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Tipping Competition for Full CY 2016

Discussion in 'ASX Stock Chat' started by Joe Blow, Dec 16, 2015.

sentifi.com

Aussie Stock Forum Sentifi Top themes and market attention on:

  1. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    19 out of 32 beating the index as well, a third of us smashing it by more than 300%
     
  2. systematic

    systematic

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    Wow! That is some result!
    I love how Paavfc and explod are soo close - you couldn't script it any better. Wonder if one of them will hit a ten-bagger soon?

    Thanks for the speedy updates peter2; nice work.

    Good luck everyone in the last quarter!
     
  3. peter2

    peter2

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    EOM October 16 update: The XAO lost 2.3% this month (+1.1% YTD)

    Leader: Paavfc holds the lead comfortably (+240%)

    2nd: Explod suffers with falling gold price (+200%)

    3rd: Drillinto charges into third place (+77%)

    Biggest movers this month:
    drillinto +28%, jbocker +23%, Klogg +16%

    Competitors with 5/5 positive:
    paavfc, explod, drillinto, systematic

    # of competitors > XAO (out of 31):
    16 19 16 16 15 15 14 15 19 now 16

    asfoct16.PNG

    ps: Sorry for delay. Prices on asx.com were constantly even at 17:30hr.
    There may be some minor discrepancies with closing prices. No problem as there's two months left.
     
  4. peter2

    peter2

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    EOM November 16 update: The XAO gain 1.9% this month (+3% YTD)
    Although the index gained, most portfolio's lost value this month.

    One month remaining!

    Leader: Paavfc 's lead slipped significantly (+183%)

    2nd: Explod suffers with falling gold price (+165%)

    3rd: Drillinto maintains third place (+73%)

    Biggest movers this month:
    eragon +15%, trillionaire#1 +14%, systematic +8%,

    Competitors with 5/5 positive:
    paavfc, explod, drillinto, systematic

    # of competitors > XAO (out of 31):
    16 19 16 16 15 15 14 15 19 16 still 16

    asfnov16.jpg
     
  5. peter2

    peter2

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    If we would like to discuss any changes for next years competition, this month would be a good time.

    This is a yearly competition and rewards those that select the best buy and hold for a year portfolio. However a year is a long time in the market and I'd like to propose we allow ourselves some options for taking profits and/or reducing losses during the year.

    My suggestion for consideration is to allow a limited number of opportunities to replace a selection, any time throughout the year. This is a longer term competition and therefore we shouldn't allow too many replacements. I was thinking perhaps 4 or 5 only. Four would mean that we'd all have to hold at least one selection for the whole year.

    2nd suggestion: No replacements during Nov, Dec to allow for some luck to impact the results in the last two months. This would also prevent the leader from going very conservative to preserve lead.

    What do you think?
     
  6. explod

    explod explod

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    :xyxthumbs Sounds a good plan to me.
     
  7. So_Cynical

    So_Cynical The Contrarian Averager

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    1 : ok but perhaps a limit of 2 or 3, easier to keep track of and this is a 1 year picking comp and that should be given high consideration at the start.

    2 : Yes.
     
  8. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    Thanks for keeping record and the regular updates on this competition.

    Re proposed changes... I think the current format is OK. But if everyone's keen to have replacements then perhaps 2 stocks per quarter, and at the end of quarter only, would be interesting? That makes 6 changes maximum, with no replacement in the last quarter.

    Also, I think participants should also be allowed replacement if the company is taken over or bankrupt. With companies going belly up (I am looking at you DSH), A 100% loss will be recorded against the overall record, but a new stock can be selected to there's a chance of a comeback.
     
  9. Knobby22

    Knobby22 Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

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    Very impressive results for the top 4. Next year I am going to look closely at their tips.

    You don't want to destroy the competition. I like skc's plan.
     
  10. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Note most of the top guys have Start prices of under $ 3
    with the far majority under $1

    Valuesnatcher impresses with a massive 36% with Higher priced stock. (Particularly in this years volatility).
    I see this as more skill than luck.

    But then again you cant go past 4 and 5 selections in profit in the small end of town over 12 mths.

    Might Have a look at this myself next year.
     
  11. Klogg

    Klogg

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    Wow. This has doubled the performance of my actual portfolio...
     
  12. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    Just noticed that jbocker ORG's pick price is incorrect.
     
  13. peter2

    peter2

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    Thanks skc for the "heads up".

    Sorry jbocker, thanks for your PM and I hope you didn't get too much of a shock.

    asfnov16b.jpg
     
  14. peter2

    peter2

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    Thanks for your comments so far. I'm pleased to see that we have similar views regarding this competition.

    1. Five selections to be posted in a new thread before Jan 1st, 2017

    2. No alterations for the first three months.
    Up to two replacements may be made anytime during the month of March for the start of April.

    3. No alterations for the next four months.
    Up to two replacements may be made anytime during the month of July for the start of August.

    No changes for the final five months of the year.

    The limited number of replacements won't be onerous for the administrator and will only happen twice during the year. Most importantly these limitations for the replacements won't undermine the year long duration of the comp.

    At least one selection will have to last the year. If we pick a dud stock or a dud theme then we have to wear it for 3 or 4 months before being able to try something else.

    Are we comfortable with these conditions?
     
  15. explod

    explod explod

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    Sounds a good plan to me.

    Be good to see increased participation also.
     
  16. peter2

    peter2

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    I'm hoping that the limited ability to make a few replacements throughout the year will induce a few more participants. If we pick a dud stock, then we'll be behind but totally out of it and our new selection might put us back in the race.
     
  17. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    I'm in
     
  18. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    On the other side of the coin you could also use
    The opportunity to close selections to lock in
    Profit.
     
  19. Nortorious

    Nortorious

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    I've been missing in action on this forums thanks to a very full work diary and closing out things ahead of the end of year.

    I'll be in for this next year.
     
  20. pixel

    pixel DIY Trader

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    I'll rejoin too.
    and I second Peter2's 3 amendments.
     
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