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TDL - TBG Diagnostics

Discussion in 'Stocks Q-Z' started by Kremmen, Nov 1, 2006.

  1. Kremmen

    Kremmen

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    Having hovered around $2.50-$3 for most of the last year, PGL appears to now be on a nice, gentle upward trend, sitting at about $3.50 today. I'm surprised I've not seen any other mention of them here.
     
  2. Kremmen

    Kremmen

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    Re: PGL - Progen Industries

    An announcement of substantial holding has been submitted by SAC Capital, a massive US/Antigua investment fund. They've accumulated 6.9% of PGL over the past few months, buying on both the ASX and NASDAQ. That's sure to push things upwards.
     
  3. thecountof

    thecountof

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    Re: PGL - Progen Industries

    I have heard the trials are looking to start for their bio product and all signs point to this being a $20 stock in 12 months.

    I was given the tip at $2.75 and bought in at $3.25.
     
  4. Kremmen

    Kremmen

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    Re: PGL - Progen Industries

    Might not take that long!

    PGLA has traded as high as US$8.74 on the NASDAQ today, currently US$7.73. I wonder how high it'll open today on our market?
     
  5. Ken

    Ken

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    Re: PGL - Progen Industries

    Capital raising for PGL has seen a sharp down turn in price...

    Anyone buying at the moment? The biotech daily boardroom radio person says they are a bargain at current prices.

    He also said the same thing about AVX early on.

    PGL could be the blue chipper of the biotechs....
     
  6. Ken

    Ken

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    Re: PGL - Progen Industries

    PGL looks like it could be up 6% in the US.

    Interesting one to watch at current prices.

    Long term the brokers are giving it good wraps I have read but its still 4 years away.
     
  7. Ken

    Ken

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    Re: PGL - Progen Industries

    What has happened to the market depth on this one?
    There's hardly any buyers at all!


    Its looking very thin all round.
     
  8. Ken

    Ken

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    Re: PGL - Progen Industries

    Industry news implies changes to commercialisation strategies highly relevant to
    PGL

    We attended the annual BIO conference held in Boston MA USA last week. More than
    20,000 industry professionals attended this year’s international convention with
    presentations by a panel of experts from the industry including some of the finest thoughtleaders,
    CEOs and other top executives. Three of the numerous presentations we attended
    were highly relevant to PGL and we remain confident the company is on the right track to
    commercialising its lead drug, PI-88.

    Global biotech partnering trends indicate PGL retaining maximum possible value of
    PI-88

    The forecast for 2007-08 for international biotech deals points towards either very earlystage
    deals or co-development at the later stage of development. This trend has largely
    occurred because smaller biotechs are retaining significant control over the development of
    their drug as well as much of the value. PGL is a clear case in point here and it seems that
    its international peers are following the same path. Consequently, pharma companies have
    been forced to become more flexible in their negotiations.

    Adopting new and innovative clinical trial designs to speed up development
    There is a trend towards creating new trial designs and clinical development programs that
    will accelerate clinical trials, improve the probability of a drug’s success, reduce costs and
    increase safety for patients. We believe PGL may consider adopting a new approach
    involving the drug:placebo ration which would further accelerate the development of PI-88.
    Buy 2 rating maintained based on $14.64 probability-weighted valuation

    Whilst we remain disappointed with the heavy discount placed on the issue price in the
    recent $74m capital raising, we maintain our Buy 2 rating. The various presentations we
    attended at the recent BIO conference all point to PGL behaving like a successful global
    biotech company. Our DCF probability-weighted valuation remains unchanged at $14.64.
    We remain confident that this valuation gap will narrow over the next 6-12 months as PGL
    embarks on the final stage of its commercialisation of PI-88.

    INVESTMENT DATA
    Share Price $5.86
    Issued Capital
    Ordinary Shares 59.3m
    Options 0.6m
    Fully Diluted 59.9m
    Market Capitalisation $351.0m
    52 Week Low/High $2.52 / $9.49
    Valuation $14.64
    Top 20 shareholders as at 30 June 2006 own
    63% of total shares on issue
    Year end Jun 06a 07f 08f 09f
    Revenue $m 1.7 0.9 0.0 0.0
    EBITDA $m -8.7 -16.9 -43.9 -38.2
    NPAT $m -7.6 -16.8 -39.5 -35.8
    EPS (adj) ¢ -18.8 -38.4 -90.7 -82.0
    EPS growth % na na na na
    PER x na na na na
    Data is normalised and fully diluted.
    Progen Pharmaceuticals (PGL) Buy 2
     
  9. Ken

    Ken

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    Re: PGL - Progen Industries

    Anyone else positive on PGL future?
    Is it the next blue chip biotech?

    The good thing about biotechs is that they tend to be avoided by most, so good value can be found.

    I believe there is still good value in PGL along with Avexa.
     
  10. Joe Blow

    Joe Blow Administrator Staff Member

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    Re: PGL - Progen Industries

    Ken, where is this information from?

    When quoting from other sources please provide either a link or mention specifically where the information came from.
     
  11. Ken

    Ken

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    Re: PGL - Progen Industries

    Sorry the information is from bell potter report.

    I believe the information to be a standard brokers report.
     
  12. killer

    killer

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    Re: PGL - Progen Industries

    Progen have announced they have been unsuccessful in the lung cancer trials but they have fast tracked FDA approval of the PI-88 for liver cancer. there has been a sharp downturn in price and major shareholders are pulling out. just wondering if anyone can shed some light on what is happening and what we may expect in the future?
     
  13. Miner

    Miner

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    Re: PGL - Progen Industries

    Dear Killer

    I visited ASX site and could not see the announcement of its lung cancer failure test. Could you pls send a link ?
    This share has been evaluated at $12 by BP and under constant buy. However the risk is always high.
    I think there must be a bad news. The SP came down at $2.6 today- lowest in this year.
    Sorry I do not have any tangible information to share.

    Regards
     
  14. Miner

    Miner

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    Re: PGL - Progen Industries

    Seems no one is making any noise on PGL.
    Recent report is Trial Phase 3 started with allowable by pass. Details are in company announcement. If successful - PGL will reach the roof and reverse is true as well.
    For some reason when every other share fell on Thursday - PGL kept up with a marginal value though.

    Any expert comments on its near future please ?

    Regards

    MIner
     
  15. Ken

    Ken

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    Re: PGL - Progen Industries

    Now is the time I am afraid where the smart or stupids investors will make the decisions that in 3-5 years time will see them for richer or for poorer.

    Whether they are in or out I think now is the time to decide.

    @ $2.68 i think there is no looking back.

    No hanging out for a bounce or a little positive run.

    Your either in for the long haul now or your out for good.

    IF PGL can get their drug to market bell potter is saying $14.00

    According to my calculations thats 522% above current prices.


    It is a stock that probly shouldnt take up a large percentage of a portfolio.

    But if you have some profits that you want to swing into a high risk, high reward stock PGL has to be up there with one of the best on the market.


    Phase 3 trials set to go. The question I ask is why are people exiting the stock when the finish line is so close.

    I have read there is a competitor in the market but also read this competitor does no interfere with Progens business operations or market.
     
  16. Miner

    Miner

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    Re: PGL - Progen Industries

    Under valuation by Bell Potters - whose confidence shaken ?
    Some facts : On 14 Sept 07 when PGL quoted at $3.58 this famous broker's competent research team mentioned this as a BUY with valuation $14.70.
    On 5 Nov 07 the same competent team maintained the valuation as $14.70 when the share was quoted $2.87. Recommendation BUY
    On 5 Dec 07 more competent people reviewed the previous research for all life science shares including PGL. It advised the valuation as $7.51 when quoted as $2.50. Speculative BUY.

    Fair game of research : isn't it ? Head you loose and Tail I win . :banghead:
    I have attached three reports for fun reading .

    Regards

    Disclaimer : this information is extracted from BP site and for dissemination only. I do have PGL share in my kitty as hot potato - can not swallo or vomit it . Use your own research and get professional advise based on your own circumstances.
     

    Attached Files:

  17. Ken

    Ken

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    Re: PGL - Progen Industries

    that is biotechs for you.

    this is why biotechs are not part of any port folio. there are better assets out there offering less risk, and uncertainty.


    all risks outlined in recent prospectus.

    money to be made on PGL like with any stock, but as an investor in biotechs you know you have to wait you time. it may reach $14 but that could be in 3-5 years.


    all depends if you want dividends, or consistant growth, it could all happen in a hurry for PGL.

    1000% gains in 1 day, all possible in this sector.

    thats the risks you take. risk reward.... what is it... please BLT, PSD, or any other biotech....
     
  18. Miner

    Miner

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    Re: PGL - Progen Industries

    Thanks Ken

    Your points are well taken and they are good.

    My point was not on the unpredictability of Bio tech shares but more on the about turn method of Bell Potter's analysis. I honestly fail to understand how a technical analysis based on facts, experience (mix of good and bad), access to a huge behind the scene intelligence, software, fully employed technical people the researches get 180 deg opposite.

    As a miner I do not know what is the difference between a gambler in a casino giving tips to win and so called stock analysts in reputed broking houses giving the same in the name of research, methodology, analysis bla bla.

    Regards
     
  19. Ken

    Ken

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    Re: PGL - Progen Industries

    Too many variables to be giving price targets for my liking.

    How can you value a stock with no .eps.

    I agree totally.
     
  20. Kremmen

    Kremmen

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    Re: PGL - Progen Industries

    Have a look at what's happening now. Having hit a low of $1.26 a couple of weeks ago, they are now $2 and buyers about 10:1.
     
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