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Tech/a on Technical Analysis

Discussion in 'Trading Strategies/Systems' started by tech/a, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. just_jay

    just_jay

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    Trying a different setup (aka not my usual BO HR).
    GWA.JPG
     
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  2. just_jay

    just_jay

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    So, high vol clusters without a corresponding downmove in price action can be seen as bullish, whereas high vol clusters and big moves down are very bearish.
     
  3. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Not quite that easy
    I’ll need more time to work through this
    Just about to train for 3 hrs so won’t get a chance tonight
     
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  4. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    I will have a chance to answer this tomorrow.

    VTG Going along nicely

    A27.gif
     
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  5. jjbinks

    jjbinks

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    Hi TA,

    Do you still trade DAX or FTSE Futures?
    Trying to try implement volume with technical signals into futures but finding it much harder than stocks, where I mainly look at break outs.
    I think intra day shorts are easier to trade if you can find them.

    Thanks
    JJBinks
     
  6. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    DAX JJ a couple of times a week
     
  7. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    So Lets talk volumes

    What constitutes volume of interest


    Volume 5 x or more than the average daily volume over a month.
    Or Under the same value. The bigger the better but anything well
    over our under a normal volume should be investigated.

    First thing we have to look at is where it is ------

    Context of Volume in a chart.


    (1) High volume and in particular if it is also supported by a gap and range
    indicates a great deal of effort to move in a particular direction. (Bullish OR bearish.)
    See labelled (1) This generally occurs after a longer period of consolidation.
    In The bar labelled (2) we can see a smaller testing consolidation after the strong
    move up. At the high of the range of the consolidation we can clearly (NOW) see
    accumulation as Supply is met with Strong buying. The next bar rises easily and if you follow
    the trend UP you'll notice the Dance of Volume as the stock rises and contraction of volume in
    consolidations. When you are in a move this is what you want to see.

    Look now at Bars (3,4,5,6) These bars show that supply is not taking part in the consolidation and until
    it does price will remain at levels around the high prior to consolidation. This will also occur in Bearish
    down moves of any depth.

    So this first CONTEXT is in a bullish initial move.

    Volume 1.gif

    The next is in a continuation of a move. Note that moves can move either bullishly OR bearishly WITHOUT
    extreme volume or range. The exercise here is to talk about those times when volume is evident and is
    in enough quantity for us to take immediate notice.
     
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  8. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Patterns
    and in particular tight and less than 20 periods (1 min to a Week)
    Play important roles in Volume and range either within OR breaking
    out of them.
    Look for and monitor tight consolidations.

    Continuation Volume

    Volume 2.gif


    Next

    " V " Bars and Patterns.
     
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  9. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Special Note

    Volume will often Pre empt a move in either direction particularly
    if there is little range. REVERSAL volume bars are at first difficult to spot.
    And can be mis judged as accumulation or distribution when in fact is EXHAUSTION.

    (Of either supply or Demand)

    This becomes more evident during the discussion next.
     
  10. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    "V" Bars and Patterns

    Much more to come on this topic as it is an important one.
    Not only found at Tops and Bottoms these patterns can and
    do occur in what appears to be middle of moves.

    Like a great deal of Volume anomalies you will often find a CATALYST

    When you see Excessive volume always check for a Catalyst.
    Often this wont appear for a few days --- initially leaving you
    without rhyme nor reason!

    Volume 3.gif
     
  11. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    All I have time for Today
    The Duck will return.
     
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  12. just_jay

    just_jay

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    @tech/a, I struggle to interpret every single bar, particularly once I have entered a trade. It becomes all the harder to attempt to read each bar objectively. There are often conflicting "story" bars next to one another when it comes to PA and volume analysis.

    In this chart below, you have pointed out a low volume day prior to "a.". However, on the day of "a.", volume increased a fair bit and price closed at the low. Both bars had a similiar range and I would have viewed bar "a." as bearish. Yet, the day after, there was a gap up, albeit on lower volume. I would still not have viewed this bar as particularly bullish. In such situations, are you simply waiting until you get a confirmation such as "b." before you read the "story" as bullish?
    Volume 1_edited.gif
     
  13. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Yes I totally understand
    Each bar is NOT a signal
    Each bar is an indication of what is happening
    You would be aware of the lack of supply and as you say
    Be suspicious of the next bar seeing supply return.

    But as the next bar gaps up on little volume you have confirmation that
    The last of the supply appears to be exhausted.

    Bar 2 would have been a buy.

    Hope this helps
     
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  14. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    just j
    Do you have a chart you would like to follow in real time?
     
  15. just_jay

    just_jay

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    Perhap a chart that ranges and one that has high vol today. GUD which has broken out of its range last week, but I didnt see the chart until today. I would place buy limit at 12.97 provided there is sufficient vol at close.GUD.JPG
     
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  16. just_jay

    just_jay

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    APA. Dont really know how to read this chart. 4 days ago, price seems to have bounced off the VCB from Aug'18. Price today closed off low around support at 9.82 and vol is fairly high. It's possible that it is at an area of supply (Sept - Oct 18) so those traders who bought then are panicking today and selling, but buying has also stepped in today to allow a close off the lows.
    APA0503.JPG
     
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  17. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    JJ Firstly GUD

    A29.gif

    A 28.gif
     
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  18. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    And APA

    A 30.gif

    A 31.gif
     
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  19. just_jay

    just_jay

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    Thanks @tech/a I'll try to apply these concepts to my future charts.
     
  20. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    JJ Follow up after yesterdays trading.

    I will continue with my thoughts on volume
    as I get more time in the thread it self.

    A32.gif

     
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