess ploy :roflmao: , I am now getting a headache
     
  10. craft

    craft

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    IN relation to AAA (sirtex) there is news out again in the next 24 hours so if somebody could kindly tell me prior to the news with certainty how the market will react this time to the expected results that would be greatly appreciated.

    Thanks in advance.
     
  11. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    Please don't spoil the game :(
     
  12. craft

    craft

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    Quant likes this.
  13. craft

    craft

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    It's a better game played in real time - that's where the real money is made or lost. What's going to happen tomorrow/ Thu on news release??? Somebody please do tell.
     
    Last edited: May 16, 2017
  14. Gringotts Bank

    Gringotts Bank

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    I can't always tell where the major change in price is.
     
  15. Boggo

    Boggo

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    Looks like the people who loaded up and drove it up are taking profits. When they expire it should resume the uptrend.
     
  16. craft

    craft

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    Sorry skc, but if anybody interprets that market lead up to the sirflox results in example AAA as anticipating bad news then they too have probably identified the stock and know the outcome.

    Lets replace that historical example with a live one.

    SRX just went into a trading halt. No 30cm square photo of middle of bonnet here everything is on the table, you can even go study the shorts chart - For those that think all news is already in the chart - what will be the outcome here? Your chance to impress prior to news being released at ASCO early tomorrow morning.
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2017
  17. galumay

    galumay learner

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    ***pulls up a chair, opens a nice bottle of red, waits patiently***
     
  18. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Sits next to Galumay

    SRX
    Short to flat.

    But with ALL of these why would you take a trade if you weren't already in it before the news was released.
    Just wait and see.
     
  19. Quant

    Quant

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    agree with Tech , I see no reason to be long SRX in recent history regardless of where it moves when resumes
     
  20. Boggo

    Boggo

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    While you guys are sitting around maybe you can guess if there is any news on the horizon for NHF ?
    Currently sitting on $5.40, gotta love stops :xyxthumbs

    NHF D 160517.jpg
     
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