Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

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Ouch - a 5% drop today on a rather lousy financial updates. This Turkish outfit is proving rather expensive in the prelimary stage...not a big fan of the financials.

AQG is a pretty volatile share and seems to bump up and down in big swings - if one can time it they could be rewarded.

Some weird shuffling of shares going on with the directors at present too...must be the movement of CDI's or something :confused:

Logique - any thoughts?
 

Logique

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Nothing beyond what's already out there JTLP. Avoca also used to frustrate me as a holder, never quite got a grip on the price action drivers.

I would make the observation with TSX:ASR/ASX:AQG that there may have been an over-reaction to a good announcement, followed by an over-reaction to the downside.

In late March, Alacer announced a preliminary feasibility study had increased life-of-mine production by 182% at the Ҫӧpler gold-copper project in Turkey. The market liked this, so we saw shares at $10.50. But using the multiplier 0.4453, this was equivalent to Avoca at $4.67 = getting up there. At $8 that would be $3.56, a bit closer to the mark. So at some point buyers will reappear (imho).

Lets not forget, ASR/AQG is a producer:
http://finance.alphatrade.com/story/2011-05-12/CNW/201105121107CANADANWCANADAPR_C3935.html ...on 12 May 2011
"..First quarter produced 91,259 ounces, with 61,085 ounces related to Alacer Gold following the close of the merger. With the commissioning of the new Çöpler Mine in Turkey now having achieved commercial production and completion of the pre feasibility study for the sulphide ore expansion, and the operations in planned development of the mines in Australia, with Vine now being mined, Chalice being redeveloped and the expansion study of HBJ expected soon.."

The other thing is whether the ETFs have done some rebalancing, I noticed that GDXJ (Junior Gold Miners ETF) currently says 4% of it's fund holding is ASR/AQG.

At over $8 for a share - it's a big end of town plaything now, but that doesn't mean a time won't come when it will be about the buyers again.
 

Logique

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$8.74, and up +12% from last week's low. Buyers back in charge, let's look for some follow through. Can't see any mkt sensitive announcement today.
 

Logique

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Wow $10.84, that's what I call follow through. This one has followed the price of gold up.
 
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Wow $10.84, that's what I call follow through. This one has followed the price of gold up.

Yes I still hold (thankfully) - bit my tongue for bagging this merger :eek:

The Turkish Lira hitting the skids is probably helping to boost this one. Quite a smooth operation (fingers crossed). Hopefully it tracks gold a bit harder...always seems to be stuck in that bind that AVO was (never really increased as much as other goldies...but fell just the same...)
 

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$11.70, what a cracker, and the analysts seem to be on board too.

Easy to be wise after the event, but I can truthfully say, I always thought the merger with Anatolia was a positive over the medium to long term.
 
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What an absolute brick! Could this thing get smashed down any harder? Other goldies don't seem to cop it that bad?

Not the worst of the bunch - but down about 10% in the last 5 trading days. They did get a please explain from the ASX but said they knew nothing...

Gold.jpg

They have pretty ambitious targets and seem to be on track..I know gold is on the nose a bit but hmm...thoughts?
 
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Well somebody was in on this one...

Cash costs up slightly - gold output to be increased also.

Smashed by 8% today...this looks like it could go back to pre-merger levels
 
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Oh wow - this one is nearly out for the count. Back below pre-merger levels and just holding the $5 mark.

POG and other goldies haven't been punished as badly...must be war talks between Turkey and Syria.

Why oh why Avoca :banghead:
 
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Yikes...not a good day for AQG. They confirmed their guidance yesterday - we seem to have followed the Canadian lead of -9%.

Not sure what's to like about this? Takeover target maybe? I would hazard the cash costs coupled with Turkey based operations isn't helping...
 
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For what it's worth - AQG released their strategic update yesterday.

Fairly decent read but the main points for me were:

1 - The selling of their 49% stake in Frogs Leg for $171M
2 - The proposed capital distribution of $70M from the sale
3 - Dividends from CY 2014 onwards

It's a fairly decent read and the market certainly liked it yesterday...up 7.5%. Unfortunately today they didn't like it - and it was down 7%.

If they decide to go ahead with the $70M distribution - that's $70M/280M shares = 0.25 cents a share.
At current prices ($4.27) - that's a yield of 5.8%. Not bad.

Thoughts?

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20130211/pdf/42cy90n1gl5sml.pdf
 
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Somebody wants out in a hurry - over 5M changed hands over the last 2 days and down another 4% today - following 2 drops of 6%...and no please explain from the ASX?

See no reason for the drop unless something material is known by a major? Must surely be a juicy T/O target - wouldn't have to offer much at all really!
 
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Alacer one of two gold miners still in my portfolio,MML the other .

Goldies primed for a move one way or the other with various financial news coming from US this week.

:bounce:??
 
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