Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

US Market

Jump to new
I

Inklings

Joined
26 September 2023
Posts
2
Reactions
2
Index options #SP500 #NAS100 appeared to buy the dip, where as the single name stocks and Indexes #S&P500 #Nasdaq had large reductions in OI that didn’t look like delta hedge reduction. The market can hook up from a reduction in positioning, as it seems to get lighter. This can either be bought by FOMO or just be a dead cat bounce as MMs sell into the upward drift. Banks stocks had a higher low in gamma and DPI rising, which is bullish, though everything has to be taken in context
 

Attachments

  • 25.09 Positioning_page-0001.jpg
    25.09 Positioning_page-0001.jpg
    190.7 KB · Views: 8
  • Banks 26.09.png
    Banks 26.09.png
    1.4 MB · Views: 8
1698350781915.png


What a kerfuffle.

Even the Russell 2000 looks anemic touching yearly lows overnight, godzownsstates' times.

I am fortunate to have finally gone to total cash this time last week with the last of my US oilers and now looking forward to re-engaging with REM sleep for a month or three.

The time of easy gains on stocks worldwide has passed.

I might buy meself an ice cream on The Strand come wakeup time later this morning with the ilgotten gains.

Life is indeed good.

gg
 
Garpal Gumnut said:
View attachment 164699

What a kerfuffle.

Even the Russell 2000 looks anemic touching yearly lows overnight, godzownsstates' times.

I am fortunate to have finally gone to total cash this time last week with the last of my US oilers and now looking forward to re-engaging with REM sleep for a month or three.

The time of easy gains on stocks worldwide has passed.

I might buy meself an ice cream on The Strand come wakeup time later this morning with the ilgotten gains.

Life is indeed good.

gg
Click to expand...
have most of the cash deployed ( but not all of it in the markets )

looks like i might finally (crisis) test my strategy ie are my 'safe-havens' really that safe , and will those 'income stocks' continue to trickle income

interesting times
 
I note a couple of interesting things from the US market overnight.
!. Job Openings unexpectdly rebounded to 9 million overnight, (Zero Hedge )
2. UPS share price has fallen 10% over the pst few days as it announced it will cut 12,000 jobs from its 85,000 payroll, due to a 31.8% drop in quarterly profit ( NY Post )
3. Googles share price fell 4% after hours as ad revenue was missing experts expectations l (WSJ )
4. Apple Shares fell 4% overnight as Barclays put a downgrade on it due to lacklustre Iphone 15 sales (Yahoo Finance )
5. mircrosfy was initially downgraded after beating forecasts, but recovered during the day. (Bloombergs ).
it would suggest that the big players at least are fully priced, and have topped ouyt.

Edited to add that Paypal will axe about 9% of its workforce. (CNBC )
Mick
 
Just letting anybody know : Thought provoking article in today's AFR " Five reasons US stocks may not be that expensive " .
It reminded me of Buffet's " You've got to be brave to bet against the USA "
From the article : a thousand dollars invested in the S& P 500 from March 2009 to now , would have compounded by 80 % more than same amount in our ASX/ S & P 200 index . ( Our lumbering big four making up 27 % of the index , I think? )

Good thread but couldn't understand that first post . Mr. Inklings was only here for just over a week .
Ah ! They come and they go .
 
dyna said:
Just letting anybody know : Thought provoking article in today's AFR " Five reasons US stocks may not be that expensive " .
It reminded me of Buffet's " You've got to be brave to bet against the USA "
From the article : a thousand dollars invested in the S& P 500 from March 2009 to now , would have compounded by 80 % more than same amount in our ASX/ S & P 200 index . ( Our lumbering big four making up 27 % of the index , I think? )

Good thread but couldn't understand that first post . Mr. Inklings was only here for just over a week .
Ah ! They come and they go .
Click to expand...
Last night, the US index had 52 companies that reached a 52 week high.
Its a sort of high of the highs.
Its been three years since the Index had that many 52 week highs in one session.
The tops in.
Mick
 
The financial world (and me) often pour scorn on the fake data coming out of China.
Perhaps its time they statred looking in their own backyard.
Case in point is thecontuniual manipulation of headline data.
From Zero hedge
What was until recently a "red-hot" economy, with the US reportedlygrowing at an annual rate of 4.9% in Q3 and 3.4% in Q4 2024, has suddenly and dramatically downshifted, and according to the latest GDP data released from Biden's BEA, Q1 GDP was revised downward from 1.6% to just 1.3% (1.250% to be specific), which was the lowest GDP since the mini-recession of Q2 when GDP declined for 2 quarters in a row.

gdp%20q1%202024.jpg

The sharp downward revision primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending, which rose 2.0% annualized, down from 2.5% in the first GDP report and below the 2.2% estimate.
bfmE594.jpg

Drilling down into the number, the 1.3% increase reflected increases in consumer spending (below previous forecasts) and housing investment that were partly offset by a decrease in inventory investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
  • The increase in consumer spending reflected an increase in services that was partly offset by a decrease in goods. Within services, the leading contributors to the increase were health care as well as financial services and insurance. Within goods, the leading contributors to the decrease were motor vehicles and parts as well as gasoline and other energy goods.
  • The increase in housing investment was led by brokers’ commissions and other ownership transfer costs as well as new single-family housing construction.
  • The decrease in inventory investment was led by decreases in wholesale trade and manufacturing
In terms of bottom-line contributions, we find the following:
  • Personal consumption accounted for 1.34% (down from 1.68%), or more than the entire GDP print.
  • Fixed Investment added 1.02%, up from 0.91% in the first estimate.
  • The change in private inventories subtracted -0.45%, a deterioration from the -0.35% estimated previously.
  • Net trade (exports less imports), subtracted -0.89% from the bottom line print, comparable to the -0.86% detraction in the first estimate.
  • Finally, government added just 0.23%, up from 0.21% initially estimated, yet still the lowest contribution since Q2 2022.
GDP%20q1%202024%20detail.jpg

Turning to the PCE and price component, while all eyes will be on tomorrow's PCE report, the GDP report - which is clearly quite as it covers Q1 - found that purchases prices, the prices of goods and services purchased by U.S. residents, increased
3.0 percent in the first quarter after increasing 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter. This was down from 3.1% reported in the first GDP report and is also below the 3.1% estimate. Excluding food and energy, prices increased 3.2 percent after increasing 2.1 percent.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) prices increased 3.3% in the first quarter after increasing 1.8% in the fourth quarter. Excluding food and energy, the PCE “core” price index increased 3.6% after increasing 2.0%. This number was also below the 3.7% estimate.
Overall, the GDP number confirms that the US economy is slowing rapidly as US consumers - especially those in the lower half - have hit a brick wall with maxed out credit cards and wages which fail to keep up with inflation.

Mick


https://www.zerohedge.com/the-market-ear/latest/1
 
a view

.
"Meantime, we need to get set for a Trump Presidency and we know what that looks like.

Trump doesn’t like a strong U.S Dollar, and he doesn’t like high interest rates.

He doesn’t like Jerome Powell, and Powell doesn’t like him.

Trump is not troubled by high levels of debt.

Trump loves tariffs.

Hence, the first easy observation is that Trump’s economic policies will be inflationary.

Let me be even more direct.

I think a Trump Presidency will be good for gold, bad for the dollar, and bad for bonds.

I also think that Trump’s return to the White House could be good for small businesses and regional banks.

As is well known small business owners are largely Trump supporters and prefer lower taxes and less regulation.
,,,,,

In essence a Trump win in November could lead to the long-awaited ‘Great Rotation’ away from long-duration technology stocks to shorter-duration cyclical stocks.

I don’t think the market waits for November...

"
 
Dona Ferentes said:
a view

.
"Meantime, we need to get set for a Trump Presidency and we know what that looks like.

Trump doesn’t like a strong U.S Dollar, and he doesn’t like high interest rates.

He doesn’t like Jerome Powell, and Powell doesn’t like him.

Trump is not troubled by high levels of debt.

Trump loves tariffs.

Hence, the first easy observation is that Trump’s economic policies will be inflationary.

Let me be even more direct.

I think a Trump Presidency will be good for gold, bad for the dollar, and bad for bonds.

I also think that Trump’s return to the White House could be good for small businesses and regional banks.

As is well known small business owners are largely Trump supporters and prefer lower taxes and less regulation.
,,,,,

In essence a Trump win in November could lead to the long-awaited ‘Great Rotation’ away from long-duration technology stocks to shorter-duration cyclical stocks.

I don’t think the market waits for November...

"
Click to expand...
Makes a lot of sense, where did you find that opinion Mr @Dona Ferentes ?
 
Some time in August 2012, the us debt to GDP ratio went above 100, where it has stood since.
As of today, for every $100$ increase in GDP, it takes $122 of debt to achieve it.
Makes a bit of a mockery of the concept that debt leads to productive increases in GDP.

1719819956732.png


Mick
and it has been above 100 ever since.
 
mullokintyre said:
Some time in August 2012, the us debt to GDP ratio went above 100, where it has stood since.
As of today, for every $100$ increase in GDP, it takes $122 of debt to achieve it.
Makes a bit of a mockery of the concept that debt leads to productive increases in GDP.

View attachment 179718

Mick
and it has been above 100 ever since.
Click to expand...
well it can , but it needs very wise deployment of the capital and rigid discipline in the project management

time will tell if promises are delivered ( and i am not holding my breath )
 
The big boys are dumping shares onto the retail market, telling the mums and dads about the stronger for longer meme, while hitailing out of the market.
What more do we need?
Mick

1719824817201.png
 
mullokintyre said:
The big boys are dumping shares onto the retail market, telling the mums and dads about the stronger for longer meme, while hitailing out of the market.
What more do we need?
Mick

View attachment 179719
Click to expand...
Another quick check on looking at the activities of those closest to the pulse.
The corporate insiders have been decidedly more active of late.
Take the money and run is the mantra.
Mick
1722479761139.png
 

Attachments

  • 1722479745423.png
    1722479745423.png
    171.9 KB · Views: 5
I wonder if the insiders who have extracted their wealth from the companies that they are inside of have deposited them into the Private equity market in Anticipation that some assets may come up cheap as things go a little pear shaped?
From Institutional Investor
1722498286691.png

As always, follow the money.
Mick
 
mullokintyre said:
I wonder if the insiders who have extracted their wealth from the companies that they are inside of have deposited them into the Private equity market in Anticipation that some assets may come up cheap as things go a little pear shaped?
From Institutional Investor
View attachment 181817
As always, follow the money.
Mick
Click to expand...
And in a similar vein, it seems that the Oracle from Omaha has joined the retreat.
Bloombergs repported that Buffet had sold Bank of America for 12 days straight.
Warren Buffett sold shares of Bank of America Corp. for the 12th straight day, wiping away the lender’s lead on its benchmark index this year as his conglomerate trims the longtime investment.

His Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has cut its stake in the bank by a total of 8.8% since mid-July, generating $3.8 billion in proceeds. Berkshire disclosed the latest round of disposals in a regulatory filing late Thursday, saying it reaped $779 million on July 30 through Aug. 1.
Click to expand...
And to add to the selloff, Buffet has cut his investment in apple to half of ehat it was.
1722821657753.png


Buffets cash holdings have taken a real boost this year, as he perhaps thinks there may be some bargains coming up.

1722820980162.png

Mick
 
Top