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The transition to Futures trading

Discussion in 'Derivatives' started by pavilion103, Mar 26, 2013.

  1. LinRegSlope

    LinRegSlope

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    Most of the Futures brokers provide DOMs these days, i.e. IB, CQG etc
    CQG being a platform that you can get via a few brokers.
     
  2. CanOz

    CanOz Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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    Plenty provide DOMs, but not all data is level II. See my reply on the specific thread.
     
  3. MichaelD

    MichaelD Not fooled by randomness

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    Not a good day to be short.

    Nonetheless, IG Clients remain short.

    I've made acceptable money long today, but still only using very small position sizes. Will get serious about going long if we get solidly through the next rounditis resistance/support level at 5500.
     

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  4. VSntchr

    VSntchr

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    The actual June futures contract is teeeeeetering right on 5500, has broken though with 2 quick jumps but just sitting below at the moment....interested to see where the market ends up today..
     
  5. LinRegSlope

    LinRegSlope

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    5530 is the next target on my radar. Should the price move comfortably back up into the 5530-50 range and beyond then we're back in Bullish mode and the short term correction is complete, IMO.
    Support around 5470-80.
     
  6. Newt

    Newt

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    Hey Pav,

    I'm enjoying the diversity of futures instruments and discussion going on in here, but why not try the FTSE specific thread too? Let's have our cake and eat it too.

    Would be be great to have some more active trader discussion in the Derivatives section of the forum. :2twocents
     
  7. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    It is up and running mate. Check it out.
     
  8. LinRegSlope

    LinRegSlope

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    Overnight SPI action has the price back at the 5500 mark. After a pullback and support holding at the 5480 level, it now sits roughly in the middle of the 5480 - 5530 range, and appears to be grinding higher. With the overnight positive action in the US and EU it may test the 5530 level sooner rather than later IMO. Looking more Bullish than Bearish ATM.
    Any Swing Traders out there now Long on the SPI off the 5400 level?
    I only day trade the SPI, my preference for longer term swing trades is the FESX due to volume (EOD setups).

    SPI 30 min.jpg
     
  9. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    Not sure how others are seeing it, but to me it looks like we have seen top in a number of the indexes with price pushing down from late last week with a little more volatiltiy and then price pushing up a little to test the highs.

    The last 2 bars on the FTSE look very week, particularly last night.

    DOW will also be interesting. A very important next few trading days imo.

    If the weak pushes up fail and price falls, there can be a strong argument for the fact that an intermediate top has been reached.

    That is of course IF prices push lower in the coming week, whic is no guarantee.

    Even XAO is interesting if it holds at around the 5500-5550 area. Another rejection of the highs will be bearish.


    I'm calling it now, as I have the last couple of weeks. It all looks very bearish to me.

    Time will tell if I am correct in my analysis.
     
  10. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    Depends what timeframe you are talking as to bullish or bearish I guess.

    But I see things a little differently.
    Resistance ahead in the 5500-5550 area.
    My default position is always caution around this sort of resistance.

    I wouldn't see this as bullish unless it breaks through the 5550 area and then probably pulls back either intra-day or on the daily to test these recent highs as a support area.

    Until then I am going on record saying this looks bearish to me and if I was looking for a position trade I'd be looking for a good low-risk setup between here and just below the 5550 area.

    Time will tell.
     
  11. LinRegSlope

    LinRegSlope

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    Agree that it needs to break out of the 5530-50 range for the correction short to be completed.
    A number of the futures markets are treading sideways (bigger picture EOD charts), so will be interesting to see which way it swings.
    Ayway I retain my Bias as up, down, or sideways.
     
  12. LinRegSlope

    LinRegSlope

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    When you refer to position trade, I take it you are referring to a Swing Trade over larger timeframes, i.e. hourly, 4 hourly etc? Just curious.
    I use the 30 min chart, and sometimes a 15 min chart, on the SPI as a guide for the current short term trend, but use 3 range bars intraday for setups, entries and exits. My average intraday profit target is small, with very tight even smaller stops (trailing).
    Like you say all depends on the timeframe, and to add to this the objective for the trade.
     
  13. CanOz

    CanOz Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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    Big call to be bearish right now, but make enough calls and you're bound to get one right yeah? Lets look at the various future contracts around the world....

    These are daily's....Dollar Index, US Bonds, VIX(weekly), DAX, FTSE, EUROSTOXX, RUSSELL, S&P, DJ, HANG SENG, KOSPI, NIKKEI225, and the SPI
     

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  14. CanOz

    CanOz Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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    Here are the rest....it will take a few posts...
     

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  15. CanOz

    CanOz Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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    Here are the last ones...

    So for all these markets, the Dollar index is in a bracket and could break higher, a bearish sign for indices?

    Bonds have been in a strong uptrend and just pulled back, start of a bracket?

    The VIX is a weekly and its near all time lows? Contrarian indicator of complacency?

    The DAX has just broke out of a bracket and is nearing all time highs...

    The FTSE has just broke out of a flag, technically still in the bracket, major uptrend, near all time highs...

    Eurostoxx - just broke out of a bracket near all time highs...

    The TF, the Russell 3000 has been in a significant downtrend, the small caps have not down well, they are in a bracket now and could break higher, this would be bullish.

    The ES or S&P 500 mini is grinding higher, close to all time high again....

    The DJ is the same, grinding higher, close to all time highs, just broke out of a bracket...

    The Hang Seng is powering higher after making a significant higher low....broke out of a small bracket a few days back...

    Kospi is very similar, Channel? Just broke out of significant resistance...Asian markets are doing ok....

    The Nikkei just put in a higher low off a double bottom....could break higher...

    The SPI just off recent highs, uptrend still intact....

    So you could be right, things may turn, but i would think we would need to bracket for a bit first, wouldn't expect a big turn on a dime.

    The small caps in the US need to come around, why are bonds rallying? Interest rates are never going to rise again:confused:
     

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  16. CanOz

    CanOz Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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    Here's another one, the NQ's....the Nasdaq really pulled back as risk came off the table, now its broke out of a little consolidation and rising higher....a test of the highs as well?
     

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  17. kid hustlr

    kid hustlr

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    FWIW, and I think this got touched on in another thread, the world bond rally is really interesting. It's caught a whole bunch of funds off guard I'd say and all the 'pros' were predicting US 10 yields @ 3.00% or higher by year end, they are currently @ 2.50% at a major support level after yields have really come off over the past few weeks/months.

    Seems very strange for bonds to be rallying as we are so close to all time highs in so many equity markets. Something's gotta give.
     
  18. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    I'm thinking longer term.

    At major tops and bottoms I look to hold a contract or two for the big move.

    I am still holding a FTSE contract from last Thursday and if it breaks and continues down I'll ride it for weeks if it keeps going.

    So we are talking completely different timeframes.

    I also trade intra-day and take maybe 2 or 3 good trades, close some out at S/R levels and maybe hold one overnight if I'm confident it will continue on.
     
  19. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    Interesting charts.
    Thanks for those.

    If it does break higher, specifically thinking FTSE, THEN I will be looking for a longer term long position to go with my intra day trading.

    Interesting time ahead.
     
  20. LinRegSlope

    LinRegSlope

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    Canoz, thanks for the overall summary, very interesting. Broader scope than what I track, appreciate the input.
     
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