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Most liked posts in thread: The transition to Futures trading

  1. Trembling Hand

    Trembling Hand Can be found on the bid

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    If learning is what you really want to do. Here would be my steps to learning futs if I was to do it again.

    Spend some time learning basic NT (5 -10 hours)

    Spend some money getting data from IB for SPI, Kospi, STW, Nikkei, ES, YM, CL, GC, DAX, FTSE and a few FX crosses. ($150 per month)

    Set up NT each day to record depth and every tick for playback. (daily connect setup 5 min per day)

    When you have some spare time each week spend it on the sim PLAYING on everyone of the above markets. Doing anything, putting on size, scalping, hanging on for a few hours, being in the market ALL the time etc etc(5 hours per week)

    Then after a few months when you have had a good look at all markets and see how they are when they get wild and when they are boring as bat Sh!+ pick a few where you have some interest.

    Then pick a few patterns that you think repeat in those markets and print them out and put them in a folder in sections, breakouts, wild starts, ranging, fake breaks, low range days, large range trending days etc...... What you want to do now is every day add to the folder whenever you see the same pattern in your markets.

    With those two or three Markets and your growing collection of repeating patterns on the weekend and 1 or 2 day through the week put aside a few 2 hour blocks. Now here is the bit that will save you years and worthless side trips down the discipline road. Turn on NTs playback function. Set it to 10x speed and hit with all you have. Trade it seriously with 2 lots and don't kid yourself. Keep stats (which NT is good at) and really work on them. Win rate, R:R hold time etc. You will do 20 hours of intense trading and training in two hours. After a few months you will literately have years of examples played out in your head.
     
    aus_trader, jjbinks, Triple B and 2 others like this.
  2. CanOz

    CanOz Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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    The ladder is the ladder, there's not allot the guys at Axia will teach you that Pete can't. They have plenty of free vids too that are well worth watching. However, any course on market/volume profile is worth the money if it can teach you how to develop context.
     
    Skate and peter2 like this.
  3. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    Welcome to the forum mate :)
     
    jjbinks likes this.
  4. Trembling Hand

    Trembling Hand Can be found on the bid

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    Yes, successful break out trades are the least common set up in futures markets. I think newbies struggle with this when they come from a stock picking back ground and expect Index futures to act the same way. When you trade stocks you look for momentum setups and play the carry on from that momentum. Indexes rarely work the same way. That is because of the constituents that make up the Index. To have a true break you basically need at least 50% of the constituents to be behaving as break outs and then going on with it. Its very rare to have that setup.

    You do get very big pushes in directions but my guess (I'll get to this later) is that 80% of the time you will have some reversion back to the mean after a certain time. That is because even if the strong stocks that keep going the weaker ones will start to fail and pull the index back robbing the overall index of momentum.

    So do I. in part because you can have a stop that is very/relatively tight and more importantly you get so many more setups. A small edge repeated 20 times a day is much better than one that appears once a week.

    As to my 80% chance of a break failing I have some time ago tested the times when you have a large range day that starts at one end and ends at the other. There usually is only 2 or 3 per month. If that is your setup and you only win 50% of them thats going to leave you with either not much to do all month or getting cut to bits playing a setup that hardly ever turns up.

    With that said it obviously can make a huge advantage if you can recognise when to play that way. To catch a 2% move in an index or greater and hang on with some size can make the diff between long term success or failure. Especially if instead of riding it you fight it all the way and smash your account.

    So with intraday this is really the essence of long term success. Learning to read what "type" of market we have and how long that will stick. Whenever I hear good traders talk about their upcoming trades or their approach to the day I rarely hear them talking specific TA "patterns"...... they talk in themes.
     
    jjbinks likes this.
  5. Virge666

    Virge666

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    minwa likes this.
  6. cynic

    cynic

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    grah33 likes this.
  7. minwa

    minwa

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    Commercial hedgers (real needs people - producers) of commodities are as influential to price as large speculators (funds).
     
    Gringotts Bank likes this.
  8. minwa

    minwa

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    Yes, the producers do not take actual delivery via futures contract. Participants are big producer companies from all over the world, for them all to get their supply of commodity via the trading exchanges would be logistically impossible.

    They do so via their usual suppliers of commodities. They participate in the futures market to hedge the price. This does not make them speculators. Their hedge in the futures market balances out price in their price fluctuations of purchases with suppliers.

    You can see the trading volume of producers easily in a COT.

    kot.png
     
    Skate likes this.
  9. grah33

    grah33

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    Okay then. Thx for the detailed explanation.
     
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  10. CanOz

    CanOz Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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    For long term comparison we use continuous futures, either merged back adjusted, or merged non back adjusted. Suggest that Mt does offer that feature
     
    grah33 likes this.
  11. minwa

    minwa

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    Williams: how i made one mil
    Crabel: opening range breakout (this books costs around 1k unless you can find a good 2nd hand)
    Angell: sniper trading

    They only teach concepts that you have to develop into your own method. I am not familiar with VSA so search other's posts for that.
     
    barney likes this.
  12. CanOz

    CanOz Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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    If you want to trade futures check out www.axiafutures.com

    Also, a heads up. If you want this bad enough you need to either fork out enough dough for training and education from reputable sources or do the hard work yourself....I'm guessing neither is that appealing to you given you couldn't even be bothered buying a book!
     
    minwa likes this.
  13. grah33

    grah33

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    Yeah, that is what is luring me, the VSA, as it's popular around here .But i'll keep being open minded and see. You probably use volume just in a different way or similar. I got to pick a TA way and go for it. Either VSA , or explore those books u mentioned, or the profiling and order flow methods out there. Or maybe keep trying price action with no volume stuff at all (as in the babypips course).
     
    minwa likes this.
  14. minwa

    minwa

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    I do not use volume at all. There are some who swear by it. So have a explore and see if it suits you. If you wish you can youtube some Larry Williams materials to see if it resonates with you before you purchase the book. Do the same with VSA/profiling/orderflow.

    PS. George Angell's book only applies to day trading so if you wan't to trade longer term no need to consider it.
     
    grah33 likes this.
  15. CanOz

    CanOz Home runs feel good, but base hits pay bills!

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    If you're going to do this, then start writing a plan. What market? You need a market that suits your time zone or hours where you can sit in front of the screen. What time frame? Are you only technical or fundamental? What about economic news?
     
    Roller_1 likes this.