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The Recession of 2019/2020...

Discussion in 'Business, Investment and Economics' started by Darc Knight, Nov 5, 2018.

  1. Darc Knight

    Darc Knight Investor not Trader

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    I'm no @Garpal Gumnut but New Car sales declined 5.3 per cent in October, for the seventh consecutive month!

    Key economic indicator???!!!
     
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  2. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    No just everyone getting reading, for silly Billy taking the wheel.:roflmao:
    I've been keeping my eye on a couple of cruises, both in 2020, the 2019 ones have sold out.
    Well the 2020 cruises, have sold out now lol, jeez I've never seen anything like it.
    Billy has hit the hornets nest. IMO
     
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  3. Darc Knight

    Darc Knight Investor not Trader

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    You emigrating if Billy gets in Homer?

    I thought you ole school folk judged an Economy by its New Car sales?
     
  4. SirRumpole

    SirRumpole

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    It's all Labor's fault for looking like they may win the next election. :roflmao:
     
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  5. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    Well in the 'good old days', there was two major costs, to the working person(can't say man anymore).
    One was the house, the other was the car.
    When the cost of housing got too high, people would just buy a car instead and pay that off over 4-5 years. By then the cycle would usually have reset itself, because the car manufacturers put the prices up, and house prices stagnated.
    This link has long been severed, in reality cars and consumables, have become cheaper in real terms.
    Therefore as wages have gone up, compared to the price of consumables, it left free money to be absorbed somewhere else in the economy. People had the extra cash, they just had to work out where to spend it.
    So House prices started cranking, everyone could see 'jeez this is easy, buy it keep it, then flip it for a profit'.
    The Government makes money on CGT, the States make money on stamp duty, everyone's happy.
    That works great until everyone is hocked up to their eyeballs.:roflmao:
    That's why car companies are struggling, everyone in Australia has become like the U.S, where a car is just another consumable.
    I would be very careful, if I was thinking about buying a car, as an investment.:eek: :eek:
     
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  6. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    I don't think there is a 'may' in the equation.:xyxthumbs

    It isn't anyone's fault, it is just the churn mentality, in Australia.
    We give one side a go for a while, then we give the other side a go, you've been around long enough to have seen it umpteen times.
    The biggest problem this cycle, has been the Senate problem, which was Abbott's fault.
    He went to the election saying, if they didn't have a majority in both houses, he would call another election.
    Well that is history, they have realistically wasted two terms of office. IMO
     
  7. PZ99

    PZ99 ( ͡° ͜ʖ ͡°)

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    Nope. Well, yes.... kids are staying home longer and there's a shift from passenger cars to SUV's as families consolidate from multiple vehicles to one universal vehicle to save money and space.

    But NSW is the only state where the annual declines are. Yet its economy is booming.

    The other states' annual tally combined are higher than last year.
     
  8. Darc Knight

    Darc Knight Investor not Trader

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    I remember listening to Chris Richardson from Access Economics a few years back talking about how Australia is in a slow burn state (my words). That we are headed for a very harsh awakening call but we aren't listening. Things will get quite bad before we wake up.

    Unemployment at 5.3℅
    Employment growth at 2.5℅

    Not too shabby.

    Economic growth 3.4℅ How much of that is due to the thousands of Immigrants every week.

    Things can't go on the way they are.
     
  9. Knobby22

    Knobby22 Mmmmmm 2nd breakfast

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    I know from my eldest that she and her friends have no need or desire for a car being inner city Melbourne. They cycle, uber or use public transport.
    I'm sure in inner Sydney where parking is worse it is even more the case.
    Cars aren't cool and a must have for many of the young now.
     
  10. Darc Knight

    Darc Knight Investor not Trader

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    So the RBA lurks this Forum. Front page of The Australian today the RBA bangs on about two more years of a booming Economy, revising economic growth up to 3.5℅. Thanks RBA, I don't need your help to make a fool outta me! :D
     
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  11. satanoperca

    satanoperca

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    What are you guys talking about, who the hell needs a new car to get you from A to B. Cars today or the last decade and not the same as the 70's or 80's, they last longer and do not need to be replaced earlier. Cars are now a fashion item, not a need.
    New cars sales are not indicative of the health of the economy.
     
  12. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    I think if you read back a few posts, that is what we said.
     
  13. Darc Knight

    Darc Knight Investor not Trader

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    Well that used to be gauge of consumer confidence I thought. People hang on to the old banger for longer if they think things are tightening.
    Always good when a post stsrts with "what the hell are you guys on about".
     
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  14. Smurf1976

    Smurf1976

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    Two of the biggest social changes I've seen in my lifetime thus far:

    1. Young women employed in traditionally female occupations not only use computers, they do so of their own accord for recreation and consider them essential to daily life to the point of carrying one with them literally everywhere.

    2. It is common and socially acceptable that young men not only do not own a high powered car but have never owned any car at all and in some cases don't even have a drivers licence.

    Both are truly incomprehensible changes when viewed in a 1970's - 90's context when only geeks voluntarily used computers (which were sitting on a desk not carried in your pocket), it was a given that young men were into cars and getting your drivers' licence was just part of becoming an adult. The world has changed dramatically and very few saw it coming at least with the detail.

    I've actually used that computer example when speaking to an audience a couple of times and it does seem to resonate pretty well. Nobody's claimed it to be sexist yet thankfully - it's just highlighting a segment of society and pointing out that in the space of just 10 or so years they went from "no way would I ever do that" to "absolutely love it and do it every day". Amazing.
     
  15. Smurf1976

    Smurf1976

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    If cars are now a fashion item then surely they'd be an extremely good indicator of consumer confidence, far better than the were in the past when replacement was somewhat involuntary.

    Anything of a non-essential nature is always first to go when finances get tight.
     
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  16. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    Like we said earlier, cars are now just a consumable, their relative cost to wages has reduced to the point they are nearly throw away.
    A bit like T.V's years ago, you would take it in to the t.v repair shop, now put it out the front for the junk collection.
    Getting back to cars, years ago we would pull the motor out strip it rebuild it, now you would struggle to find a shop that could re bore the block.
     
  17. satanoperca

    satanoperca

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    This quote alone, seems to sum up society. No longer are we will to train, teach and nurture people, if they cannot do their job, throw them out and find a new one.
     
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  18. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    Not really when we rebuilt the motors in cars, a new car cost a couple of years wages, now you can buy a near new car for 3 months wages.
    Also metal technology has improved, 30 years ago a motor was worn out after 160,000klm, now even a basic car engine will do 200,000 - 300,00klm.
     
  19. Smurf1976

    Smurf1976

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    I recently fixed the dishwasher. I don't know its history, it came with the house, but I found the manufacturing date inside - March 1992.

    Found water level sensors required adjustment, the "normal" and "overflow" points being virtually identical so producing intermittent faults which stop the machine, and also some control board repairs required to the heater switching.

    So I now have a fully functioning dishwasher which cost practically nothing to repair. Trouble is, if I was doing that commercially and charging any realistic hourly rate then nobody in their right mind would have paid the cost given it's a 26 year old machine.

    Much the same applies to most things these days. Repair is worthwhile only if you either like doing it or at least put a lower $ value on your time than a commercial repairer would need to. As a business proposition the idea is well past dead.
    :2twocents
     
  20. satanoperca

    satanoperca

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    That makes me laugh, a new car cost a couple of years wages, so did a full stack programmer, 10 years experience, today, you can buy the same experience for 2 months wages in AUD overseas.
    Hence my statement, we live in a society that throws things away that are still of some value.
    This includes myself, I no longer employee Australians, as I can get 5 new engines, back end and front end developers for the cost of one engine (developer in Aus), times change and we all need to understand the changes and change with them.
    Ie, i miss the time I got milk delivered to my door
     
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