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TOL - Toll Holdings

Discussion in 'Stocks Q-Z' started by GreatPig, Jul 4, 2005.

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  1. robots

    robots hello

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    hello,

    interesting watching the Toll-Patrick battle

    cant see why Little would lift bid now that ACCC has given go ahead

    who is going to be another bidder? no-one

    Toll reduced offer when Patrick paid recent dividend, so cant see Toll lifting bid too much, if at all

    may only be by virtue of Tolls own share price appreciation

    like Nicks has mentioned, Patrick going nowhere and people will start jumping off Patrick with Toll picking up the pieces.

    Only one that can save Patrick now would be an institutional investor that takes Patricks side to keep above the compulsory acquisition I would think

    Thankyou
    Robots
     
  2. Nicks

    Nicks

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    I have no problem with Little being an aquisitions junkie, providing its within TOLLs area of core competencies (ie Logistics).
    In fact, as a shareholder I expect it.
     
  3. Nicks

    Nicks

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    Hi All

    just thought id give an update:

    well the market is betting on Patrick shareholders taking up the offer. As TOL shares edge over $14.20 and higher this means that the offer to Patrick shareholders is becoming very attractive, as the offer included TOL shares and was made on the assumption of TOL shares being valued at $14.05.

    So if you are a Patrick shareholder, then you are sitting on a very nice deal and opportunity to get lots of high value shares and become part of Asia's leading logistics company. If you are a TOL holder, be happy with the increase in share price which is reflecting the strategic value in this company.

    Without the TOL offer, Patrick shares will undoubtedly fall back to where they were (if not lower) prior to market speculation of the TOL bid (eg back to share price of June 2005). So the risk is reject and drop 30% PRK share price, accept and get a premium value for your capital which will benefit shareholders of both sides.
     
  4. GreatPig

    GreatPig Pigs In Space

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    A possible diamond reversal forming here?

    Cheers,
    GP
     

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  5. GreatPig

    GreatPig Pigs In Space

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    Out this morning for $13.65.

    It may find support around $13.25 - $13.30, but I'm off shortly, so probably won't be here to find out.

    Cheers,
    GP
     

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  6. RichKid

    RichKid PlanYourTrade > TradeYourPlan

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    Looks bearish alright GP, everyone is getting out at those high levels, if it gaps down then we may have an island reversal of some kind up there. Watching RIO for a similar pattern but RIO is in a much stronger trend.
     
  7. robots

    robots hello

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    hello,

    ACCC has allowed Patrick to acquire FCL today


    is this payback to TOL for Little's comment about Pacific National that it will not be a big deal if PN is sold, I suspect so.

    interesting battle now, talking aus, Patrick has road, rail, wharf and planes

    TOL has rail, road and ships to tassie

    you can understand Corrigan wanting to protect this, and understand Little wanting to gobble it up

    thankyou
    Robots
     
  8. StockyBailx

    StockyBailx

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    It looks as though TOL may have gone into a world of its own. After all the excitement of buying out Patrick, and now that most of the smoke may have cleared I've got a good feeling TOL may be about to pounce and surge its holdings forward and expand into god only knows what.
    If I'm not mistaken TOL's yearly charts are famous for big dips, which in turn can lead to good profits. TOL's monthly charts, like the one's below show signs of a flying saucer as we speak, near to completion as TOL moves ahead today @ 17cents.:)
    I'm just saying that by loocking at TOL's charactor, present activity and those flying saurcers UFO's i think I see. Now may be a good time to invest for a long term, Maybe?

    It's your money not mine?
     

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  9. Nicks

    Nicks

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    Good call StockyBailx, TOL is surging ahead quite nicely and steadily. This is one of my long term faithfuls now and im looking at close to $20 by this time next year as the gains from this and last years difficult aquisitions and gains become realised and very profitable.
    TOL is on track for being one of the global powerhouses in logistics.
     
  10. StockyBailx

    StockyBailx

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    Good luck with that Nicks, I don't see any reason except for the marquarie bank and that other bloke? Corrigan! Seems to have a lot of interest and voting power in tol and can course quite a stir. Other than that you shouldn't get bugger all. When i look at tol, I exspect it to break the 15.8$ mark, before I could be sure that tol was to surge ahead. Tol also seems to be acting a little bit complicated to me, but I still think that with all of its extra credited assets Tol will be able to greate a transporting clobel empire and take over the US giants. With that much to do, and tolls nature of buisness for them to do it properly, - time will tell I guess.
     
  11. StockyBailx

    StockyBailx

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    If little doesn't lose that Corrigan Tol will go sideways for ever i reckon. Little wants to go one way, and Corrigan wants to go the other way, stale mate for tol. Cut the string that holds them together and watch Tol rise?
     
  12. scsl

    scsl

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    what's going on with TOL today? there's no announcements or news coming up in comsec. a quick look at the chart shows that it is close to its consolidation base of about $13.15.
     
  13. scsl

    scsl

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    Looks like TOL is heading towards $13 again... I was hoping it would break out of its consolidation range of between $13-15 but it was not to be. Looking at Commsec, TOL currently has very positive analyst recommendations. Is the sp not heading anywhere for the time being because the market is waiting for more convincing news on the Patrick takeover/guidance?
     
  14. Nicks

    Nicks

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    Gordon says that the faith in TOL has paid off. Im seriously happy about the position of this company. Looking at it, it has moved from an Australian player to a global player. This opens up the revenue base and value chain to me as an owner and shareholder. Little is a genius and couldn't have done better.
     
  15. wizz

    wizz Wizz

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    Tol - getting close to $18

    This stock is incredible, just powering up at the moment. Been in and out about 6 times over the last decade and always regreted selling and bought in later at a higher price

    Latest entry at $13 and she seems to be heading for $20. Obviously fuel, successful Patricks integration and Virgin are all drivers together with traction in Asia.

    Big question to me is will they continue to be a predator or will they fall to a global consolidator like Dubai Ports?

    Either way it seems the ride will continue.
     
  16. Nicks

    Nicks

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    I confess my love for TOL.
     
  17. reece55

    reece55

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    Toll appears to be loosing momentum of late...... After a great run from August going from 13.50 to 18.50, the stock is touching the $18.00 barrier and IMO opinion may break through it. Any opinions here???

    From a fundamental perspective, the Company is looking overvalued - high PE multiple due to its profile as a growth stock which I am not sure is warranted (trading at 23x 07 median forecast). Dividend yield is pretty slim at about 2%. Plus, the stock is really on the backburner until the restructure proceeds..... And even the scheme booklets not due out until early March.

    The one thing this Company has managed to do in the last year and a bit is spend a crap load of shareholder funds on consultants. After god knows how much they spent on being consulted by Citigroup et al in acquiring Patrick (and IMO paying too much for the thing in the first place), now they are going to spin off the infrastructure assets for a yield play. And who have they got advising them - Clutz (the biggest rip-off legal firm in Australia - these guys charge grads out at more than $400.00 an hour for a copy and paste affair) and UBS - I am sure this will be cheap. Be prepared for the destruction of another forest of papers explaining the legal and taxation ramifications of the spin off - all of which no one will read (except for the analysts and perhaps the accountants). And where will the restructure expenses go - don't worry, you won't see in the precious profit and loss, it will go as a contra against equity......... Thereby maintaining EPS growth even if they ripped a crap load of funds and put in the hands of the rich consultants.

    Cheers
    Reece
     
  18. reece55

    reece55

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    Well, I am a big believer in admitting when things don't go the way you expect........

    After hitting the 18.00 barrier and breaking it on 11th Jan, this stock has done nothing but reach for the sky! Nice gap on 18th on high vol, with a new high today. The 19.30 ish resistance has been thrown to the wind, blue sky here for holders. Good luck to everyone riding this gravy train! If you had bought this one in Feb 06, you would have yourself a 100% return........ incredible for such a large cap stock in, of all industries, transportation and logistics.

    Cheers
     
  19. Nicks

    Nicks

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    Thanks reece, some insightful posts. I have to agree with you on the consultant and law form rip offs, but TOL aint no different to most big aussie companies in this respect. It is a shame the way these things have started to become endemic in big Australian companies.
     
  20. Nicks

    Nicks

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    on the mark then...
     
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