Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Storm at Sea

8 March 2007
"Storm at Sea "

It seems appropriate to insert the description of an actual storm we encountered on our 10 year adventure in the open oceans on the ASX decades ago

The 3 letter codes may have changed over the ages but the hard lesson of diverging technical indicators should not be lost

This is particularly directed to the novice sea-cadet who for some unexplainable reason believes she’ll be right in the long term if onboard tall ships. It is also relevant to the seasoned veteran who after a magnificent season often forgets the principles of seamanship and lets his adrenalins rule.

Storm is that time all deep-sea yachtsmen must be prepared to face and sometimes without any warning. As we were sailing six tall ships all nearby in the ASX20 it made it possible to analyse the situation more closely afterwards.

The storm took place just south of New Zealand in an area not notorious for extremely fierce gales. However we were quite aware gales there may come suddenly and last for long periods. We weren’t concerned as each ship was toughly built and of heavy displacement. They were the pride of the ASX. Each and every broker in our network with research teams on many floors suggested the big three. BHP, NAB, and NCP and stressed a “diverse and balanced portfolio.”

Julius the only cadet on board asked

“What is the difference?”

Jack replied

“It’s a safety formula so that if any one or two get into trouble the other four will pull us through.” Henry quickly added

“Only if you have equal chips on all.”

We had opted for three industrials and three resources. Jack recommended BPC for its attractive price earning ratio and yield. Benji added WMC because he had fond memories. Henry added MIM as he considered her price a good value bet being the cheapest in the top 20. I abstained from joining the selection table as I saw my responsibility solely as the skipper and navigator.

We had already by now earned an excellent racing record and gained much ground, sailed through many spring gales and came through undamaged.

The NAB was far to the west and by chance the rest of our fleet were bunched together to the east.

On the 20th Dec 93 the chart of the NAB showed a bearish weather pattern and was first hit. There was no hint of a depression forming.

Yet with in 2 weeks the storm was establishing itself amongst the ships.

At midnight the storm caught us.

As the barometer plummeted (the white indicator, refer any chart later), violent wind gusts struck the yacht. All the sails were lowered and the boat put in the trough of the sea while we watched for any change. After one day the barometer had checked its fall and the wind’s mean easterly direction was unaltered. The torrential rainfall and screeching gusts all suggested we might be in the path of a revolving storm, or hurricane. The normal instructions for avoiding such storms could no longer be carried out, as the wind was too violent for any canvas to withstand.

The situation as it appeared at 1.00 am. in the middle watch was the very one we had studied most carefully. Not because it seemed likely, but because it was the worst possible position we could imagine for a sailing ship in the open sea.

I assessed that the loss of the tall mast was probable. In this lonely part of the ocean, 500 miles from America and with no engine, survival needed the preservation of all food and water. Nothing could be discarded to lighten the ship. I assessed that crew fatigue would be a danger should a breaking wave smash over the deck or cabin. Finally came the danger of crew being washed overboard. This seemed the greatest hazard of all.

It was clearly best to direct the end of the boat on to the sea to reduce the chance of a wave breaking over her. With such a strong crew I felt a helmsman could always be kept on deck. Even without sails the wind on the bare mast was driving us through the water at near maximum speed.

The night was black. My outlasting impression was noise. The shriek of the wind in the riggings, the din of the waves all blending into one devilish clamour and the pelting rain hammered against one’s head.

Moving around was not easy in these conditions. A novice helmsman could easily be caught off guard while shifting into position. Suddenly, a sea came pounding over the deck, filled the cockpit and slammed against the cabin. The ship was battened down so little water went below. Until one had been on deck for some time it was hard to believe that each succeeding wave would not wash over. If the helmsman could meet each wave squarely with the stern she would rise quietly with the sea and nothing but spray would come aboard.

The problem became chiefly a psychological one. As we were all quite experienced helmsmen by this stage no exceptional difficulty was found in steering the stern into the seas even in the dark. But it was decidedly frightening to hear the furious snarl of a wave breaking astern above the continuous roar of wind, rain, spray and waves hurling themselves at the boat.

I prayed earnestly for the dawn and went down below to look at the barometer. It was still falling steadily. There was a slight easing of the wind but it was still blowing a full gale. As man is a creature of daylight I felt that if we could just survive the night unharmed all will be well. However when dawn should have broken the angry darkness held its own.

Slowly the light seeped through the rain and spray. The dawn was much more frightening than the night. The sight of those huge waves building up astern was devastating. The surface took on a dull dirty and frothy white washing machine character. In the driving spray and rain one could scarcely see beyond the next crest even when on top of a wave.

I had been up all night and the sheer horror of looking at the seas I went below to check all the charts instruments, ate a block of chocolate and write up the log.

If on deck had felt overwhelmingly hostile, the cabin felt like a prison cell. The worst impression was one of utter helplessness. There nothing I could do except trust my instruments.

A spurt of water shot through the tiny peephole left for the helmsman to communicate with those below. I looked out and saw Jack signal me to come up. Conversation was impossible on deck but it was obvious he just wanted some support. He too was frightened by the sight and noise of the seas. Curiously, I found his anxiety reassuring. It did not seem to matter being afraid if a man of his calibre was feeling the same. In any case it felt better to be lending support to another. Strengthened in this way one could think and look around more objectively.

At 5.45 am. on the 25 May, the wind fell dead.

The sudden change was staggering. We had run into a patch of blue sky, colour sparkled, the rain dried up and the spray ceased to drive. On deck our voices were freed. Words no longer vanished in the storm.

“Look at that mountain of sea sir” Jack shouted, forgetting that his voice had not to compete with the elements,

‘It’s breaking in all directions at the top.”

The sea was hopelessly confused. Pinnacles of water would surge up without any form or rhythm. It seemed Mother Nature had developed a taste for modern art. One longed for some wind to steady her but dreaded the return of its overwhelming power. The boats motion was chaotic in the heavy air. Yet Henry and Ben below had somehow wedged and lashed themselves into their bunks. It takes a seaman to rest in such conditions. Every moment they could lie down strengthened our defence.

“I suppose we’re all right, sir,” said Jack doubtfully, “it really scared me to look at those huge curlers astern.”

“Yes, we’re all right,” I replied without much enthusiasm,

“But the real thing is what happens next.”

‘What does happen next, sir?”

‘We seem to be in the eye of a storm, Jack. The strongest wind comes after the calm.”

“I bet no one else has looked into the eye of storm of this size.

“What are we going to do now, sir?”

“Can she stand any more of this ****?”

“She’s stood it so far, Jack. We’ve done all we can. We’re all well trained and ready. There’s nothing left but to pray.” The urge to prey was deep and we were both silent for a minute.

“We’ll pull her through, sir.” warm hearted, loyal Jack said. No finer man could exist to share the pressure. At last there was colour and blue sky, but the mental relief that had come when the wind no longer blew, fizzled out like a spent rocket.

All around swirling, angry, black curtain walls of sea hemmed us in. Seven minutes of a pregnant pause seemed ages.

Savagely the wind pounced again.

It was still from the east. I struggled to check the course from my second compass. (Daily charts explained later) I was surprised to discover they both did not point in a different direction. We were still heading south with the wind astern. I thought of St. Jude and the hope of the hopeless as we sped further from land.

The clock clung to every minute, but at last an hour had passed. The instruments were pumping up and down vigorously as we dived and soared. My obsession with safety was instinctive. My passion for life, insatiable. The hope for some rising indicators never came. At times their fall was checked and then slowly fell again. This was a bitter disappointment. Although I thought the skipper should constantly be on the alert there was nothing I could do about anything and went below to write up the log.

Perhaps the depression is still deepening?

Bon Voyage and Gods' speed
Captain Chaza


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The Depression seems to be deepening to me

"Batten down the hatches" and prepare for the month of June

June rallies were "Almost Unkown" in Australia before the Poseidon Rally in June in the early 1970's however with tax playing a major role in everyones thinking ATM monent, together with the Demand to Sell stocks to meet one's Taxation obligations after such a good year
I fear it certainly does not smell like a June Rally to me this year unless we get a hefty shakeout first

Please note that Only the indexes like the XAO and XJO etc get away with free passage and 100% Taxation exemptions when it comes to sailing upon the ASX

You must admit the Indecies always looks great on how well they perform over the long term of multiple years

Talk about rotten luck !
We poor Yachties who have had a good year must sell nearly half our lot!!

Crikey! She can be so cruel and merciless to brave sailors in good times

Maybe it's now time to now start planning a new cruise 2007-2008?
Departing Monday 3rd July 2007

Salute and Gods Speed


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It's Great to remember the Past
Some of us Learn
Some of us Refuse to Learn

Be Careful my dear 1st Officer Ann
Be Very Very Careful in these horrible sea and weather conditions






BHP ( in NY time USD )BHP.png

X (US Steel)






and then there is TWTR

And Most Importantly
Our little Aussie Battler is battling against a very angry 200 day moving average

This means we will have to pay a lot more for all our streaming data /devices while we wait this horrible Storm to pass overhead

See you all in the soup



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A question for you @Captain_Chaza Sir! Way back all those many decades ago when all your charts were hand-drawn before the dawn of the internet. What were the indicators used to steer you through all those early storms? I can only imagine they would have been very basic with price, moving averages and possibly trailing percentage stops?
Ahoy @Captain_Chaza,

All great ships have their own prevailing wind and FCX-US would surely have its major course guided by the great and mighty Copper. I like to chart copper by the week with EOD and have done so for many years. Some time back I drew a pennant on a flagpole that resolved upward. I am sure the good Captain disapproves of doodling on the charts but it can amuse the less mighty and manages to while away the time when becalmed at sea!

Authority has it that a bullish pennant/flag breakout may rise to the heights of the original flagpole length.

Copper weekly 22.4.22.png

On the FCX chart I have suggested a possible point of abandoning ship, but I don't dive overboard the minute this point is hit, I wait until I see if the ship rights itself. Often it does so and may continue its journey at a decent rate of knots.

FCX US 22.4.22.png

Now, being but a simple crew member I need to take up my galley duty before further charts are possible.
Ahoy @Captain_Chaza

Sometimes when I am reading the charts, I need to climb the highest mast to look about with a powerful telescope to see what I can see, one does not want to run aground over unseen rocks or indeed biggish ice-cubes, these are only required for the whiskey.

Here we have the prevailing wind for AA over a 15 year daily chart, not so wonderful and grand as the mighty Copper, a bit of a lightweight in fact! I present to you the long term chart of Aluminium, high grade q7 of course, not your second rate alloy r7. Again, those silly doodles on the chart, but we all need hobbies!

I see fair winds ahead for the fair Aluminium, there could be some short term choppiness but not necessarily. I see a final figure of 5,270 before we may need to disembark.

Aluminium long term 22.4.22.png

Now bearing in mind the prevailing wind for AA, let's look at the six-year daily chart. Not much to see other than a suggestion for manning the lifeboats in preparation for abandonment should it be required.

AA long term 22.4.22.png

Now it is back to the galley for me, in preparation for my daughter's birthday celebrations today! d1kiiff-0516057d-3950-4a6a-85de-f91219095b80.gif
Seas seem to be pretty calm at this moment in time, alas it is only midnight in the Western Atlantic.

Captain of the good ship ASX was a bit worried though as all the deckhands are on holiday.

Eye of the storm?
Ahoy @Captain_Chaza

NEM is a challenge as it is a vessel of many masters. Gold, Copper, lead and Zinc seem to have kept it in an oscillation over the years. There doesn't appear to be a prevailing wind but many up and downdrafts to either keep its rises in check or limit its falls.

The chart gives me some small degree of optimism for the future but a cautionary tale in the short term. I rather fancy a vessel with an assortment of cargoes, it balances the load.

I feel for my swing trade doodle to eventuate then there would need to be some new and exciting cargo. We will need to watch out for the signals saying "we have lithium on board"! Or some such fashionable cargo.

NEM US 22.4.22.png

Now it is time for some icy rocks floating around in a tot of whisky.

To all those wonderful men and women who served this country so bravely, I salute you with profound gratitude for your service!
Ahoy Brave and Loyal Crew
I'm Sorry i can't edit my typo's but what the heck
Let's move on

When ever in doubt I always check if I am going NORTH or SOUTH

This is very important !
I'd even say it is "Life Changing!"

As we all know
GREEN Candlesticks indicate a NORTHERLY prevailing Wind and Sea favourable conditions
RED Candlesticks indicate a SOUTHERLY prevailing Wind and Sea favourable conditions

When you invert the VERTICAL Scale or Hang upside down from one of the masts
You will see amazing READINGS on the Charts

Is she heading NORTH ? or
Is she heading SOUTH ?

I present the All Ords (XAO) and the AWC in INVERTED vertical Scale

Is she going NORTH or SOUTH ?

The All Ordinaries

XAO dR.png

Is the XAO a buy or a Sell ?
and AWC

Is she heading North or South?

ALWAYS remember my dear 1st Officer Ann
RED candlesticks show a prevailing SOUTHERLY direction
GREEN Northerly

Good luck on the Open at Dawn
Nobody is reading this thread

AWC dR.png
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I hope those charts help?
If not
This is the normal charting technique with the aim of Sailing NORTH is to the top of the page

AWC D.png

The All ORDS
XAO d.png

Lock your self into your and bunks this week and make sure your Streaming services are all up to date is a great app I have found that directs you to where to watch all the movies and shows you want to watch FOX Netflix Stan Prime Apple Disney etc etc etc and even reminds you when some of them go FREE
and YES this app is FREE
Ahoy @Captain_Chaza

My charts don't carry those childhood primaries, they hold too much burden of indoctrination and bias. They can blind one to real movements sometimes up is down and vice versa as you have displayed. Now to the inverted AWC, I am fine at reading upside down and even backwards and in reading AWC upside down I see what appears to be a double top which in fact is a lovely bullish double bottom. I confess I missed that right side up! Then I notice my AWC is sitting right smack dab on top of the long term falling overhead trendline from 2007. To put the icing on the top I see my newly discovered toy, that I am having a high old time playing with, a lovely bullish volume spike right as the price plunged southward to its long term trendline. I know very well my good Captain thinks volume is piffle and junk, I must admit it was my position until very recently when all of a sudden I saw it as a vision from the depths, an epiphany if you will! Well, maybe a bit of a toy to fiddle with while the sea is becalmed. If I am wrong about AWC which is entirely possible, I shall just kick it to the curb!

As to the ASX well, that Sir, is your call.

AWC volumespike 22.4.22.png
I once believed like you that the World was flat
ie:The bottom of the chart was a Buy signal
and The top of the Chart is a Sell signal

After sailing around a bit I found that selling at the top of pages was not the best idea
but Buying was a better idea
I called it "The Good get Gooder'
But in reality I meant that the World was round as seen below
and Visa Versa at the bottoms of a page
The Doldrums.png
TWTR is a moot point now but all I shall say about Twatter is it is an excellent place to see where the important issues stand in this world with the number of followers a person has. First let's look at Greta Thunberg, that bitter and twisted face of Climate Change propaganda with around 5 million followers and then let's look at Kim Kardashian that heavyweight influencer in the makeup and fashion world at around 70 million followers. I think this says it all, we really couldn't give a flying duck about Climate Change but let's get the right colour lippy for the new season. I think all that poor, unfortunate, Greta has done is take down a whole lot of innocent kids with the belief the world is ending in what, eight years now? So why not just slit our wrists now and be done with it! The graph in the article is interesting, it coincides with the rise in the Climate Change agenda. Look, folks yes, the world is heating up, we are in a cycle coming away from the ice age, we are heating up, it happens regularly, not in our lifetimes of course but it is getting hotter. My best suggestion, don't buy near the coast, get a good Aircon and make sure there is plenty of coal to keep those turbines turning for the extra power we will need! Don't worry, the polar bears and penguins will adapt. Just think of all the grassy tundra areas we will have at the poles once the pesky ice is gone, all that grass is guaranteed to gobble up the CO2 in the atmosphere!

I don't feel guilty in the least for moving off the subject as we are in chat with all the other crazy opinions! :wheniwasaboy:
Ahoy @Captain_Chaza

As to the Aussie dollar, that is at once easy and yet complex. Where goes gold, so goes the Aussie, not in lockstep but certainly on the same path.

Gold $AU comparison 22.4.22.png

So the next more complex question, where goes gold?

I have been charting gold since the early naughties, but only on the Quarterly. I have left all my old lines in place on the chart in order to remember the journey we have taken together. Our good friend and fellow ICer @rederob was the first to alert me to the intrigues of gold. I read his gold posts quietly, only rarely asking a question. Later I went to Kitco where the real deal gold bug crazies hid out, that was fun as they didn't have a forum but a double thread which was totally unmoderated, such a rowdy and wild west it was! Sadly eventually the standard formula forum arrived with moderation that could squeeze the life juice out of a rock. Then it was Goldismoney, that was a lovely forum, the owner was a real gentleman much like @Joe Blow. Sadly like all good things they eventually go, it is no longer.

Back to business, where is gold going? On the quarterly chart, I am seeing a bearish rising wedge which may simply see a fallback to
the horizontal support line of 1780 or if that fails I have drawn a rising support line coming from 2015 heading for the 1500 level which may offer support for a more major fall. It has been an exciting and interesting journey with gold and a joy to chart.

Gold partway quarterly 22.4.22.png
Crikey !
I don't know why you are looking at GOLD

Concentrate on what they call
ie: ( Lithium) and the REE's

Why have anything else?
Am I Robinson Crusoe Here?

I would only get involved in GOLD when it is WEDDING Season In INDIA
Crikey !
I don't know why you are looking at GOLD

Concentrate on what they call
ie: ( Lithium) and the REE's

Why have anything else?
Am I Robinson Crusoe Here?

I would only get involved in GOLD when it is WEDDING Season In INDIA
I watch gold as it tells me where the Aussie dollar is going, where the $US is going and how inflation is travelling. Knowing where inflation is going tells me when there is likely to be a rate hike and all the ramifications of higher interest rates. It is far more than the narrow view of investing in a gold miner digging a hole in the ground and shouting EUREKA! However, I am not averse to buying the odd gold miner if it will make me some money, have done so in the past for some very decent returns. It also lets me know the right time to head on down to the pawnshop and check out their bling for a bit of Hardmoney investment!

I like to climb to the very top of the tallest mast and take a good long forward view of things with a high powered telescope. Gold tells me many secrets well beyond when it is gold season in India.
Have you seen how the Little Aussie Battler ( The AUD) has been performing in these Sea and Weather Conditions


Where is Your" GOLD " as a Safe Haven ?

We are All So Much Poorer!
This is a "Storm at Sea"
( Nowhere to Hide)
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Have you seen how the Little Aussie Battler ( The AUD) has been performing in these Sea and Weather Conditions

View attachment 140960

Where is Your" GOLD " as a Safe Haven ?

We are All So Much Poorer!
This is a "Storm at Sea"
( Nowhere to Hide)

now i am no sailor ( that was great-grandfather's job ) but one thing i did understand was out to sea ( a fair way from the coast ) was better than sailing near the coast , and sure there is nowhere to hide , but there are also fewer places to wreck on ( if your craft is sturdy )

and are we poorer , we still have those kilos of gold and silver and tonnes of iron and copper if we really have to , we have the resources to MAKE what we need