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Top of this cycle for ASX 200, cash is king?

Discussion in 'Business, Investment and Economics' started by kahuna1, Jan 3, 2019.

  1. kahuna1

    kahuna1

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    Oh well ... times change and times are the same.

    Same stuff new thread, the old one is locked, I have been ... busy.

    Will periodically update some stuff.

    Merry Christmas and happy 2019. My very very large brain is hurting .... OH and that's something I have issues with even repeating !! The world changes and spins, and things remain the same. THE amount of pure NOISE and BS is deafening and the older I get, I actually know and accept how LITTLE know or even thought I did. I knew it all aged 18 in 1982 and now, well 36 years latter accept with grace, how little I knew then and even now.

    Over the years, with the help of some very patient and smart people, none of which rubbed off on me !! I have become, well GREY .... hahaha ... but more and more accepting of the world. I can and have over the years spoken of many many many .... sshiiit I am sounding like that D grade reality show guy, the B grade Movie actor known as Regan was in power and Greenspan was about to get his reward for the Greenspan commission that on one hand CORRECTLY predicted they needed to save a lot more in the USA and massively raised Social Security taxes, Only to have Regan give THE BIGGEST tax cut ever around 3% of GDP ... then again some dope claimed his tax cut of late was the biggest at 0.9% of GDP.

    As some, who have followed, on various places, since 1998, 5,000 or so posts, on various things, NOT shares alone but the things THAT make things go UP and down, some sites on demographics and advanced modelling and even one of the worlds largest Mental health sites for people dealing with people with SERIOUS ILLNESS and those being sociopaths or Psychopaths or the more common flavors of it Borderline Personality Disorder and Narcissistic Personality Disorder and so on. It is relevant to markets, and economics and VERY much so in this day and age. I was made a bloody ambassador to one of the sites for my community service and counseling VICTIMS, not those with it, as always its the people HURT who seek help !! Those afflicted, have little or no conscience, no remorse and NO REGRETS, no shame and actually a common trait in most of them is to rewrite history.

    I could go on, and an ability to SWITCH one attack to another, maximizing something, say a fault and MINIMIZING another and throwing an accusation in and seamlessly switching from lying to I hate you, then I love you, OH I want to kill you, and all the time gaslighting your very soul, chipping away and leaving you with NO idea who or what you are. Oh lots of tactics and as a counselor and .... well bugger me ... an ambassador, the strange and FUNNY to someone cured and well past the pain and helping others is the language and tactics and even words are IDENTICAL at times despite say helping someone in say the UK or someone from Sweden or NZ.

    Oh and the favorite tools, are bringing a machine gun to a fist fight , or recently it was nuclear bombs to a discussion that went from I hate you to I love you and your my bestie !!! Second is the old accuse the pother person of something that ... YOUR DOING ... they are on the defensive, and if they defend you with NO conscience or compassion or anything rip them to SHREDS.

    YOU CANNOT .... EVER ... win a discussion, argument or even present logic to these types, then again to followers of faith, or paid PR types or delusional ... same thing. Oh have I had some funny economic discussions over the years.

    There is of COURSE no excuse for violence and NONE whatsoever for it, or abuse, or hidden abuse. It leads to the abused eventually becoming CO- Dependent and suffering abuse syndrome and PTSD and even Stockholm syndrome. One wonder WHY an abused person and YEP guilty stays in abusive relationship ? Some its physical, some its extreme verbal and cruelty and so on and so forth. Some it kindness, some compassion and being given a choice to believe someone is the poor innocent one, is my sins among others, in extreme and prolonged cases, even short ones, wishing for even a pause, and they become briefer and briefer as they cycle from I love you I hate you ....

    just some rules for this .... of COURSE ... BOUNDARIES are the only solution and like expert sneaks, they nibble away at defenses and eventually ... you end up as accepting things, it you still had your right mind you never would !! NOT IN A PINK fit .... Oh I am sorry I spat in your food you just ate, will you be coming back to dinner ? Or I just put a whopping tariff on your goods, will you still be buying goods from my country ?

    ASK APPLE .... Today about that. The Chinese actually with their NEW social points system COULD have added massive negative points to buying USA made goods, THEY DIDN'T need to because the Media in China is with cause tearing USA and its game to shreds.

    Easy prediction is that the USA brand name is, well forever damaged by these antics.

    Free trade of course NEVER EVER works without rules. But instead of, well, enforcing the rules, the agreements went out the window in a populist wave and hey presto, fines.

    Sure most will have views on this but Apple pays NO tax anywhere and even when they do get caught up with, they slip down another hole. So too the rest of the bunch.

    Australia in 2020 is about to get a surplus, without ... WITHOUT ... the 15 billion collected from evasions, this NEVER would have occurred. Basically enough to build and fund 5 very large regional hospitals here and FUND THEM FOR 10 years !!

    We I might add had to BEG .... BEG not to be included in this tariff wave and EU and Canada along with China lock horns still. Mexico, went well .... whatever .... why ? Its trade balance is TWO WAY and BALANCED and whilst China I am not suggesting has been closed to investment and trade, is, what it is. Either you wanted goods made at $2- an hour labor costs or $20-.

    Back to abuse stuff ...
    World is suffering PTSD and at best Stockholm syndrome .... Economically.
    Not a prediction, sadly a fact. Let me distract you, accuse you, then send in the likes of Apple and Google and Goldman Sachs and Chevron and PAY NO TAX .... and if your complaining ... Oh and Glencore who the last two export billions in resources yet pay NO tax ... here.

    Sorry pet topic tax inversion and THEFT .... but ATO has done a great job, but only got .... 20% of it ... yep ... its that large ... the theft.

    Dealing with abusers and wife bashers and violence in the form of economic terrorism for the NEW ORDER ... of USA based Oligarchs, NO not a conspiracy theory, sadly a fact the tax paid ,,, the ONLY SOLUTION ....

    IGNORE the abuser ... IGNORE them .... and if it was a relationship, the poor battered soul eventually gasps for air and .... the ONLY .... ONLY way to get away from the diseased is LEAVE and NO CONTACT.

    Contact ... ANY CONTACT ... listening ... EMAILS and TWITTER .... what a joke ... is POISON. The ABUSER seamlessly will creep back in and the battered wife is BACK on promises of they will CHANGE. Individual cant change and sadly at times nations, loose their way. For the individual usually something traumatic happened in younger years, not hugged enough, wet their pants till they were 14, breast fed NOT enough or like in game of Thrones that young price till age 14. An aside...

    NO CONTACT.

    GROW SOME BALLS and ENFORCE boundaries may be a stupid wish for 2019, but economic terrorism is something I have commented on time to time. SADLY is TIME again.

    Watch this, ex president of Mexico and a nation with one of the better healthcare systems run Universally for its people, IT A CLASSIC and will make you laugh.



    Paying attention to idiots, abusers and well .... stupid ... and I am not being arrogant in this, merely many years has taught me to present a scientific unbiased case, and impartial, clinical and NOT linking stupid cause and effect or bogus models .... and EVEN then .... of course humans will choose. As they SHOULD. Having done so, on some very vigorous discussions that were fan clubs and PR central for companies and being critical of a claim via a company is .... NEVER welcome ... but pointing out the study or PRODUCT or accounts are BOGUS ... is of value to some.

    Some, WILL NEVER be convinced and sadly, the Uranium discussions I have had is just one of many in say 2007, going ... gee there are 7 new mines coming on Line in Kazakhstan, Olympic dam as 75 years of WORLD supply costing NOT a lot to produce as its a BY product .... v Copper and gold and silver ... the SHORT term supply situation caused by a few one offs evaporated and even the prediction about 50 year old reactors NOT being so safe and NEW reactors ... WILL cost 5 times predictions ... NOPE ... it is what it is. PRESENT your case and RUN.

    Reality, RELIGION and POLITICS and investing .... one supposedly should not discuss any of them and GOOD reason, Faith based ideals vs scientifically unquestionable WILL NEVER agree. Nor people faithful to a party, and THIS is 25% NO MATTER what and closer to 40% will hold those beliefs. Investing and I am an old fart, those who know WHO I actually am, which is NO ONE from NO where ... to have Joe Hockey read out 90 seconds word for word about tax inversion of something I wrote in his last speech was amusing ... same for two of the largest funds and hedge funds in the world about Inequality in the USA ... and ISSUES ...

    IT DOES NOT ... mean one is ALWAYS right. LISTEN and make your mind up !! Not to me, but to anything presented to you as FACTUAL or REAL. So many things presented as correct are mere, well, crap produced by those who have vested interests and going back to something NOT so topical, Uranium ... the supposed ... experts were ... WERE lobby groups paid for by the USA Nuclear Plants.

    BE VERY CAREFUL as to SOURCE ...

    BE VERY CAREFUL and SKEPTICAL .. in the extreme of statistics, one of the things I have shared in the past, is BREAKDOWN of SOURCE data and methodology of STATISTICS ... and POST 2000, USA has gone from BAD ... to WORSE THAN ZIMBABWE

    Enough ... drivel for now ....
    In December ASX 200 outperformed and CAUGHT UP with the USA equities .... Nealy ending positive ... V USA.

    Then again, under-performance V USA is massive, or was, but we decided NOT to trade Medicare and various other things for 21% tax and 90% to the top end ...

    Stay cool ... lights are changing and time for SOMEONE ... somewhere to SAY NO .... I joked about the USA ambassador the NEW one ... the girl about to have her meagure $180 per month food stamps cut off ... for MRS Gates and co, I would suggest sending the ambassador back to the USA with a protest ... on comments about USA fighting our wars ... when US and NZ and UK .... paid a toll. so horrific in WW1 it defies discussion but 5 times the USA losses per capita. So on one hand GLAD they stepped in ... forever thankful ... same for WW2 and without Coral Sea and Midway, and again not to belittle anyone's losses .... I merely object as always to the obvious. When 9/11 occurred, actually 28 nations, yes 28 ... went to WAR .... not just one. Our contribution in the last 100 years, has been ... 60 odd joint ones.

    Strange strange world we live in .... have some more OBVIOUS truths and no, I actually love 99% of Americans and are deeply grateful ....
     
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  2. Knobby22

    Knobby22 Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

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    Scatological!
     
  3. Darc Knight

    Darc Knight Investor not Trader

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  4. kahuna1

    kahuna1

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    scatological
    /skatəˈlɒdʒɪk(ə)l/
    adjective
    adjective: scatological
    relating to or characterized by an interest in excrement and excretion.

    seriously ... ? I will get back to you .... its a joke, a good one.
     
  5. satanoperca

    satanoperca

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    Kahuna is no Tisme, he has wisdom and is no smart arse, Welcome back, thought you must have gone to the grave, it has been a while since I have had the opportunity to read one of your posts
     
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  6. kahuna1

    kahuna1

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    Thanks,

    Not used to the .... robust style here, Funny I was talking of abuse ... xxx Will just do the Donald and since you can block them ... I shall. Life is too short to bother. Not that old ... just started in finance young Mr Know it all back in 1983 aged 18, oh how the time flies. I take it TISME is some sort of pest ?
    I got voted off one site once ... biggest looser supposedly for a stock called LUM when it was being ramped. Strange ASIC actually charged some person for once for having 6 NICs and ramping it. Stock of course went from 100 million Market cap to ... zero ...

    Hilarious ... me a pest again .... on finance sites ... since 1998 ... 5000 posts ... two biggest ... one over 100k members ... gee I am number one. SS ... sadly now gobbled up ... same thing 50k .... a few others similar ...

    Predicting things, CYCLES ... tops and bottoms is actually possible with a lot of work. Short term stuff with the short term idiot savant trading things .... not possible and shocking news comes out, like yesterday China basically saying get nicked AGAIN to any substantial changes to the trade policy and yep of course the market rallies when the selling stops. On he fundamental side, I counted and of the 2000 ASX stocks have at various times BOTHERED whilst of course looking for something good for myself in sharing analysis. Such loves that, well defy description in hindsight. Of course, occasionally one gets things WRONG and that's as always is the KEY .... if in doubt ... GET the hell out.

    If they lie to you .... Get out .... if they move 20-25% against the market if they are an established company ... I tend to wave the white flag and exit. Sure some exits are at the low, but the pain saved is well enormous overall.

    Actual abuse terms now are in common use and the NOISE out there is extreme from the USA. Whilst not that thin skinned, I do love things like "conspiracy theory" when a person is quoting hard numbers, SOURCE DATA and CAN give 100 examples of what happens 100 times out of 100 when this occurs. How high or LOW things go before then ?

    NEVER underestimate stupidity .... NEVER ....
    Oh and conspiracy is Conspiring .... planning to do something ... and I rarely is EVER talk about things that have NOT already happened .... markets rise 200% on hot air IS not a conspiracy its a reality and same for THEORY .... Theory is a polite way of saying IDIOTIC crap .... unproven untested. A theory verses where I come from, or try to is 25% or MORE believe NASA never went to the moon .... this despite telescopes that can see the site ... the reflectors left by followup missions .... on can shoot a laser at them and it bounces BACK every time ... let alone 100,000 NASA employees and sub contractors since then ... 50 years and NOT a single one ... HAS admitted it was fake.

    Can I safely assume its correct ? YES is the answer and WHILST still possible the chances for me are less than 1 in a million I am being faked.

    So, A bold statement above, is not really there. If your expect adding a 25% tariff to a nations exports does any PR for products made there, think again.

    The rest, is pretty straight forward or so I thought.
    Other pet new names which are either masked abuse or total crap ... Intelligent investors, sophisticated investors, FAKE NEWS is a classic and to have BLUE BLOOD media ... blue in the sense they NEVER fail to factually check and recheck their media ... sources and so on. to have the paper that broke the Watergate story labelled is where we are in 2019.

    An aside, I tend to deal in NUMBERS, balance sheets, raw data and almost PURE science. So if 100 nations and 4,000 odd years of decent records and at times 200 occurrences of the SAME thing always with the same end result, DON'T interest you as the to likely outcome, so be it. It is however a definition of insanity to do the same experiment over and over again with the same result and expect a different result. Then again Einstein was an intellectual moron according to some in 2019. I gasped with shock when the very very very large brain had a hunch about climate change after .... 15,000 scientists agreed upon a study .... UNHEARD OF .... 50 plus Noble Prize winners and Australian PM and he goes I am not going to change ... I have NOT read the report were his next words ... but the BRAIN ... he had a HUNCH ... I had a HUNCH but its spelt Lunch actually and I enjoyed it ! Not that my brain is anything other than pea sized and being human I can and do make errors.

    In a single gasp, 1,000 hours of research 40 years on average study of 15,000 of the worlds brightest minds of science is reduced .... to cinders. I suppose, I should expect a lot more ... given my admitted humble abilities verses these people. So Ill just toughen up and use the MUTE button and laugh at my old joke ...

    how does one keep an idiot in suspense ? Its valid as its how to deal with abuse in any form, ignore it .... DON'T ever respond ... or listen and tell them you will get back to them whilst you change your email, address and phone number .... or in this case putting a block on their posts is good enough.

    Of course each to their own ... must run and go back to the site that shares ideas about how NASA never went to the moon.

    Take care
    Mark
     
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  7. Knobby22

    Knobby22 Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

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    Apologies, I think I spelled it wrong. That's not want I meant!
     
  8. Knobby22

    Knobby22 Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

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    I was thinking of the word to describe someone who free associates when writing.
     
  9. tinhat

    tinhat Pocket Calculator Operator

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    Hehe. Words can be tricky. While urban dictionary suggests that a colloquial use of the term scatalogical can mean "Used to describe an idea or way of thinking that is neither sensible or logical", this is not the formal and more widely accepted meaning of the term. Interestingly, I live on the edge of the bush and was having far too many drinks with a couple of neighbours tonight talking about the local fauna and flora. We discussed "Tracks, Scats and Other Traces", Triggs in relation to some local animals I am wanting to identify. Scatology may not be that far removed from analysis of the stock market. I would not be surprised if Kahuna1 (Mark) lived near me.
     
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  10. Darc Knight

    Darc Knight Investor not Trader

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    Welcome back to you too Satan :)

    I was referring more to Tisme's "generous" use of English at times. While I understand you and he didn't get along, probably best we not bag the Man as he isn't here to defend himself.

    So another of us believing the ASX is on the slide. I assume everyone else in the XAO prediction thread is taking the pizz ..... or ramping.
     
  11. Skate

    Skate

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    Musing (a period of reflection or thought)

    I'm not disputing the accuracy of the above statement as they are both reflectively true. People with a financial background have a way with numbers.

    kahuna1, I enjoyed your post & your musings..

    Skate.
     
  12. Skate

    Skate

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    kahuna1, thank you for your inspiration musings, I'll make my comments about your musings in the 'Dump it here' thread..

    Allow me make one comment please:

    When you talk
    When you talk, you are only repeating what you already know.
    But if you listen, you may learn something new.

    I'm the first to say - I've learnt something new today !

    Skate.
     
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  13. kahuna1

    kahuna1

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    Thanks and read your musings with great interest.

    Confirmation bias, always an issue, connecting the sun coming up with some unrelated occurrence, on one hand its an easy way to tear to shreds any study even clinically prepared and make it a conspiracy theory, then again, I usually run 3 if not 4 models on things to filter it out, then go back .... BACK sometimes to the dawn of modern man and then see what occurs each time this happens. Strangely, or NOT so strange is that every time you RAISE interest rates and RAISE tax of course economies and overheated activity ceases, Corrections occur.

    Lending money below inflation, ALWAYS leads to a loss in real terms.

    Selling goods as TESLA now is doing below COST to try and win back customers, which is unlikely given the bloody nature of Chinese public opinion right now, IS never wise. It always 100% of the time leads to doom.

    A company with no profit and well sales are irrelevant unless they have HAVE a profit margin, is worth what what ? Nothing of course.

    Whilst the reports of 70% loss of sales there was denied it was NOT good whatever impact the current dispute had on sales there. Is it permanent ? Unlikely, but possible. Can it get worse ? Or course it can.

    Apple sales, similar issues and this is NOT the really big picture, the MASSIVE macro one that takes such diverse things into it, that one would NOT believe because at times, they are or seem irrelevant, until they ARE.

    Not predicting end of the world, NO there is always an idiot out there doing that. Its strangely this time different that, well, an aside for our current wealth and fortune a forgone conclusion that eventually it occurs via meteor or via much closer pressing issues. An aside for now.

    Destruction of markets you sell into via either draining wealth, ability to buy $1,499- phones and then spitting in the face of others who are 20% of your market via imposing tariffs v the way Samsung and apple went to court cross claiming and some won and lost over stealing the latest gadget .... is interesting but insane. Doing the same to the 30% EU market and NOT paying tax because we are entitled to NOT pay any tax on profits on sales to anyone anywhere .... an interesting all be it short dated and soon to end in tears action. I place a tariff upon you, whilst I steal your tax ...

    Hilarious and insane. Our market, well for me, its cheap very long term


    then again, USA, drives things. I read your thoughts with interest and YEP .... loved them.

    Cheers Mark ...

    oh and into the silly rally the ASX just had as the USA lost its mind ... I did dump the lot. I cant help myself even whilst promising to NOT be a trader, when someone one side early Dec goes and shreds our banks I go your stupid and then rallies the market as the USA well ... has a cow ... LOGIC and COMMON sense which is hard if not impossible to teach ... sell into stupidity .... dont try and pick the highs ....too much but then again even they in the computer idiot savant trading world are easier to pick ... and value is value ... even in the face of what is total fear, Buying something with tax breaks yielding 10% when I suspect with some conviction we have LOW rates for some time, a mantra and song I made up in 2010 ... ZERO forever ... sing with me ... ZERO FOREVER .... well it did stop ... in the USA but it took nearly 10 years and EU still there as is UK. Buying and earning 8% MORE than cash and doing it for 10 years one doubles their money, irrespective of anything. Of course as long as the dividends keep going.

    Being a scab and sadly, USA keeps spitting in its customers food ... and demanding they buy USA products, which well is Why some are such bushiness geniuss's and me NOT ... I will just play MR VOLATILITY and the plunge protection MAGIC rallies ... OH golly I love them ....
     
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  14. kahuna1

    kahuna1

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    Howdy

    From above ...

    I will just play MR VOLATILITY and the plunge protection MAGIC rallies ... OH golly I love them ....

    Ohh gee ... surprise surprise surprise .... the non farm payrolls showed ... well ... a well cooked number.

    Not unexpected and par for the course just like early 2008.

    In short, the week, and immediate outlook.

    Shutdown, USA still going, with, well my 7,000 plus fibs going the talks went well, and the people there going it was a joke. Mr 7,000 then going he will wait a year and bugger the 800,000-. Again, an aside as he may declare a national emergency to keep the ex Mexican president out.

    Similar, but market loved it, China talks, low level ones next week. Expect more positive, but, well. China has said its not moving on several issues. In the end, it is a smokescreen.

    Underlying this, at 21% tax, USA earnings are, well what they are and support the Market.

    Fed jawboning and making soothing noises, again a positive, but, well they did say they will NOT be bullied and on one hand the market is now assuming NO raises for 2019, where, Powell clearly indicated whilst making soothing noises, the OPPOSITE of the market taking out all rises in 2019,

    Opinion, yep but one as a Fed follower for 35 plus years, again irrelevant, short term.

    USA still behind its old highs and yep. a lot higher than our own over time, but then again cutting tax to 21% v 35% and ignoring the impact on the deficit and debt tends to do that.

    Suspect, again opinion, as we basically ignored the Dec selloff, yes we hit lows .... but came off them massively, we merely follow slowly a rise if that's the USA way and yet again lag behind. Basically the 3% plus rise USA Friday, we likely get 1-1.5% and so on if that's where they take it.

    Underlying this, one side positive and supporting USA and our own more so, stocks with great value and dividends verse very low rates here for some time, conversely, some bigger issues as always and top news of the week was Apple and backlash against tariff crap and if ... its merely a one off or as I suspect a longer term thing. A mistake ... raising prices whilst destroying your customer base.

    Oh of course the Democrats taking control of the House, senate, via its structure of 2 senators per state no matter if your population is 50 million or 5 .... unlikely ... to move EVER to a white card 60/40 so the President veto is besides the point. Republicans control the senate and 53/47 ,,, v House Democrats now in charge.

    Expect more HOT AIR on Muller and impeachment ... seriously just ... in the end a noise. President even if guilty and well it appears so ... his servant go to jail but he can give himself a pardon and even if NOT, his next president just like Nixon ... who was given one, clearly guilty on Watergate, walked. WHAT IS NOT TO BE FORGOTTEN .... is if 2020 is lost ... the statute of limitations will still be open to prosecution as a person NOT the president ... but Mr Trump. Expect some unusual behavior if the polls show him behind in 12 months. AND as if things are not unusual now !! NO chance of impeachment and it being done whilst in office or very very low chance.

    playing blind mans bluff, for any other nation, closing the govt even partially, WOULD and SHOULD have credit rating agencies jumping up and down, IMMEDIATE CREDIT watch and downgrades, especially a nation that promised SOME more tax being collected via amnesty and lower rate. Unfortunately, giving greedy tax cheats, and the tax in question the CEO's were bringing back was stuff stolen from overseas and THIS trade war is again, classic abuse tactic of accusing unfair practices whilst I rape and steal, the TAX meant to be slowing at 15% discounted rate as 3-4 trillion overseas, tax came back ... well that was NOT good enough for them so ... shhh ... its a secret NO tax coming in ... USA budget in tatters ... Credit rating agencies ignoring tax collected at 30% of GDP v 40% for the rest of the world and debt at 100% of GDP and well ... deficit at 5% plus ... the new tax dodge from the tax evading creeps is to park all the stolen tax not paid to EU and japan and every nation over the last 15 years since the last amnesty ... park it in a tax haven ... then announce as though its come back into the USA massive buybacks which on the main are now already over .... buybacks as the capital gains tax at 15% v 35% plus personal rates are too high ... so Apple buys 9 billion of stock 33% higher ... let alone old GE and its 20 billion 400% higher ... great for P.E and earnings ,,, but this latest tax idea out of the investment banks is to PARK the actual stolen tax .... in a haven, with NO TAX, then LEND the money from the tax haven and earnings are TAX free ,.,,, whilst charging the COST ... yes a legitimate COST ... in interest expense whilst earning a tax deduction at 15% and paying NO tax the other side ... awaiting the NEXT tax cut Mr Dump has planed and the next amnesty ... at 5% v 15% v what used to be 35% tax.

    I wonder how they will like the new DRONGO tax coming out soon ? All with shiny penalties and actual jail terms. But that's late Jan 2019.

    Again, an aside, I really don't expect the credit rating agencies to act, NOT EVEN MURMUR ... even with the govt shut down, even with well a missing 250 billion corporate tax collected, let alone idiotic estimates on increases in collections .... all this is an aside, until, well it isn't.


    But I can. in one press conference after outright telling a lie about the meeting with House and saying it was very productive and going very well, in seconds go to. ... oh it may be a year shutdown .... to ... well I can call a national emergency because the Mexicans are NOT paying for the wall ? God I love the circus it all is.

    Strangely ... jawboning and plunge protection team .... and so on.

    Meanwhile ... things festering and actually changing out there. Santa gave a few backbones to people r so it seems and if the absurdity of, what is going on, NOT ... the underlying stuff ... the stupidity of having to watch a govt dismantle every protection for the consumer via presidential decree and having ex lobbyists who championed destruction of various things NOW in charge of agencies meant to protect them is ... well, what it is.

    Happy 2019, but for now, up up and away ... making Mr Paulson ex CEO of Goldman Sachs in 2008 look not like a pig, then again Cohn another ex ceo and his budget of 2018 ... after paying himself 300 million departing Goldman sachs ... to become the 5th successive ex Goldman bunny or zombie running the budget and social security and Medicare ... cannot I suspect be t0opped ... oH no its Munchkin ,,, same thing ex Golmans .. Cohn was merely the advisor to the president ... same thing ...

    Ahh ,, we live in hope ... and stupidity awaiting a comment out of the IMF or even Fed on the Fiscal side. The USA fed, whilst the new guy ... has some backbone ... IGNORES and in this the only real central bank in the world that ignores the Fiscal side. HENCE ... they have a massive sloppy big stimulus with over 1 trillion YEP 1 trillion deficit in 2019 .... and well ... rates tightened and almost ... at CPI. So one hand push and the other pull ...

    Leaving all of it ... yawn ... pick the eyes out of the volatility ... ignore the noise and hoopla. Its a distraction and to need to be the headline every single day is tiring as a child throwing a tantrum. I just read wearing yellow makes you look bugger, not orange, maybe some yellow gloves to make his hands look good may distract him ? Maybe a Chinese finger puzzle is the go, he is to arrogant to ask for help and it would be amusing to see him with two fingers on opposing hands stuck together for the next 2 years.

    Take care
    Mark Kahuna
     
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  15. Xendragon

    Xendragon

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    @kuhna1 seek help bro you have much knowledge but you yourself have become unhinged. Much love Xen.
     
  16. kahuna1

    kahuna1

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    Ahh, how I love, comments like this.

    Science is science, history when it occurs 100 times the same way, is an experiment conducted 100 times with the same result. If in the course of a career since 1983, and my own form of community service, sharing, for free, hundreds of hours of research, at times thousands, offends you, or the science of doing something, that NEVER works, time and time again, is NOT of interest, well so be it.

    With love, I will get back to you .... that amusing joke about how to keep idiots in suspense comes to mind as I use the blocker function on the posts ... tee hee

    xxx
     
  17. kahuna1

    kahuna1

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    Howdy.

    well .... noise and the old rally rally rally after plunge protection comes in and its magic.
    Prior to Trumps fireside chat, again noise and an extension of Wetback Policy number one .... when he was 8 years old still in nappies and still being breast fed ... Trump born in 1946 by the way and the oldest ever USA president ..
    ..
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Wetback
    Operation Wetback was a system of tactical control and cooperation within the U.S. Border Patrol ... from 1954 ...

    Difference being .... Mexico agreed, I did post the thoughts of the ex MExican president and the new one, if anything more opposed.

    An aside, we are half way back from the lows and our market did very well v the USA in Dec ignoring all or close to it of the pain.

    Not much to say, of any value other than its hot air.
    On China and trade deal, these trade deals have little to do with anything other than protecting patents and when say Mexico was threatened ... with almost a balanced trade two way with the USA but, really of little value as parts for cars from the USA sent to Mexico and assembled and sent back ....

    again as GM sacking 22,000 workers in the USA, the futility and stupidity of these things have more to do about tax evasion and protecting non payment of tax .... in free trade and NO TAX .... issues than anything else. Again, an aside, for now, the distraction value as one after another threat, which really isn't is pushed to distract the bottom line ....

    Ho HUM ...
    Our stocks ... on the dips were value .... I do have some concerns about the stupid change to tax imputation via LAbor if they get in. That, well, explains some of the shredded nature of our markets in 2017-2018.

    The low, well .... its now miles away and USA, stocks, seemingly on fire.

    Play the ranges and avoid if one can the extreme noise.
    I cant and find it, well .... upsetting ... oh and a trade deal with China, seemingly closer and even if it were so, it remains to be seen what if any value it is longer term .... I doubt much and ... the second thing is the damage done to the USA brand name in China whether it was a one off ... the drop say in Apple sales or Tesla at ... even worse.

    Must run and prepare for our commander and chief ... to speak.
    Cheers
    Mark K
     
    IFocus and Darc Knight like this.
  18. kahuna1

    kahuna1

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    Ho hum,

    oh the noise .... the forest is gone and so too the tree's.
    The current stuff, well ... noise.

    It was and is amusing to remember end of Dec 2018 USA had fallen by how much ? The whole year ... ??

    OOOOHHH 4% or so .... we went down 8% or more .... and without the ignoring of Dec via the USA it would have been more.

    USA via the magic of PPT and well now a muzzled USA fed ... to some extent .... up up and up and we follow but of course slower, for the above reason.

    Beyond this, lower levels and recent lows .. well passed but down there and verses a low longer term interest rate outlook here, a good value to buy at 7% or more dividend. Cloud on the horizon and why I suspect, any rally, any meaningful one here is unlikely in 2019 is the Labor proposed new dividend rules and not being able to get a refund, merely just deduct it against tax owed is a really big thing given the size of the superannuation pool and its growing nature.

    Other thing, slowly slowly the old tax office with 30 other nations working towards the inevitable end of this tax theft and inversion stuff. They tried, not imposing fines, and well ... the majority went and just changed the structure and went down another rabbit hole. Monday and the ATO meeting was, well illuminating where we are going within 18 months and the EU and a few others likely in three years.

    The gist of it is, NO >>>>> NO MORE .... eat poo .... and the arrangers, those being investment banks and accounting firms are to be treated just like someone stealing welfare or fraud via say claiming NDIS or govt money when not providing the service. It is no different and despite the lobbyist for Goldman's our new USA ambassador and thinking he will prevail, so so sorry ....

    And this is the other half of the proposed DRONGO tax, which is under wraps, for now. Its neat, its clean and making it an enforcing theft as a criminal offense, no amount of political donations into EU nations or Australia will work. For now, again just noise.

    Market wise, well ... if the USA holds true to course .... and those idiot savant computer things in now open and legal ... plunge protection scheme .... work, first stop on say the S+P 500 is passed a 25% bounce which is very normal to occur quickly .... next the 50% between the low of say the s+p at 5,333 or so and 5,992 or some 660 points so half that is 330 .... so .... 5,660 .... or there about and that's, well ... one magic rally day away.

    I don't expect them NOT to try it, the Chinese hot air and NO DETAILS or likely change in reality will I suspect be the spur or maybe the ... ending of the shutdown ... either way, a word of caution is that USA ignoring even well ... worrying things. Fed chief says he is actually looking at the govt debt side and is worried ? Holy hell ... its not since pre Greenspan and Volker any USA fed chief looked over the Monetary side and went ... are you joking. Also, the tax implications of actually having to pay ... not claim to have paid, as a few of the tech people did, straight faced to our tax office CLAIMED they paid 25% tax on profits globally .... when NOW we are handed USA tax returns along with EU and so on.

    They didn't pay it here ... NOR the USA ... easily seen via tax receipts ... let alone now their tax returns, they paid it into a fantasy tax haven .... and worse, lent the money to the USA parent at double the going rate and claimed 21% tax write-off, into ZERO tax haven tax rate and then ... with a straight face ..lied not only to the Australian tax office, the EU guys were ... even more upset.

    Must run, off to Davros and the World economic forum .... and hoping to catch a dance with Janet Yellen again .... along with the Oligarchy heads and their annual meeting. Since Donald will not be there the dance with Mikaliea is out .... sadly ...

    Cheers

    Mark K ...
     
  19. Knobby22

    Knobby22 Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

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    I am worried about Brexit. I thought it would be a managed exit but it is looking more and more as being completely unplanned due to a failure of democracy.
     
  20. Smurf1976

    Smurf1976

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    Agreed there. It's looking like it's going to be a completely disorderly event unless the whole thing ends up being called off, or at least postponed, at the last minute.
     
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