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The bottom is in!

Discussion in 'ASX Stock Chat' started by greggles, Mar 1, 2019.

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  1. greggles

    greggles I'll be back!

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    Just had an idea for a thread that I'm sure has been done before but that's no reason not to do it again.

    A good trading opportunity is finding stocks that have built a strong base and are then heading up off that base, particularly on rising volume. In other words, stocks where the bottom is in and there are potential gains to be made trading it as it rises off that base.

    Please post charts of any stocks that meet that description in this thread. It will be interesting to keep track of them and see which ones have succeeded and which have failed.

    I'll start with INR. Nice double bottom at 14c and good volume at it heads north. The eight million volume day in the middle of February looks like capitulation to me. I'm late on this one but it's as good a place as any to start the thread off.

    big.chart-INR.gif
     
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  2. greggles

    greggles I'll be back!

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    Looks like a bottom at 4c for Northern Minerals (NTU). Today it has gotten through resistance at 5c on good volume so I'm a little more confident that the worst is behind it.

    big.chart-NTU.gif
     
  3. greggles

    greggles I'll be back!

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    Just a note that NTU is up 34.62% today to 7c. When I posted yesterday it was 5.2c.
     
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  4. Miner

    Miner

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    @greggles Great Thread and thanks.
    Probably challenge is when to catch your thread and taking action as a free lunch :)
    I noticed after your posting this one, the stock shot up. Same happened with NTU .
    But then INR dived down after two days bonuses.
    So knowing this is not an advise, what is the strategy you apply to pick up the bottom, for short time analysis or for long term ?
    Once again, thanks for your research data being available to all of us.
    Regards
     
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  5. greggles

    greggles I'll be back!

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    Thanks Miner.

    All is do is eyeball charts and look for share price movement on rising or improving volume off what looks to be an established base of support at a stock's lows.

    I hope others will join me in this thread by posting some charts. It's not hard. Each post has maybe taken five minutes from first eyeballing it to the finished post.
     
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  6. Miner

    Miner

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    Thanks mate.
    I honestly have gone to market and bought few books on charting to lift my level of knowledge. Thanks to one of the senior chartists on ASF . But with a slow learning curve for a young man like me, would take time to build up my own.
    Until then, I would be waiting for other chartists to step in to this thread. All I can see whatever you did worked very well.
    On the technical side, I noticed one of the senior guys in INR Ioneer website, with whom I have worked 9 years back when he was with BHP. That made me interested to study the stock.
     
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  7. explod

    explod explod

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    Thread with a lot of potential greggles, only just spotted. I follow a similar path as yourself. Will get onto something and pop back.
     
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  8. explod

    explod explod

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    I keep an eye on general news sites for recent good news on gold stocks in the main and then check it on the five year monthly before tuning in. This one I have just spotted in the news this morning. Made no decision yet but thought I'd add it here so that we could perhaps form collective views:-

    "
    Spectrum Metals (ASX: SPX)
    Spectrum Metals has intersected a new high-grade zone of gold mineralisation at its Penny West project in WA.

    The discovery was made about 150m north of the historic Penny West open pit where 121,000 of ore was mined grading 21.8g/t gold to produce 85,000oz of the precious metal.

    Named Penny North, drilling at the new zone returned 8m at 23g/t gold and 6.9g/t silver.

    Spectrum believes the high-grade section of the intersection was similar to mineralisation found at the historic Penny West lode."
    https://smallcaps.com.au/weekly-review-market-takes-chaotic-european-vacation/

    [​IMG]
     
  9. greggles

    greggles I'll be back!

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    Is the bottom in for iCar Asia (ICQ) at 11c? I should have posted this one yesterday but missed it.

    big.chart-ICQ.gif
     
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  10. Miner

    Miner

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    Whenever you publish the next time we see the price goes up by at least 10% to demonstrate you were 'bloody right' :). Great work and thanks though yet to capitalise your published information just because market smells it before hand.
    Could you please check MLX when you can.
     
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  11. explod

    explod explod

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    Should have got on that SPX, 11 cents today,

    ah well greggles should be plenty more lol twice.

    ;):thumbsdown:
     
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  12. debtfree

    debtfree

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    Still plenty of time to jump in before 11 cents @explod it's only 0.011 at the moment.
     
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  13. explod

    explod explod

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    Can see why I don't trade for a living debtfree.
     
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  14. greggles

    greggles I'll be back!

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    Hi Miner, MLX has had a rough time over the last 12 months, falling from just under $1 to 26c. Although I hope for the sake of its shareholders that it has reached bottom, it may well not have.

    It was looking OK during February while it was consolidating just above 35c, but late in the month the share price gapped down and it continues to look weak and vulnerable to further falls.

    I would keep an eye on it but I wouldn't call the bottom on MLX just yet.

    big.chart-MLX.gif
     
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  15. Miner

    Miner

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    Thanks @greggles. I recognise as the person who was a great advocate for MLX (whereas I have seen Nifty copper since Birla time has been rather poor and miserable to get higher utilisation or availability of its equipment) now has conceded being his own investment being frustrated and 'predicted' the price could fall 26 cents. So both of you are saying the same thing meaning not good for the holders.
     
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  16. Smurf1976

    Smurf1976

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    MLX bottomed at 23 cents in early 2009 so that could be a target this time.

    Just a thought looking at the chart not based on any serious analysis of the company etc.
     
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  17. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    i think, this thread requires a subheading "+ 3 qualifiers"


    MLX .0128 feb6th (ish) 2009 > 1.23 jan 12 2018 > recent low 0.26 = 76.4% (!fib!)

    many of these stocks decline 78-88% before finding a longerterm low
    MLX appears to have attempted an accumulation phase* followed by a typical gap down, likely a an exhaustion move going by the volume, both 13week and 21day money flows are extremely negative (no divergence) ....this extremity needs a fast turnaround or the stock is more likely to go into winter hibernation ....the question of a bottom is a relative exercise in "how long does the bottom play out?"

    if social media outlets are still chatting about this stock with "possibility" then likely the bottom will take a long time to play out (not withstanding the usual fake liquidity sponge), sentiment needs to exhaust too, not just as represented in the volume, it needs to be inline with people being disgusted with the decline and if a 76% decline is seen as a discounted bargain opportunity it's hardly a 'rejection' of the loss (todate)

    time is a significant component of a low, the question is not are you buying a low, the question is how long can you project that that low price needs to play out ......getting entrapped in a bargain low is very fashionable....

    the xgd/xjo/xao are in uber bulls at the moment so likely most boats are on lifting tides but those technical signals need to reflect that it's not just money washing thru eager bottom feeders for a decent swing higher

    if the 88% low succeeds then that'll make a new low or at least = feb 2009 low...when that occurs, if it occurs, it probably represents MLX as a new entity

    .... tradeable low (for a quick % rip)or winter low (trap)?

    *someone was buying all that distribution

    #ideas #2cworth

    mlx quicklook 160319.png
    data:incrediblecharts.com
     
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  18. rnr

    rnr

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    @Joules MM1

    MLX appears to have attempted an accumulation phase* followed by a typical gap down, likely a an exhaustion move going by the volume, both 13week and 21day money flows are extremely negative (no divergence) ....

    MLX re ASF 2019-03-16.png

    Bullish divergence is evident based on the RSI though!
     
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  19. Joules MM1

    Joules MM1 ....everything has an art

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    not sure the setting you have there, @rnr
    suffice: there is a sizeable double divergence previously which didnt amount to much, maybe a tiny tradeable bounce but in real time it's unlikely a pro trader would allowed it much room, the chart does not display negative divergence at peaks and that in itself is a warning that the RSI and alike are more likely to give a false positive

    mlx.png

    i think simply drawing a channel and awaiting a break-out of the channel, maybe use a "permission" cross-over (something like an 8/21 ema) and after tiny breakout above a previous peak with a stop immediately below that break out
     
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  20. rnr

    rnr

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    @Joules MM1

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts on this chart.

    I use the same settings as you for the RSI.

    The MA's on this chart are a 9 period SMA and a 45 period WMA.

    Cheers,
    Rob
     
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