The American Consumer

[BossMan.]

I am wondering if the strength of the American consumer is being hidden behind large amounts of credit card debt/unreported buy now pay later services which have taken off in the USA.

I am seriously considering taking out an inverse ETF position in a USA retail bear fund. I have a feeling we will see the lower-middle income consumer collapse in the coming months. Interested in other peoples thoughts.

Interesting article from early May on the Buy Now Pay Later firms in the USA, we saw the impact it had on the Australian consumer...

Americans Are Racking Up ‘Phantom Debt’ That Wall Street Can’t Track

Consumers have embraced ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ products that allow them to pay for purchases in installments, but it’s not clear how many of these loans are out there.

www.bloomberg.com

^ above link is with the "Gift this article" so hopefully it lets you read it. Interesting excerpt from it below:

 

[divs4ever]

I am wondering if the strength of the American consumer is being hidden behind large amounts of credit card debt/unreported buy now pay later services which have taken off in the USA.

I am seriously considering taking out an inverse ETF position in a USA retail bear fund. I have a feeling we will see the lower-middle income consumer collapse in the coming months. Interested in other peoples thoughts.

Interesting article from early May on the Buy Now Pay Later firms in the USA, we saw the impact it had on the Australian consumer...

Americans Are Racking Up ‘Phantom Debt’ That Wall Street Can’t Track

Consumers have embraced ‘Buy Now, Pay Later’ products that allow them to pay for purchases in installments, but it’s not clear how many of these loans are out there.

www.bloomberg.com

^ above link is with the "Gift this article" so hopefully it lets you read it. Interesting excerpt from it below:

View attachment 178091

that is the scenario i am seeing , similar to the lead-up to 2020 ( where i did very nicely in reverse index ETFs )

HOWEVER in 2020 various governments stepped in to limit the damage , will they do similar next time

can the various governments pile more ( taxpayer ) debt onto the outstanding taxpayer debt

this could turn unpleasantly messy because of the ripple effect of large numbers of bankrupted consumers ( especially in under-employment keeps rising )

also those reverse index ETFs do not keep their value for long because they rely on churning derivatives ( and those derivatives could blow up)

is there a better way to exploit the scenario you are seeing .if not keep your bet modest ( so you don't get a nasty burn

 

[divs4ever]

Why investors can’t afford to dismiss this macro headwind as trivial​

Why investors can’t afford to dismiss this macro headwind as trivial

It may be treated by most investors as too academic, but the risk from excess government spending is very real.

www.livewiremarkets.com

however the challenge is , how do you profit from it ( or at least avoid major capital loss )