Trump Era 2025-2029 : Stock and Economic Comment

[Garpal Gumnut]

I must admit that I take a contrarian view to many recent posters. Trump will rein in most overseas countries who were taking advantage of the US consumer by selling goods at unrealistically low prices. The agreement with Vietnam for a 20% tariff with 40% for goods transhipped is typical of the deals he has made and will make with countries in to the future. Some like the UK and Australia will get better deals than others such as China but to say that the US will go back and the rest of the world go forward after tariffs is to ignore the reliance each has on the other. I've spent some hours this afternoon on international and US media to get an up to date feel for the US markets in which I'm invested and I would say that barring any big upsets e.g war for Taiwan, the US indices will go up for the rest of this year.

gg

 

[divs4ever]

I must admit that I take a contrarian view to many recent posters. Trump will rein in most overseas countries who were taking advantage of the US consumer by selling goods at unrealistically low prices. The agreement with Vietnam for a 20% tariff with 40% for goods transhipped is typical of the deals he has made and will make with countries in to the future. Some like the UK and Australia will get better deals than others such as China but to say that the US will go back and the rest of the world go forward after tariffs is to ignore the reliance each has on the other. I've spent some hours this afternoon on international and US media to get an up to date feel for the US markets in which I'm invested and I would say that barring any big upsets e.g war for Taiwan, the US indices will go up for the rest of this year.

gg

if they don't like the Trump tariffs they should simply sell elsewhere there are more than 3 billion people who do NOT live in the US

if the US residents still what a products they can either produce it themselves or travel overseas to buy it , the lack of goods for sale in the US on Amazon will quickly change the thinking

AND you don't run the risk of your US dollars being freezed or seized

Trump can do what he likes , but we can sell wherever we choose ( you know to those 'sanctioned nations ' who are just happy to trade )

 

[Knobby22]

The Big Beautiful Bill has passed.
I believe they got rid of some of the foreign capital taxes originallyin the bill. Are there any other effects to us as Australians we should know?

 

[over9k]

Assuming this fiscal idiocy continues I'd say we (the west, not just usa) have until about 2030 before something bloody ugly happens.

Which would just happen to coincide with being exactly 100 years since the last great depression started, if you take my drift.

 

[Antirnator]

The growth of the US economy has always been its key to success. As long as it grows fast enough the debt will reduce. They have dealt with the trade deficit and turned it into a surplus in 5 months. So let's see if the same will happen for the domestic economy.

How will it affect Australia? A strong US economy is good for everyone. Our current government is more interested the CCP and growing our bureaucracy rather than positioning itself to participate in the US success.

We are in a recession and heading towards a depression. Our debt is growing and our economy is shrinking. I feel like I am back in the 1980s. There is no Paul Keating or John Howard on the horizon.

Welcome to Australia this our shop Boondoggles-r-us.

 

[Knobby22]

The growth of the US economy has always been its key to success. As long as it grows fast enough the debt will reduce. They have dealt with the trade deficit and turned it into a surplus in 5 months. So let's see if the same will happen for the domestic economy.

How will it affect Australia? A strong US economy is good for everyone. Our current government is more interested the CCP and growing our bureaucracy rather than positioning itself to participate in the US success.

We are in a recession and heading towards a depression. Our debt is growing and our economy is shrinking. I feel like I am back in the 1980s. There is no Paul Keating or John Howard on the horizon.

Welcome to Australia this our shop Boondoggles-r-us.

We aren't the ones going into stupid levels of debt.

i don't why everyone has to bag Australia so much in a USA thread.

 

[divs4ever]

We aren't the ones going into stupid levels of debt.

i don't why everyone has to bag Australia so much in a USA thread.

bagging or trying to warn Australia against blindly following the debt-flinging pig down the crap-littered road to destitution ( while there are options still available )

but do we really know how much debt we have , we have pledged to buy a number of submarines ( twice as many as we have crews for ) , giving away antique tanks so we can buy more , and don't forget those F-35 fighters

chances are our debt obligations is at least double what is generally known

it is quite obvious that the US ( and EU ) have no fiscal restraint , do we want to rush onto that stinking ship ( like the UK is )

look at all the dumb wars we have followed the debt-flinging pig into , Korea , Vietnam , Afghanistan , Iraq ... how many more ?

 

[divs4ever]

The growth of the US economy has always been its key to success. As long as it grows fast enough the debt will reduce. They have dealt with the trade deficit and turned it into a surplus in 5 months. So let's see if the same will happen for the domestic economy.

How will it affect Australia? A strong US economy is good for everyone. Our current government is more interested the CCP and growing our bureaucracy rather than positioning itself to participate in the US success.

We are in a recession and heading towards a depression. Our debt is growing and our economy is shrinking. I feel like I am back in the 1980s. There is no Paul Keating or John Howard on the horizon.

Welcome to Australia this our shop Boondoggles-r-us.

but is that shrinking economy and growing debt in isolation ( i suspect not ) but maybe we are just more honest about it ( but less so than NZ on the honesty bit )

 

[Antirnator]

but is that shrinking economy and growing debt in isolation ( i suspect not ) but maybe we are just more honest about it ( but less so than NZ on the honesty bit )

I zipped my mouth for a reason. I could write a list but that would be pointless so I stopped.

Australia seems to be frozen out of engaging with the US at the moment. Until there is some honesty in that department then maybe it can be fixed.

Back to the topic at hand. Let's wait and see if the US economy does its normal thing and grows twice or three times as fast as the rest of the world. If it doesn't then we will know the Big Beautiful bill failed and everybody can celebrate

 

[Smurf1976]

We aren't the ones going into stupid levels of debt.

i don't why everyone has to bag Australia so much in a USA thread.

We're not in such extreme debt at present but the trajectory we're on means it's only a matter of time.

It's the equivalent of telling someone they'd better change their ways ASAP whilst pointing to an example of someone else who did exactly the same thing and is now fighting to stay alive because of it. Stop doing what you're doing, or this is how you'll end up.

 

[over9k]

big beautiful bill passes

 

[qldfrog]

big beautiful bill passes

Disappointed anyway as i am not a TDS affected person, and tend to share Musk views on this

 

[farmerge]

big beautiful bill passes

@over9k Time will tell how suffering in the US this so called "Big, Beautiful Bill" will impact on the general population and more than probably on the lower end of the economic scale.

 

[TimeISmoney]

@over9k Time will tell how suffering in the US this so called "Big, Beautiful Bill" will impact on the general population and more than probably on the lower end of the economic scale.

The tax cuts will cause inflation, it's like selling a medicine for a cough that can never be cured.

I don't think the guy can lie straight in bed. Had to laugh when he started sprouting on about the Chinese made windmills and China doesn't have wind farms.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

The tax cuts will cause inflation..

“Big beautiful bill” to trigger most explosive inflation surge in 50 years?​

• Published on 04 July 2025
• By Sharecafe Team

market mocha

New policies combining spending and tariffs may trigger major price increases
Donald Trump’s so-called ‘Big Beautiful Bill’ combining unprecedented levels of federal spending with sweeping new tariffs is set to reignite inflation on a global scale, according to the chief executive of one of the world’s largest independent financial advisory and asset management organizations.

Nigel Green of deVere Group warns that the combined impact of these policies could make the legislation “the most inflationary economic act in over half a century.”
“This bill throws open the taps on spending while throttling the flow of global goods. It’s a high-stakes gamble with inflation—and one that the rest of the world will end up paying for.”

The bill, which authorises more than $1 trillion in additional spending alongside a dramatic hike in import tariffs, is already being described by investors as a potential turning point in the fight against inflation. Economists note that even during wartime and pandemic stimulus, no modern US administration has simultaneously pursued this scale of deficit expansion and supply suppression.
The tariffs affect over 500 categories of imports, from clean tech to electronics to basic industrial components.
Early estimates suggest the effective tariff rate on Chinese goods alone could rise from 8% to 17.5%, a move that will inevitably raise costs for manufacturers and consumers alike.
“What concerns us most is that this isn’t just another short-term fiscal boost. It’s a permanent reordering of the trade and spending model,” Nigel Green notes. “That makes it far more dangerous—and far more difficult to unwind once inflation accelerates.”
He adds that the fallout will stretch far beyond the US.
“When the US imports inflation, other economies catch it too. Emerging markets suffer from currency instability. Europe gets higher energy and input prices. And global investors start demanding a premium to hold government debt.”

Markets have already begun to respond. Long-term yields are creeping up. Oil has moved higher. Gold and Bitcoin are rising on renewed fears about the erosion of purchasing power. Meanwhile, central banks that had expected to cut rates this year are now being forced to reassess.

“The Fed is cornered. Rate cuts now look premature. If anything, this bill could push them to tighten policy again—right at the point the economy can least afford it,” says Green.
He warns that investors are underestimating the ripple effects.
“This isn’t business as usual. This is the return of long-term inflation risk—and the pricing of assets, currencies, and portfolios needs to adjust to that reality immediately.”
He argues that the political motivation behind the bill adds further concern.
“When economic policy becomes an election-year weapon, there’s rarely any incentive to think about consequences. This isn’t about markets or macro stability, it’s about headline wins. And that’s when serious mistakes get made.”
While some policymakers have defended the measures as necessary to rebuild domestic manufacturing and reduce dependence on global supply chains, Nigel Green says the cost of such an approach is being dangerously downplayed.
“You can’t decouple from global trade without triggering price shocks. You can’t print and spend your way into competitiveness; and you can’t load the economy with stimulus and tariffs at the same time without blowing a hole in inflation expectations.”
He concludes: “This bill will be remembered as a turning point. Just not for the reasons its architects think. It likely marks the start of a new inflation cycle, one that investors must now build into decision-making.”

 

[DannyB0000]

Only time will tell how the US economy goes in the medium to long term. I'm actually hoping Trump's policies will work for their economy and the stock market doesn't implode, somebody in Trump's administration can talk some sense into him and he does listen without firing them. I'm using shares to boost my super balance and my retirement dreams so I hope things don't go pear shaped with the US economy and the stock market.

If US inflation starts to spike much higher and the FED starts hiking interest rates again, I would have to reluctantly dump my whole portfolio and go 100% to cash to protect my money, but hopefully not, fingers crossed

 

[Dora Kent]

Stimulus -> inflation -> higher US interest rates -> higher USD -> declining exports

 

[qldfrog]

Only time will tell how the US economy goes in the medium to long term. I'm actually hoping Trump's policies will work for their economy and the stock market doesn't implode, somebody in Trump's administration can talk some sense into him and he does listen without firing them. I'm using shares to boost my super balance and my retirement dreams so I hope things don't go pear shaped with the US economy and the stock market.

If US inflation starts to spike much higher and the FED starts hiking interest rates again, I would have to reluctantly dump my whole portfolio and go 100% to cash to protect my money, but hopefully not, fingers crossed

Go 100% if inflation strikes?
A new economy theory for me.
Seriously, why would you do that?
Inflation is part of the initial Trump plan,go back to my firdt posts here and links
Inflation is the only way to get rid of the debt unless you prefer WWIII or default?
Take your pick but kicking the can is not possible
So invest accordingly, and stop relying on TDS media.
It could be an opportunity for investors

 

[qldfrog]

Stimulus -> inflation -> higher US interest rates -> higher USD -> declining exports

Trump plan if he can do it, is:
Stimulus -> inflation but lower US interest rates -> lower USD -> declining imports AND more US jobs
Will the Fed let him do it...

 

[Dona Ferentes]

If US inflation starts to spike much higher and the FED starts hiking interest rates again, I would have to reluctantly dump my whole portfolio and go 100% to cash to protect my money,

real assets should rise

but for cash, inflation erodes the value of money by reducing its purchasing power, meaning you can buy less with the same amount of money over time. This is because the general price level of goods and services increases during inflationary periods. Essentially, if prices rise faster than your income, your money won't stretch as far.