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What will the Australian market do on Monday?

Discussion in 'ASX Stock Chat' started by Miner, Jul 6, 2019.


Aussie Stock Forum Sentifi Top themes and market attention on:

  1. Miner


    Likes Received:
    May 2, 2007
    Good morning Folks
    I was searching for an appropriate thread forum to share the following information and how Monday ASX will behave as a reflection of what happens in Wall Street on Friday (5 July) night.
    Dear @Joe Blow please transfer my posting to an appropriate place, as I found it is an ocean of forums to search for and refrained to create another one :)
    extract from Marcus Today (one of the most respected writers in stock market publishing in my opinion, in addition to Alan Kohler). The volume of the extract is within the copyright provision.
    3.94% in BHP price and 5.15% drop i Rio Price will definitely make side effect on others as ASX 20, 50 and 200 would be affected so would be investment value of funders. Preferably do not watch on Monday or to look for opportunity.
    What Marcus also published this Fear and Greed Index - I liked it
    Tagged a few to comment : @kennas , @Joe Blow , @tech/a , @So_Cynical , @Ann , @barney , @SirRumpole , @greggles , @Trav. , @rnr , @peter2 , @skc , @Garpal Gumnut , @galumay , @Gringotts Bank

    The first is a strong jobs numbers in the US that has created fears that interest rates may not be cut as fast as expected in the US. Whilst the chances of a 25bp rate cut at the FOMC meeting on July 31 remain at 100%, the chances of a 50bp cut have dropped overnight from 29.2% to 4.9%. The market has been supported by crashing interest rates in the last six months helped by Trump’s pressure on the FOMC to stimulate the economy and therefore the stock-market by keeping rates down. A change in interest rate trend would kill the market.

    The second development is a sharp drop in mining stocks with BHP down 3.94% in the US and RIO down 5.15%. That comes as a group of China’s leading steel companies form a group to investigate record iron ore prices and determine whether “nonmarket factors” causing a record surge in iron ore prices. The group has also asked the government to maintain market stability. JPMorgan also has some research out saying that it expects a 100 million tonne art or deficit this year but that they don’t expect the $125 iron ore price to last given the strong incentive for supply restarts and the seasonal downturn in Chinese demand in the second half.

    Both these developments are interesting because we, and many of you, are waking up every day wondering when this dream run is going to end and both could tip as over.

    This BHP and RIO are obviously large components of the index in Australia and have had a fabulous year up 27% and 29% against a market up 6.5% as they rode a 68% jump in the iron ore price last year (which compares to all the metal prices and the oil price down 15 to 20%). It has been an extraordinary six months for the iron ore price (see chart below). A peak in the resources sector could certainly undermine the index.

    peter2, basilio, cynic and 3 others like this.
  2. Joe Blow

    Joe Blow Administrator Staff Member

    Likes Received:
    May 28, 2004
    I just moved it to its own thread titled, "What will the Australian market do on Monday?"

    Perhaps this thread can be used for weekend discussion when there has been some interesting developments in the US market on Friday night.
    cynic, Skate and Smurf1976 like this.
  3. Eddie_E


    Likes Received:
    May 24, 2019
    I felt last week was a bit of a sell off for growth stocks, the latest RBA cut being more of a hindrance this time. Hoping things steady next week but feeling more gains will be lost as things stay uncertain with FY reporting around the corner!
  4. Logique

    Logique Investor

    Likes Received:
    Apr 18, 2007

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