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Uranium the metal for 2007?

Discussion in 'Commodities' started by moses, Jan 6, 2007.

sentifi.com

Aussie Stock Forum Sentifi Top themes and market attention on:

  1. moses

    moses

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    Zinc for 2006, what next?

    Zinc, Nickel, Gold or Uranium?

    ?
     
  2. Fab

    Fab

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    Uranium for me. I like PDN, SMM, AGS, DYL
     
  3. chicken

    chicken

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    Fab...Check out SMM as a Uranium stock looks as if SMM have indeed got the goods...as soon as mining starts this one will fly.... :2twocents
     
  4. Fab

    Fab

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    Indeed SMM appears to be a good one unfortunately my understanding is their mine are currently in states that are not friendly to U mining. I held SMM for 1 year and sold at $2 to buy instead AGS
     
  5. zed327

    zed327

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    I only hold three stocks at the moment AGS - SMM - URA 45% held in AGS with the rest split between SMM and URA. Anybody seen the uranium price go backwards in the last 4 years - ain't about to start this year. 2006 the year of building up very good profit reserves _ 2007 the go for it year. :) One more good year and the boss can go kiss my a--e. :D I hope it's a great year for all of you. :p:
     
  6. Fab

    Fab

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    You might be right there , I am quite bullish on Uranium too
     
  7. jemma

    jemma

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    Agreed Fab, check our BLR also.

    DYL is my pick to go to one dollar.
     
  8. 2020hindsight

    2020hindsight

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    :2twocents I find it a bit confusing - the fact that Johnny Howard says "U is on the table for debate" has an effect on the market - and its 10 years plus before we use any in Aus (if indeed we use any). You need a good telescope to see that far.
    Like Nelson, I'm tempted to put my telescope to my blind eye for a few months yet. (BUT I MAY HAVE TO EAT THESE WORDS ;))
     
  9. Dutchy3

    Dutchy3

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    Cab Anyone post the spot price charts for all of these ... weekly .. this will provide an insight
     
  10. Fab

    Fab

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    How many nuclear power stations are build in OZ in 10 -15 or 20 years time is almost irrelevant here even if Oz never go nuclear this should not affect the fact that a lot of the world power want or are already powered with nuclear energy. WHat is relevant for Oz is how much U we can sell to the world. The new treaty with China is a good start nevertheless it comes with some big risks
     
  11. Fab

    Fab

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    What is so interesting about BLR
     
  12. drmb

    drmb

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    The Economist 8-14 Sep 07 has big cover story, article, and leader, "Nuclear Power's new age". Mostly cautious "A nuclear revival is welcome so long as the industry does not repeat its old mistakes", IN MARCH 1986 this newspaper celebrated “The Charm of Nuclear Power” on its cover. The timing wasn't great. The following month, an accident at a reactor at Chernobyl in Ukraine spread radioactivity over Europe and despair in the Western world's nuclear industry.

    Some countries never lost their enthusiasm for nuclear power. It provides three-quarters of French electricity. Developing countries have continued to build nuclear plants apace. But elsewhere in the West, Chernobyl, along with the accident at Three Mile Island in Pennsylvania in 1979, sent the industry into a decline. The public got scared. The regulatory environment tightened, raising costs. Billions were spent bailing out lossmaking nuclear-power companies. The industry became a byword for mendacity, secrecy and profligacy with taxpayers' money. For two decades neither governments nor bankers wanted to touch it.


    Now nuclear power has a second chance. Its revival is most visible in America (see article), where power companies are preparing to flood the Nuclear Regulatory Commission with applications to build new plants. But the tide seems to be turning in other countries, too. Finland is building a reactor. The British government is preparing the way for new planning regulations. In Australia, which has plenty of uranium but no reactors, the prime minister, John Howard, says nuclear power is “inevitable”.

    Managed properly, a nuclear revival could be a good thing. But the industry and the governments keen to promote it look like repeating some of the mistakes that gave it a bad name in the first place.

    It's going nuclear's way
    Geopolitics, technology (see article), economics and the environment are all changing in nuclear power's favour. Western governments are concerned that most of the world's oil and gas is in the hands of hostile or shaky governments. Much of the nuclear industry's raw material, uranium, by contrast, is conveniently located in friendly places such as Australia and Canada.

    Simpler designs cut maintenance and repair costs. Shut-downs are now far less frequent, so that a typical station in America is now online 90% of the time, up from less than 50% in the 1970s. New “passive safety” features can shut a reactor down in an emergency without the need for human intervention. Handling waste may get easier. America plans to embrace a new approach in which the most radioactive portion of the waste from conventional nuclear power stations is isolated and burned in “fast” reactors.

    Technology has thus improved nuclear's economics. So has the squeeze on fossil fuels. Nuclear power stations are hugely expensive to build but very cheap to run. Gas-fired power stations””the bulk of new build in the 1980s and 1990s””are the reverse. Since gas provides the extra power needed when demand rises, the gas price sets the electricity price. Costly gas has therefore made existing nuclear plants tremendously profitable.

    The latest boost to nuclear has come from climate change. Nuclear power offers the possibility of large quantities of baseload electricity that is cleaner than coal, more secure than gas and more reliable than wind. And if cars switch from oil to electricity, the demand for power generated from carbon-free sources will increase still further. The industry's image is thus turning from black to green.

    Nuclear power's moral makeover has divided its enemies. Some environmentalists retain their antipathy to it, but green gurus such as James Lovelock, Stewart Brand and Patrick Moore have changed their minds and embraced it. Public opinion, confused about how best to save the planet, seems to be coming round. A recent British poll showed 30% of the population against nuclear power, compared with 60% three years ago. An American poll in March this year showed 50% in favour of expanding nuclear power, up from 44% in 2001.

    Fear of fission
    Yet the economics of nuclear still look uncertain. That's partly because its green virtues do not show up in its costs, since fossil-fuel power generation does not pay for the environmental damage it does. But it is also because nuclear combines huge fixed costs with political risk. Companies fear that, after they have invested billions in a plant, the political tide will turn once more and bankrupt them. Investors therefore remain nervous.

    How, then, to get new plants built? America's solution is to lard the industry with money. That is the wrong answer.

    Nuclear and other clean energy sources do indeed deserve a hand from governments””but through a carbon tax which reflects the benefits of clean energy, not through subsidies to cover political risk. Exposure to public nervousness is a cost of doing business in the nuclear industry, just as exposure to volatile prices is a cost in the gas industry.

    It may be that fears of nuclear power are overblown: after all, the UN figure of around 4,000 eventual deaths as a result of the Chernobyl accident is lower than the official annual death-rate in Chinese coal mines. Yet there are good reasons for public concern. Nuclear waste is difficult to dispose of. More civil nuclear technology around the world increases the chance of weapons proliferation. Terrorists could attack plants or steal nuclear fuel. Voters will support nuclear power only if they believe that governments and the nuclear industry are doing their best to limit those risks, and that such risks are small enough to be worth taking in the interests of cheap, clean energy.

    One of the reasons why the public turned against nuclear power last time round is that it found itself bailing the industry out. It would be wrong, not just for taxpayers but also for the industry, to set up another lot of cosy deals with governments. The nuclear industry needs to persuade people that it is clean, cheap and safe enough to rely on without a government crutch. If it can't, it doesn't deserve a second chance"

    Article here - http://www.economist.com/science/displaystory.cfm?story_id=9762843&CFID=13829167&CFTOKEN=21655089
     

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  13. wllmtrish

    wllmtrish

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    Have a very sizeable holding in AGS.
    Did lots of reading and research into the U companies and decided to go with AGS.
    Basically Heathgate/Quasar do not spend $14M on defining a very rich resource unless they plan on fully developing the assett in a time of record U prices (albeit a little volatile at present).
    U friendly state of SA
    With the current downturn in the world markets AGS are a bargain price, hence all of the bot trading over the last few months (applies to all of the Producers/near producers).
    Also the fact that the 'total holding' of the Top20 shareholders has been increasing over the last few months tells me one thing, it's just a matter of being patient and the future will take care of itself. imho dyor
    I hold AGS CUL EMR
     
  14. wllmtrish

    wllmtrish

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  15. shaunnell

    shaunnell

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    Doing a bit of Uranium research. Noticed that something happened to most stocks in May/Jun that resulted in sp dives. Does anyone have an idea what happened?
    TIA
     
  16. lancer

    lancer

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    yeah they consolidated,corrected then crashed due to hedge funds and others getting scared. Last week was a great rebound on the Toronto exchange for them though, a very good sign.
     
  17. kennas

    kennas Searching

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    I'm suspecting a potential bottom due to some induvidual U stocks I watch making higher lows. Any thoughts? Too early?
     
  18. doctorj

    doctorj Hatchet Moderator

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    BHP is expected to announce an upgrade program at Olympic Dam tomorrow resulting in, amongst other things, a tripling of their Uranium production.
     
  19. lancer

    lancer

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    A U Enthusiast thinks we hit the bottom a while ago:

    Uranium stocks careered sharply higher these last
    seven years, but then careened lower since their all-time
    highs around 16 Apr 07. Looking back, we suspect that
    the real bottom of the decline should have occurred
    around July 07, but uraniums were wrenched lower for a
    few more weeks by the out-of-control forced selling by
    hedge funds desperate to raise cash for their margin calls.
    It is nearly impossible to predict the exact bottom day of
    a Bottom but, in recent TDLs and IWBs, we guessed at
    16 Aug 07. Perhaps by luck, that has been the bottom
    day so far. In our experience, this kind of situation
    almost always results in violent rallies, which is why we
    recommended additional buying of all our uraniums in
    our IWBs (Interim Warning Bulletins) near the 16 Aug
    07 Bottom Formation. There can be no guarantees, but
    the percentages are higher than usual that buying
    uranium-mining shares right now is an excellent way to
    make serious money over the Intermediate-term,
    assuming the Uptrendline (right) remains intact.
    Especially since the respected Economist (England)
    featured "Nuclear Power’s New Age" on its
     
  20. eMark

    eMark

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    Can we have an author to this article, and a possible link? ...and a finish to the article would be great too.

     
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