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TZL - TZ Limited

Sean K

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http://www.marketheadquarters.net

Interview with David Feber just released. He answers all of those questions, and if his prediction of aquiring several % of a $50billion market over the next few years are fulfilled, then we are talking a share price of between $500-$1000. (Personally, I believe he is being conservative)

If you want to accuse anyone of ramping....accuse the CEO!
This link takes me to the Market HQ website, but I can't find the interview. Any clues?

Without actually hearing it, I assume the $50b market is for normal dumb bolts and screws, and not the 'intelligent' ones. I couldn't find the costs of the intelligent fasteners, you need to call the company, but how much more are these things going to cost? I assume quite a deal more. 10 times? 20 times? Interesting that he thinks that several % of industry is going to choose to spend that sort of money for a more efficient lock, or bolt.

Perhaps the $50b market is just in the areas that the technology will be adapted readily, such as aerospace and defence? Looking forward to finding the interview...

Anyone who heard it have an opinion there?

They're winning lots of nice trophies, but they do need to convert that into winning revenue, which I'm sure they will, but how much? Forecasted revenue seems a little vague at the moment. What we do know is that they are currently losing quite a bit of money, which I'm sure this several % of a $50b industry will fix rather quickly.

And, just my 2c on pe's and a comparison with Google. While they are both 'tech', isn't Google an internet company, while this has propriatary technology to make remote control locks and bolts, and furniture? Looks like completely different business models to me. Perhaps we need to find a closer peer in the tech sector to do a fairer comparison.
 
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This link takes me to the Market HQ website, but I can't find the interview. Any clues?

Without actually hearing it, I assume the $50b market is for normal dumb bolts and screws, and not the 'intelligent' ones. I couldn't find the costs of the intelligent fasteners, you need to call the company, but how much more are these things going to cost? I assume quite a deal more. 10 times? 20 times? Interesting that he thinks that several % of industry is going to choose to spend that sort of money for a more efficient lock, or bolt.

Perhaps the $50b market is just in the areas that the technology will be adapted readily, such as aerospace and defence? Looking forward to finding the interview...

Anyone who heard it have an opinion there?

They're winning lots of nice trophies, but they do need to convert that into winning revenue, which I'm sure they will, but how much? Forecasted revenue seems a little vague at the moment. What we do know is that they are currently losing quite a bit of money, which I'm sure this several % of a $50b industry will fix rather quickly.

And, just my 2c on pe's and a comparison with Google. While they are both 'tech', isn't Google an internet company, while this has propriatary technology to make remote control locks and bolts, and furniture? Looks like completely different business models to me. Perhaps we need to find a closer peer in the tech sector to do a fairer comparison.

Thanks for the chart Kennas.

To address your points one by one

1) Without having paid the $4k for Freedonia report:eek:, I assume it is referring to a $50billion market for traditional fastenings. I can't dispute the figure, however, just looking at the numner of fastenings that were used in my house and car, I cannot for the life of me believe a figure of $50billion is anything but conservative.

One thing we have to remember about Intelligent fastening is that it will increase this market value. For example if a plane currently uses 10,000 $1 cast iron fasteners i.e $10k worth, and then TZ come along with Intevia which is twice as expensive ($20k) but reduces weight and increases security and saves maintenance time, then we can see that the market has just increased.

There are many such examples as the above. Dickory Ruddock also patented an intelligent fastening for wine bottles. Surely corks weren't included in the Freedonia report. The benefit of this application is that if used in bars/clubs, it would automatically measure exact servings and also log which bartender served what. Not only does this have security benefits, but can also be developped into an automatic stock management/purchasing system.

Another example is the tool paths required in automobiles to allow mechanics to service vehicles. If the fastenings were automatic, these tool paths would not be required and thereby save car manufacturers cost. These manufacturers would pay more for fastenings if it means a saving of costs in other areas.

The above 3 examples are the premise behind Intevia, when I say that it can change the way we live our lives and therefore increase this $50billion market beyond what us mere mortals thought imaginable.

2) The interview has 'disappeared', but the link to it still appears in TZ's website which is very strange. It isn't the first strange thing I have seen with TZ. Maybe because it wan't announced to the market?

3) Cash: TZ raised $24million and have just had the redemption of DKR's convertible notes underwritten. For a 'shot in the dark' company to raise these kind of funds when other companies are having trouble finding funding, really gives us a clue as to what the funders found when they did their DD.

Yes TZ are spending money. As they have stated when the funds were received from QVT, that it will be used to commercialize Intevia. From next month, when the Larson Doors shipment is made, we can expect TZ to be cashflow positive.

4) Business models. I only used Google as a NASDAQ example. There are smaller companies with p/es in the hundreds and bigger (Microsoft) with p/es in the 'teens. It is very difficult to find a comparison to TZ as it is a disruptive technology. The closest I have found is First Solar (FSLR) which has gone from a $1.5billion company to $20 billion (p/e 180) company in 18 months. This is based on the revolutionary thin film solar technology. However, even they have competitors. TZ do not.

The bottom line, is that TZ's technology has to be worth more than the $4.60 which it is trading at. Intevia is a great Australian invention which is unfortunately appreciated by the Oz market.
 
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Interesting discussion above, and yes, let's continue to be civil. :)

I note the $15, 12 mth valuation been put on it as a 'strong speculative buy' by some US analyst.

This is a good point Kennas. $15 valuation by a company, is alot less than $1000. I'd say there has been some very different assumptions made.
I have always maintained that I think the potential for this company is great. But alot of its prospects are speculative.

Pommie, I was under the impression that intevia products will be alot more expensive than an average bolt. Can you clarify the expect price?
 
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This is a good point Kennas. $15 valuation by a company, is alot less than $1000. I'd say there has been some very different assumptions made.
I have always maintained that I think the potential for this company is great. But alot of its prospects are speculative.

Pommie, I was under the impression that intevia products will be alot more expensive than an average bolt. Can you clarify the expect price?

Eddyl...you may have noted that Kennas quoted a $15 12 month target. 'My' target was based on DF's % market capture estimate in several years.

Intevia won't replace ALL nuts and bolts. I've got no idea as to what they will sell at in quantity. Some of the fasteners are currently available as demonstrations for $100-$1000. Obviously in quantity, they will be much much cheaper.

The nickel/titanium alloy is much stronger than traditional fastenings and has been tested as having a much longer life, as well as having the other benefits which I have mentioned.
 
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The price was available some time ago on their website. It ranges from $155-$250 price range I think, for the system. Pommie?

While I think it is overly bullish to expect a $700 SP I still am very bullish on TZ. However I have seem many brilliant patents fail because the company/individual has failed to convert the fundamentals into a commercially viable business. Any number of things can go wrong, speculation is for newbies.

That said, all one can do is punt based on the fundamentals. While TZ is losing money now, it could make alot more money in the future. That is why we are all here. The various applications of Intevia seem highly beneficial. Going back to pommies point on the bartending patent; i have a little insight into this industry.

The bar I work at currently is a big place. We pour alot of premium drinks, into egg cups (a term used for 30ml measure.) We have a stock variance of about $2000 a week. That's $50,000 a year which is not including the price mark up to the customer. Works out at about $100,000 a year. If intevia products could reduce that stock variance, similar to the electronic system of pouring shots but more discreet, then that industry alone is enough to make intevia profitable.

However that is the idea and the idea only. TZ hardly has the manpower to focus on all potential fastening industries at once... That is why I still remain highly cautious with my money. :2twocents

PS: I bet you my friend and I could hack intevia products at the moment, would hate to see all the windows and panels in your superyacht to all come unstack simulataneously.... That is one of my main concerns also and something that was pointed out by my friend.
 
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The price was available some time ago on their website. It ranges from $155-$250 price range I think, for the system. Pommie?

While I think it is overly bullish to expect a $700 SP I still am very bullish on TZ. However I have seem many brilliant patents fail because the company/individual has failed to convert the fundamentals into a commercially viable business. Any number of things can go wrong, speculation is for newbies.

That said, all one can do is punt based on the fundamentals. While TZ is losing money now, it could make alot more money in the future. That is why we are all here. The various applications of Intevia seem highly beneficial. Going back to pommies point on the bartending patent; i have a little insight into this industry.

The bar I work at currently is a big place. We pour alot of premium drinks, into egg cups (a term used for 30ml measure.) We have a stock variance of about $2000 a week. That's $50,000 a year which is not including the price mark up to the customer. Works out at about $100,000 a year. If intevia products could reduce that stock variance, similar to the electronic system of pouring shots but more discreet, then that industry alone is enough to make intevia profitable.

However that is the idea and the idea only. TZ hardly has the manpower to focus on all potential fastening industries at once... That is why I still remain highly cautious with my money. :2twocents

PS: I bet you my friend and I could hack intevia products at the moment, would hate to see all the windows and panels in your superyacht to all come unstack simulataneously.... That is one of my main concerns also and something that was pointed out by my friend.

I would assume that for those applications where security is paramount, TZ would have taken care of this. Afterall, they have been developing their products over a number of years.

Regarding Intevia's application in yachts, I don't believe it will be the kind of application where one could access locking and unlocking from the other side of the world. Maybe your friend could access the service logs, but what would he do with them?

On that subject, would you or your friend could hack into my ASF account and post something on here prove your claim?

"TZ hardly has the manpower to focus on all potential fastening industries at once... That is why I still remain highly cautious with my money"

Hate to use the 'R' word again..but TZ have stated on numerous occasions as to which applications they are focusing on and when.

They have also stated where the manpower is coming from. 10 points is you can tell me which announcement that was in.
 
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I have done my research and know which industries they plan to focus on. My point merely was, that what makes this technology so exciting and universal, cannot be implemented right away and across the board. That has to be factored into the SP. And without proper implementation it is easy to see an idea like this flounder.

Pommie while you seem extremely confident in this stock surely you can understand the risks involved? Best laid plans of mice and men often go awry...

My hope is to see this stock grow. But I am aware and consenting to the risks. No amount of research will foresee the future, we are all taking a punt... a very educated punt albeit.

PS: I am not going to engage in illegal activity in order to prove a claim. Aussie stock forums runs of a typical phpp forum setup, retrieval of password by hacking into your email is easy enough, or a straight out stealing of your password. I could upload a trojan to your computer through an analyst chart. etc. Point is anything on the internet is hackable, that includes online banking. Whether it becomes a reality is pointless speculation, it represents merely another risk.
 
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DF's interview is now available for download for those with the bandwith. Why a 12 minute MP3 interview has to be 22MB, I don't know.

http://www.tz.net/audio/080605_marketheadquarters.mp3

Thanks for digging up the link.

It was getting towards the end and I as worried that there was no mention of the NASDA listing but was reassured to hear of it in the last minute or so.:)

Great story and huge potential for the long term holder.:D
 
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Of course there are risks to everything in life, not just investments. However, really all we can do is try to get the risk/reward ratio to suit each of us.

As TZ are already in production, the risk is minimized. This is not reflected in the market cap. Nor is the potential upside.

I have already posted before that in the resource sector, a stock which is starting to produce from a massive resource would be rated much more highly than a company still engaging in exploration, aquiring JORC status, prefeasibility studies, bank feasibility studies etc etc.

In the resource sector their are even risks to a company in production ie price of metals due to supply/demand/competition, capital expenditure, operational costs. There is a very long lead time to production in resource, by which time who knows whether it would even be viable to extract the ore. Then there are also economic factors.

Although TZ has risks like what you have mentioned, I really do believe that they are now minimal. TZ's second generation of Intevia fasteners have been tested and now developed for specific applications through JVs with the customers. Larson Doors wouldn't have signed a purchase order otherwise. Of course a purchase order is not a legally binding contract, so I guess they could pull the plug, but these kind of risks are everywhere in the business world.

I prefer to have faith with a company which has spent the best part of 10 years developing and bringing their business plan (I admit it has changed over the years) to fruition.

You say that this technology cannot be implemented right away and across the board. I say to you that it already has been implemented in some sectors, and will be across the board as soon as management can scale up operations. We also have to bear in mind that some applications have a design and test cycle of 3 years (eg aerospace).

It seems as though you have invested for the same reasons as I, which is good to hear. So many people really underestimate the potential of this technology and live in a 'too good to be true world'.

I can put my hand on my heart and say, that throughout these turbulent times, I can sleep easy with my investment in TZ. This certainly wasn't the case when I was holding resource stocks.

Here's a reminder of what TZ had to say about the launch of Intevia Enterprise (It would be interesting to hear your thoughts about the security issues as you seem to be more IT literate than I):

Data Center Security

The Company reached a major milestone with the launch of a significant new

product platform, Intevia
® Enterprise, at the AFCOM Data Center World Expo in

Las Vegas. The unprecedented new suite of products is uniquely positioned to
capture a several hundred million dollar addressable market in the IT industry.
Intevia


® Enterprise enables physical security and remote monitoring of datacenter

components effectively addressing widely recognized security concerns of data
center managers. The products have a relatively short implementation time-tomarket
and the Directors believe the new product platform represents a significant
commercial opportunity for the Company.



..and what Duttons associates had to say about the addressable market:



TZ Introduces Intevia Enterprise, a New Data Center Application for its Intelligent Fasteners, at the AFCOM Expo in Las Vegas
This Week; Significant Increase In TZ's Addressable Market; Maintain Strong Speculative Buy Rating.


The Intevia division of TZ will introduce a new application of its intelligent fastener system for use in Data Centers at the AFCOM Expo
in Las Vegas this week. The design was a collaboration of TZ's Intevia, Product Design Technology, and Future Wall divisions. AFCOM
is an association dedicated to providing education and resources for data center managers. Its goal is to enable data center
management professionals to share industry best practices by providing a forum for dissemination of critical information.
The TZ application will address homeland security demands for increased security in data centers. Typically, the only security within a
data center is at the entrance, and perhaps at a dedicated chain-link enclosure within the data center. However, many equipment racks
are shared by different organizations. There are many stories of maintenance personal leaving data centers and driving 15 miles before
remembering that they had forgotten to lock the door behind them.
The TZ system introduces 2 radial fasteners to lock a server, storage unit or power supply into an equipment rack. The door to the
equipment rack is also secured with 2 more Intevia fasteners. Depending on the height of a specific server or blade (2-4 inches), there
could be as many as 24 units per 6 foot rack, including a power supply and provisions for external storage capacity.
The server market in 2007 grew about 7.5% to about 8.8 million units (Gartner in Digitimes). Typically, a server has a 4 year life, so one
estimate of the installed base is 36 million units, or a potential retrofit market for Intevia fasteners of 72 million units for potential server
applications only. Add another 12 million fasteners for cabinet doors.
Other market sized data to consider (2007) are the estimated 515 million hard disk drives shipped (iSupply in DigiTimes), and an
external disk storage system market of $4.4 billion (IBM in DigiTimes).
Intevia will exhibit a mock-up of a data center room at AFCOM, and will feature active monitoring of two remote data centers in Australia
and Amsterdam from Las Vegas - centralized or remote control for global enterprises.
Regarding other applications, data centers separate data wires from electric wires - electric wires run underneath raised floors. Floor
panels are held in place by either gravity, or one or two screws. The TZ product makes the sub-floor space more secure.
Since the Intevia system is networked via its ASIC, a sensor can be easily attached and geared to transmit data to a distant location.
Energy management and temperature are critical environmental variables in the data center. If temperature moves beyond specified
operating parameters, servers can malfunction. Intevia has developed a temperature sensing application which can be harnessed to
provide great granularity - temperature at a specific unit. A central monitoring station can alert maintenance personal of impending
problems and have them corrected before costly operating problems arise. Lighting and can also be controlled as part of total energy
management.
This opportunity for TZ is large. As this is a new application that we have not previously considered, we will monitor closely for initial
volume orders and increase our estimates accordingly. We maintain our Strong Speculative Buy.
 
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From my experience within IT, I would say that most large organisations do not share datacentres. Infact I had never heard of this practice until you posted that article. For the simple reason that data is often the competitive advatange seperating companies, and utmost care is used in preserving it.
Similarly the temperature of the whole room is usually the only concern. You would not need to drill down to individual unit levels. From being in a data centre many times, they are really cold places. Huge cooling vents are used to keep the entire room cool, because the company has an interest in more than just one server.
I am slightly skeptical of the duttons report. I agree flixington, Pommie, seem extremely confident in TZL to the point where I Am slightly astounded.
 
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Similarly the temperature of the whole room is usually the only concern. You would not need to drill down to individual unit levels. From being in a data centre many times, they are really cold places. Huge cooling vents are used to keep the entire room cool, because the company has an interest in more than just one server.

We're getting OT here, but indivdual temperatures are important. Densely populated racks can get very hot regardless of room temperature. Certainly at the datacentre I work in, we monitor down to individual server/core temperatures.
 
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We're getting OT here, but indivdual temperatures are important. Densely populated racks can get very hot regardless of room temperature. Certainly at the datacentre I work in, we monitor down to individual server/core temperatures.

DionM, thanks for correcting Eddyl. I'm sure he'll be back with some other spurious claim.

Seeing you are in the industry, (and not somebody who's been on a school trip to a data centre), it would be interesting to know your thoughts on Intevia Enterprise's and what they are trying to achieve.
 
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DionM, thanks for correcting Eddyl. I'm sure he'll be back with some other spurious claim.

Seeing you are in the industry, (and not somebody who's been on a school trip to a data centre), it would be interesting to know your thoughts on Intevia Enterprise's and what they are trying to achieve.

Fair enough Dion. The data centre's I've worked in have. Dion does the data centre you work in relate to just on organisation? Because, if this is the case it seems to negate alot of the security benefits intevia offers.

This is probably the more pertinent point, because like Dion has pointed out it is possible to monitor the temperature of a server down to the unit. This has been around for years to my knowledge.
 
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Its all in TZ's announcement to the market on 31March.


TZ TO LAUNCH INTEVIA
® ENTERPRISE AT

DATA CENTER WORLD EXPO


A “first of type” platform technology for improving data center security,

energy efficiency and remote monitoring



Based on TZ’s award-winning Intevia ® technology



Exhibit at Las Vegas Convention Center, Booth 652

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS, USA – 31 March 2008


– Telezygology Inc. will be launching at

AFCOM’s Data Center World ® 2008 Spring Expo in Las Vegas, April 1 and 2, its
breakthrough platform technology. This connectivity technology from TZ is named
Intevia


® Enterprise
and consists of communication gateways, client, database and

application software, remotely-controlled sensing, monitoring, intelligent locking and
fastening devices that extend the reach of traditional network and access control systems.
For the first time, networking and security management systems can reach in beyond the
server room door to control server and equipment racks integrating task lighting and
localized air flow, walls, equipment shelves, raised floor tiles trouble lights and local air
boost fans, access and inspection panels, spare part storage and instrument/tool cabinets.
Intevia ® Enterprise is an integrated management system for physical security,
environmental monitoring and energy control at the component and device level that can
be scaled from a single server room to global deployments that can easily be integrated
into traditional network, access control and facilities management software offerings.
TZ’s booth exhibit will be linked to data centers and servers in Amsterdam and Australia to
show in real time, a demonstration of the capabilities of the management of security as
well as the energy reduction realized with the Intevia ® Enterprise at a granular, never seen
before level.
In addition to data centers, the Intevia ® Enterprise platform technology can be integrated
into offices, hospitals, homes, airports, server farms and any environment which requires
physical security sensing and control beyond the macro level. Intevia ® technology will now
be able to control and connect any device or building element through the Internet.
ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
-


2-

Deployment of Intevia


® Enterprise will substantially increase physical security across all

architecture which typically is confined to only the perimeter of the building; physical
security can now be extended to all access and connectivity points, from the architectural
components of the building – ceilings, walls, doors service ducts and floor tiles down to
smallest device hardware like the computer racking components such as doors, side
panels drawers blades and cables.
Energy consumption of the total building will be reduced dramatically through the
distribution of networked sensors at a much finer granulation than previously possible. The
technology provides the ability to discreetly monitor lighting/temperature at the device and
respond to locally programmed parameters such as cooling and task lighting, all controlled
and monitored remotely via the Internet using facility management software.
Intevia ® Enterprise will become the first truly ubiquitous physical security and
environmental control system.
The Intevia ® Web site will host a video stream so individuals may observe this new
technology as it is operating in the TZ exhibit at the AFCOM event by logging on to
intevia.com on Tuesday, April 1, 2008 at 4:00 pm PDT (Las Vegas) or 10:00 am Australia
time (Wednesday, April 2, 2008).
AFCOM is the leading association supporting the data center industry and the Data Center
World ® Conference and Exhibition is the premier educational resource for data center
professionals. The Data Center World ® event has welcomed 1,000+ professionals and
experts associated with hundreds of data centers from some of the biggest corporations,
non-profit organizations and academic institutions in the country.
“This is a great venue to launch Intevia ® Enterprise and showcase the never-before-seen
capabilities,” said TZ Group CEO David Feber. “AFCOM is one of the most respected
authorities in the data center industry and the Data Center World ® expo provides
information on the latest, innovative technology for data center management and security.
Intevia ® Enterprise is bound to capture the attention of the highly targeted audience in/FONT]
attendance.”

 

prawn_86

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Newbie question, if I buy TZL shares now, and then they list in America later on, what happens to my shares?

read back through the thread, to save others having to repeat themselves. :)

About 4 - 5 pages back if i remember correctly
 
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Fair enough Dion. The data centre's I've worked in have. Dion does the data centre you work in relate to just on organisation? Because, if this is the case it seems to negate alot of the security benefits intevia offers.

The DC is purely for our organisation - it's an inhouse one. Having said that, security is very important - the list of people who have access is still (unfortunately) very long (different business units). We can't have a DC for different BUs, but even then, there are the a/c contractors and cleaners who need access anyway. So security of racks/servers is important. We have stuff like door alarms and port monitoring (both ethernet and power points) but anyting extra is always useful.

This is probably the more pertinent point, because like Dion has pointed out it is possible to monitor the temperature of a server down to the unit. This has been around for years to my knowledge.

Yup, SNMP.
 
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To be completely honest with you, if TZL can break into just a couple of target industries, they'll be worth their weight in gold!

I like the idea of the bus seatbelts, and I think every Australian school bus should invest in their technology. Bus drivers can check from the console that child seat belts are secure (just as the hosties will be able to check the same in planes). Our kids deserve this!
 
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