Uranium for me. I like PDN, SMM, AGS, DYL
Most liked posts in thread: Uranium the metal for 2007?
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I only hold three stocks at the moment AGS - SMM - URA 45% held in AGS with the rest split between SMM and URA. Anybody seen the uranium price go backwards in the last 4 years - ain't about to start this year. 2006 the year of building up very good profit reserves _ 2007 the go for it year. One more good year and the boss can go kiss my a--e. I hope it's a great year for all of you. :
I find it a bit confusing - the fact that Johnny Howard says "U is on the table for debate" has an effect on the market - and its 10 years plus before we use any in Aus (if indeed we use any). You need a good telescope to see that far.
Like Nelson, I'm tempted to put my telescope to my blind eye for a few months yet. (BUT I MAY HAVE TO EAT THESE WORDS )
The Economist 8-14 Sep 07 has big cover story, article, and leader, "Nuclear Power's new age". Mostly cautious "A nuclear revival is welcome so long as the industry does not repeat its old mistakes", IN MARCH 1986 this newspaper celebrated “The Charm of Nuclear Power” on its cover. The timing wasn't great. The following month, an accident at a reactor at Chernobyl in Ukraine spread radioactivity over Europe and despair in the Western world's nuclear industry.
Some countries never lost their enthusiasm for nuclear power. It provides three-quarters of French electricity. Developing countries have continued to build nuclear plants apace. But elsewhere in the West, Chernobyl, along with the accident at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania in 1979, sent the industry into a decline. The public got scared. The regulatory environment tightened, raising costs. Billions were spent bailing out lossmaking nuclear-power companies. The industry became a byword for mendacity, secrecy and profligacy with taxpayers' money. For two decades neither governments nor bankers wanted to touch it.
Now nuclear power has a second chance. Its revival is most visible in America (see article), where power companies are preparing to flood the Nuclear Regulatory Commission with applications to build new plants. But the tide seems to be turning in other countries, too. Finland is building a reactor. The British government is preparing the way for new planning regulations. In Australia, which has plenty of uranium but no reactors, the prime minister, John Howard, says nuclear power is “inevitable”.
Managed properly, a nuclear revival could be a good thing. But the industry and the governments keen to promote it look like repeating some of the mistakes that gave it a bad name in the first place.
It's going nuclear's way
Geopolitics, technology (see article), economics and the environment are all changing in nuclear power's favour. Western governments are concerned that most of the world's oil and gas is in the hands of hostile or shaky governments. Much of the nuclear industry's raw material, uranium, by contrast, is conveniently located in friendly places such as Australia and Canada.
Simpler designs cut maintenance and repair costs. Shut-downs are now far less frequent, so that a typical station in America is now online 90% of the time, up from less than 50% in the 1970s. New “passive safety” features can shut a reactor down in an emergency without the need for human intervention. Handling waste may get easier. America plans to embrace a new approach in which the most radioactive portion of the waste from conventional nuclear power stations is isolated and burned in “fast” reactors.
Technology has thus improved nuclear's economics. So has the squeeze on fossil fuels. Nuclear power stations are hugely expensive to build but very cheap to run. Gas-fired power stations””the bulk of new build in the 1980s and 1990s””are the reverse. Since gas provides the extra power needed when demand rises, the gas price sets the electricity price. Costly gas has therefore made existing nuclear plants tremendously profitable.
The latest boost to nuclear has come from climate change. Nuclear power offers the possibility of large quantities of baseload electricity that is cleaner than coal, more secure than gas and more reliable than wind. And if cars switch from oil to electricity, the demand for power generated from carbon-free sources will increase still further. The industry's image is thus turning from black to green.
Nuclear power's moral makeover has divided its enemies. Some environmentalists retain their antipathy to it, but green gurus such as James Lovelock, Stewart Brand and Patrick Moore have changed their minds and embraced it. Public opinion, confused about how best to save the planet, seems to be coming round. A recent British poll showed 30% of the population against nuclear power, compared with 60% three years ago. An American poll in March this year showed 50% in favour of expanding nuclear power, up from 44% in 2001.
Fear of fission
Yet the economics of nuclear still look uncertain. That's partly because its green virtues do not show up in its costs, since fossil-fuel power generation does not pay for the environmental damage it does. But it is also because nuclear combines huge fixed costs with political risk. Companies fear that, after they have invested billions in a plant, the political tide will turn once more and bankrupt them. Investors therefore remain nervous.
How, then, to get new plants built? America's solution is to lard the industry with money. That is the wrong answer.
Nuclear and other clean energy sources do indeed deserve a hand from governments””but through a carbon tax which reflects the benefits of clean energy, not through subsidies to cover political risk. Exposure to public nervousness is a cost of doing business in the nuclear industry, just as exposure to volatile prices is a cost in the gas industry.
It may be that fears of nuclear power are overblown: after all, the UN figure of around 4,000 eventual deaths as a result of the Chernobyl accident is lower than the official annual death-rate in Chinese coal mines. Yet there are good reasons for public concern. Nuclear waste is difficult to dispose of. More civil nuclear technology around the world increases the chance of weapons proliferation. Terrorists could attack plants or steal nuclear fuel. Voters will support nuclear power only if they believe that governments and the nuclear industry are doing their best to limit those risks, and that such risks are small enough to be worth taking in the interests of cheap, clean energy.
One of the reasons why the public turned against nuclear power last time round is that it found itself bailing the industry out. It would be wrong, not just for taxpayers but also for the industry, to set up another lot of cosy deals with governments. The nuclear industry needs to persuade people that it is clean, cheap and safe enough to rely on without a government crutch. If it can't, it doesn't deserve a second chance"
Article here - http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9762843&CFID=13829167&CFTOKEN=21655089
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Have a very sizeable holding in AGS.
Did lots of reading and research into the U companies and decided to go with AGS.
Basically Heathgate/Quasar do not spend $14M on defining a very rich resource unless they plan on fully developing the assett in a time of record U prices (albeit a little volatile at present).
U friendly state of SA
With the current downturn in the world markets AGS are a bargain price, hence all of the bot trading over the last few months (applies to all of the Producers/near producers).
Also the fact that the 'total holding' of the Top20 shareholders has been increasing over the last few months tells me one thing, it's just a matter of being patient and the future will take care of itself. imho dyor
I hold AGS CUL EMR
Above is a link which shows historical U price graph
for those interested (Dutchy3)
A U Enthusiast thinks we hit the bottom a while ago:
Uranium stocks careered sharply higher these last
seven years, but then careened lower since their all-time
highs around 16 Apr 07. Looking back, we suspect that
the real bottom of the decline should have occurred
around July 07, but uraniums were wrenched lower for a
few more weeks by the out-of-control forced selling by
hedge funds desperate to raise cash for their margin calls.
It is nearly impossible to predict the exact bottom day of
a Bottom but, in recent TDLs and IWBs, we guessed at
16 Aug 07. Perhaps by luck, that has been the bottom
day so far. In our experience, this kind of situation
almost always results in violent rallies, which is why we
recommended additional buying of all our uraniums in
our IWBs (Interim Warning Bulletins) near the 16 Aug
07 Bottom Formation. There can be no guarantees, but
the percentages are higher than usual that buying
uranium-mining shares right now is an excellent way to
make serious money over the Intermediate-term,
assuming the Uptrendline (right) remains intact.
Especially since the respected Economist (England)
featured "Nuclear Power’s New Age" on its
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