Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

USD Discussion

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There has been an ongoing crisis in the U.S economy after the Mr. Trump become the U.S president beating Hilary Clinton On 8th November 2016. The green bucks gained an immense amount of strength in the global market after Mr. Trump stated that they are going to increase the fiscal spending and include tax cut policy to bring stability in the U.S economy. Such a great optimistic statement from the newly elected U.S president pushed the green bucks higher in the global market. Due to the extreme level of U.S positive consumer and U.S interest rate hike in the month of December, the U.S dollar index secured a 14-year record high in the global market. However, the market absorbed most of the bullish power of the green bucks in the CFD trading industry prior to the closing of the year 2016.

Uncertainty in U.S political conditions: There has been a massive decline in the U.S dollar index and it has secured a six-month low in the global market pushing all of its major rivals higher in the market. Things become further worse after Mr. Trump pressurized FBI director James Comey to put an end to the agency investigations. Such a drastic action from Mr. Trump intensified the sentiment of the consumer in a negative way and pushed the dollar lower in the global market. According to the leading economist, the U.S economy might face much extensive selling pressure in near future as Mr. Trump administration is totally unclear and unpredictable.

U.S pending rate hike: Though the dollar is subdued under extensive bearish pressure in the global market but the investors are still waiting cautiously for a strong turnaround in the green bucks with the rate hike decision by FED. If the FED manages to implement another rate hike in the month of June then we might see another bullish recovery in the U. S dollar index. However, the Aussie economy is doing pretty well in the global market and the AUDUSD pair has been skyrocketing by utilizing the negative sentiment of the U.S consumers. Compared to the previous year CFD trading has become much more difficult but some of the aggressive traders have made a decent profit by going in favor of the Australian economy.

Currency market overview: Most of the major currency pair in the global market is rallying higher against the green bucks for the last three months. Though the FED have hiked their interest rate one time this year but things went pretty negative for the green bucks as Mr. Trump failed to keep his promise regarding the increment of fiscal spending. The EURUSD pair gained near 0.84% in the global market and secured a high of 1.1196.The Great Britain pound gained near about 0.64% and traded at 1.3023 which is the largest gain for this year. On the contrary, there has been a massive decline for near about 0.55 percent in the USDCHF pair. The pair traded at 09744 prior to the market closing. Considering all the currency pairs in the CFD trading industry the Aussie economy is doing relatively well in the global market despite the ongoing political crisis and optimistic Aussie buyers made a decent profit in the global market.

Summary: Trading the financial instrument has become pretty much complex nowadays and most of the dollar bulls are pretty much worried about the prolonged negative performance in the U.S economy. Some of the leading currency analysts are suggesting that the dollar will weaken furthermore in near future unless FED comes up with a solid rate hike with a hawkish statement in the FOMC meeting minutes. The FED has projected three rate hike in the year 2017, out of which only one has been implementing. If the current performance of the U.S economy remains in such negative phase then we might see a strong delay in the next rate hike which will ultimately push the dollar lower in the global market.
 

DeepState

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Who are you DB? Apart from the obvious. Nice to have a big picture person join ASF who speaks with some knowledge.

Why is DXY at post Trump lows whereas equities and bonds remain standing? 2017-05-24 20_23_09-Data (13) - Excel.png
 
Joined
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Who are you DB? Apart from the obvious. Nice to have a big picture person join ASF who speaks with some knowledge.

Why is DXY at post Trump lows whereas equities and bonds remain standing? View attachment 71263
I am professional long term forex trader and currency strategist.Indeed your question is burning one but no can still predict the USD index value with a greater level of precision due Mr.Trump administration and U.S pending interest rate hike decision.
 
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There has been an ongoing crisis in the U.S economy after the Mr. Trump become the U.S president beating Hilary Clinton On 8th November 2016. The green bucks gained an immense amount of strength in the global market after Mr. Trump stated that they are going to increase the fiscal spending and include tax cut policy to bring stability in the U.S economy. Such a great optimistic statement from the newly elected U.S president pushed the green bucks higher in the global market. Due to the extreme level of U.S positive consumer and U.S interest rate hike in the month of December, the U.S dollar index secured a 14-year record high in the global market. However, the market absorbed most of the bullish power of the green bucks in the CFD trading industry prior to the closing of the year 2016.

Uncertainty in U.S political conditions: There has been a massive decline in the U.S dollar index and it has secured a six-month low in the global market pushing all of its major rivals higher in the market. Things become further worse after Mr. Trump pressurized FBI director James Comey to put an end to the agency investigations. Such a drastic action from Mr. Trump intensified the sentiment of the consumer in a negative way and pushed the dollar lower in the global market. According to the leading economist, the U.S economy might face much extensive selling pressure in near future as Mr. Trump administration is totally unclear and unpredictable.

U.S pending rate hike: Though the dollar is subdued under extensive bearish pressure in the global market but the investors are still waiting cautiously for a strong turnaround in the green bucks with the rate hike decision by FED. If the FED manages to implement another rate hike in the month of June then we might see another bullish recovery in the U. S dollar index. However, the Aussie economy is doing pretty well in the global market and the AUDUSD pair has been skyrocketing by utilizing the negative sentiment of the U.S consumers. Compared to the previous year CFD trading has become much more difficult but some of the aggressive traders have made a decent profit by going in favor of the Australian economy.

Currency market overview: Most of the major currency pair in the global market is rallying higher against the green bucks for the last three months. Though the FED have hiked their interest rate one time this year but things went pretty negative for the green bucks as Mr. Trump failed to keep his promise regarding the increment of fiscal spending. The EURUSD pair gained near 0.84% in the global market and secured a high of 1.1196.The Great Britain pound gained near about 0.64% and traded at 1.3023 which is the largest gain for this year. On the contrary, there has been a massive decline for near about 0.55 percent in the USDCHF pair. The pair traded at 09744 prior to the market closing. Considering all the currency pairs in the CFD trading industry the Aussie economy is doing relatively well in the global market despite the ongoing political crisis and optimistic Aussie buyers made a decent profit in the global market.

Summary: Trading the financial instrument has become pretty much complex nowadays and most of the dollar bulls are pretty much worried about the prolonged negative performance in the U.S economy. Some of the leading currency analysts are suggesting that the dollar will weaken furthermore in near future unless FED comes up with a solid rate hike with a hawkish statement in the FOMC meeting minutes. The FED has projected three rate hike in the year 2017, out of which only one has been implementing. If the current performance of the U.S economy remains in such negative phase then we might see a strong delay in the next rate hike which will ultimately push the dollar lower in the global market.
Who are you DB? Apart from the obvious. Nice to have a big picture person join ASF who speaks with some knowledge.

Why is DXY at post Trump lows whereas equities and bonds remain standing? View attachment 71263


In my opinion a major issue with fundamentals is that you can justify anything. A qualitative debate becomes impossible to win and god forbid a theological debate.

It sounds nice to justify how the market has moved but really a lot of the time is interesting but neither here nor there.

I remember the tapering decision years ago which was a precursor the the lifting of rates in the US. The market got caught of guard as the expectation was no reduction of tapering. Almost every commentator on TV spoke with authority about the Fed's comments about this or that. My argument was that relative to overseas standards and US inflation,rates should be higher. That the Feds was playing silly buggers. The fed and gov wants to keep inflation in check and stop the masses rioting and also the resulting economic conditions.

The market got caught out and the piranha effect of the news and then momentum following meant large moves on that day for the aussie stock, bond and currency. Even though I was a contrarian and correct as a armchair commentator I thought higher rates= better economy= higher stock market although the market thought the opposite etc. I would have lost money on a potential trade hahaha.

The most absurd aspect was that all the commentators who were wrong then went on to justify the decision as if they knew-with a sense of authority again especially by using fancy words. I thought mate you just go it wrong, go back analyse why you got it wrong and admit it. Don't try and bs your way out of it.

Looking at the rise of equities in the US. The same piranha mentality comes to mind. Long term investors betting on Trump stimulus, momentum following the move especially if it is past key resistance as well as the equity culture of buy and hold from US and overseas investors.

When I see fundamental posts like this it is interesting but does not show the mindset of a trader. Fundamentals can give over confidence as you can justify anything. In my mind a person would say here is the situation. From that comes my analysis. Here is the potential play. Potential risk and reward. eg I think the market is wrong about trump. I think fundamentally equities are overvalued, this is the technical price points etc etc.

Just like the commentators blaming Yellen when rates move it is very easy to just blame trump/ the trump effect.

But it does not practically help anyone.
 

DeepState

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In my opinion a major issue with fundamentals is that you can justify anything.
...


When I see fundamental posts like this it is interesting but does not show the mindset of a trader. Fundamentals can give over confidence as you can justify anything. In my mind a person would say here is the situation. From that comes my analysis. Here is the potential play. Potential risk and reward. eg I think the market is wrong about trump. I think fundamentally equities are overvalued, this is the technical price points etc etc.

Just like the commentators blaming Yellen when rates move it is very easy to just blame trump/ the trump effect.

But it does not practically help anyone.

So, I am confused.

Fundamentals are interesting but useless.

"I think the market is wrong about Trump"
"I think fundamentally equities are overvalued"

"From that comes my analysis." Is that some form of technical analysis?

And, removing anything other than price action (to reduce reliance on fundamental considerations), if two lines happen to cross in some special way, is that supposed to be some sort of unambiguous signal to go in one direction? Particularly when those lines are often drawn by eye, trying different time frames,... Give a set of charts to T/A guys for 5 minutes...let's see what comes out. It will be interesting for sure and a lot of things will also be justified.

I am asking for you to clarify your perspective because these phrases do not hang together. That's it. Let's not descend into another debate on T/A vs F/A. If you make money, good.
 
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So, I am confused.

Fundamentals are interesting but useless.

"I think the market is wrong about Trump"
"I think fundamentally equities are overvalued"

"From that comes my analysis." Is that some form of technical analysis?

And, removing anything other than price action (to reduce reliance on fundamental considerations), if two lines happen to cross in some special way, is that supposed to be some sort of unambiguous signal to go in one direction? Particularly when those lines are often drawn by eye, trying different time frames,... Give a set of charts to T/A guys for 5 minutes...let's see what comes out. It will be interesting for sure and a lot of things will also be justified.

I am asking for you to clarify your perspective because these phrases do not hang together. That's it. Let's not descend into another debate on T/A vs F/A. If you make money, good.
Exactly my point.
Philosophy can justify anything.

That is why the post is meaningless. Contradictions to cover yourself and then blame Trump for being wrong.
 
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I bought some of the USD ETF today after offloading and taking profit on some gold stocks.
I think the AUD will have a bit of a breather against the USD.
Of course I could be completely wrong, but noting @OmegaTrader post above, will come back and admit it.
Mick
 
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I bought some of the USD ETF today after offloading and taking profit on some gold stocks.
I think the AUD will have a bit of a breather against the USD.
Of course I could be completely wrong, but noting @OmegaTrader post above, will come back and admit it.
Mick
that is a dangerous game, USD is doomed short to mid term, japan offloading billions as do the saudis not to mention Russia, China and all big positive exporter nations...
But yes short term you can trade it I slowly unloaded my usd in the past couple of months back to AUD and CHF
Even with the Credit Suisse issues, i believe probably single handed that the CHF still has a refuge place when fiats start crashing
 
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that is a dangerous game, USD is doomed short to mid term, japan offloading billions as do the saudis not to mention Russia, China and all big positive exporter nations...
But yes short term you can trade it I slowly unloaded my usd in the past couple of months back to AUD and CHF
Even with the Credit Suisse issues, i believe probably single handed that the CHF still has a refuge place when fiats start crashing
i have been hearing about the demise of the USD for the past 50 years.
I tend to look at history.
In virtually every event where there is some from of crisis, 'flight to Quality" kicks in and people head to the USD.
Why people think there is quality in a fiat currency that has been debased seemingly to oblivion is beyond me.
I think its stupid, but I react to what the market does, rather than what it should.
if the US falls into recession, which a lot of the experts reckon will happen, the flight to the USD will occur again.
Mick
 
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i have been hearing about the demise of the USD for the past 50 years.
I tend to look at history.
In virtually every event where there is some from of crisis, 'flight to Quality" kicks in and people head to the USD.
Why people think there is quality in a fiat currency that has been debased seemingly to oblivion is beyond me.
I think its stupid, but I react to what the market does, rather than what it should.
if the US falls into recession, which a lot of the experts reckon will happen, the flight to the USD will occur again.
Mick
Which is why I flew to the usd at 77c or so 12 months ago but I got the feeling we saw a few strange usd gold behaviours which might indicate the start of the collapse.
Do not take me wrong,, I have heavy chf, PM.. and still USD positions More I suspect than most of people here
 
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