Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

12 October 2015
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The monetary policy committee meeting held next Tuesday, January 24, we anticipate that the CBRT [Turkey's central bank] will hike the benchmark one-week repo rate by 50 basis points to 8.5%, and hike the overnight lending rate by 100 basis points to 9.5%. It is likely that the central bank will want to expand and lift its interest rates corridor, particularly at the top-end, to retain more flexibility

At the close of 2016, Turkey's economy contracted by 1.8% per Q3 GDP figures, while the Turkish lira has lost more than a fifth of its value since September. This devaluation is attributed to mounting political risks following the attempted military coup, as well as increased interest rates and US dollar buoyed by the prospects of an expansionist fiscal policy under Trump.

Such incidents have already adversely impacted Turkey's tourism industry, which contracted by as much as 40% in the summer of 2016. Worsening conditions are likely to continue into 2017, which could strain Turkey's fragile regional and domestic stability.

Technical analysis update:

broke down 3.73-4 area will send the Turkish lira to cope with 3.63+_ price zone while keeping stay above those levels, and break up again the last records on 3.94 will send the Turkish lira to 4.11 price