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So looking at the stock dumping on the half year results announcement from our current portfolio stock Freelancer Ltd (FLN). Was there something concerning ? Should we be selling out and join in with the selling crowd ?

I actually saw the stock was down 15% during the day and easily could have chickened out and sold with the crowd. But I am slowly starting to put more faith in my research and move away from the herd mentality and stop what I used to do in my younger days and even at the start of this portfolio and that is to panic buy and panic sell.

I think when we come across stocks with the potential for decade long growth and when we find them early enough it's better to stick with it's longer term progress by at least holding a very small stake. I have many times come across great businesses in my analysis but have sold out due to declining price action or a short term hiccup in it's revenues losing the opportunity to stay on the business or to ever get back on at a later date.

So how can I still operate this rules based trading portfolio and still be able to have some shares in a company like FLN without being chopped up like a rodent in a minefield mousetrap field being whipsawed in and out of the portfolio over and over until all trading capital is gone and I have to close down this portfolio for good or till I keep working in the grave to build up some capital to speculate ?

1627399728518.png

Thankfully I had started a longer term portfolio Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio, where I can operate like the legendary share market legends like Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet. These guys are not perfect and they have made mistakes in their careers picking the wrong stocks but they have a longer term horizon to let the stocks with potential to realise it over time. There will be short term market gyrations and bumps along the road but they are not phased by that as they can see the inner workings of the company's progress.

Generally I am a sucker for picking up stocks in the earliest stages of it's lifespan but the great mentor Peter Lynch for example has made so many 10+ baggers picking up well known brands like Dell computer company, now called Dell Technologies Inc and L'eggs which sold woman's pantyhose back in the day and having being taken over still exist as a brand with multiple products making profits for the parent company:
1627401050185.png

He noticed and picked up Dell Computers when they were starting to appear in homes and businesses so by then it was a well known brand and his wife gave him the idea of looking into L'eggs when she talked about how easy and convenient it was to pick up a pair of woman's pantyhose at the supermarket with the weekly groceries or at the checkout at a convenience store without having to ever talk to a sales assistant back in the day when the company and it's sales were taking off...
1627401422192.png

I'll talk more about these investing legends and how we can apply some of their thinking to today's markets as we continue to look for opportunities in these portfolios over time.

So the plan is: if today's selloff in FLN turns into something bigger I will sell the stock out of this portfolio and realise a trading loss. However I will move the shares over to the longer term portfolio or keep a minimum holding for that portfolio. So in that case, the dog Freelancer Ltd (FLN) and it's flees Escrow.com and Freightlancer will all be moved over and kept without pressure to sell out in the short term until the company continues in it's current growth trajectory over the years or starts falling apart in which case I may lose faith and cut the loss.

Everyone is different and there are great traders out there who can trade in and out of a stock even if there are losses in the short term without losing hope or to get back in promptly if the price starts surging higher. Even though I keep watchlists, notes etc, I find it difficult to keep track once I am out of a stock and if the price starts surging on a stock that I want to be in I usually wait for a better entry and miss out altogether.

Let's look at today's numbers that was announced. The company made record revenues in all fronts and that is what attracted to me to this company in the first place. The company earns it's revenues in US$ however and as can be seen from the results, the AUD/USD currency headwinds dragged the results down, which is usually a short term effect as currencies move around...

1627403924735.png
Escrow.com is a major contributing factor to the overall growth this company is experiencing:

1627404334211.png

It's got the hallmarks of an early stage disruptor like finding a PayPal, Ebay (owns gumtree) or AirBnB before they go mainstream in the media and all the funds, ETF's and mom and pop's want to buy into them for their blue chip income/retirement portfolio someday.

Just for comparison these two businesses combined has a market cap of about 1/60th the size of one of the biggest stories of asx Afterpay Ltd (APT) that is yet to make a profit. Talk to anyone in the investing/speculating circles and they'll be talking about it. I reckon each of the two main businesses in FLN is a leader in their own areas and Escrow.com is just leaping ahead, which is something to think about... And unlike Afterpay that's going for small margins on their small purchase retail customers, Escrow.com gets paid for big transactions involving when a jumbo jet or private jet is sold from one owner to another or that luxury car or the Rolex watch is sold from one owner to another. How about making a commission on every car sold on eBay USA ? Food for thoughts...

1627405416114.png
 
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My own uninformed view : trading or investing, you have to decide...
Mixing both will not work imho.
If trading,cut your losses, if investing,why even worry at a hipcup.
Great post @qldfrog and as always I value the opinion and guidance of other members.

So let me further explain what I was rambling on about with a chart of Freelancer Ltd (FLN) as an example in terms of being chopped up:

1627411596662.png

However, if I had done the research and have the conviction to hold through the volatility I would be happy to. But it would have to be in an appropriate portfolio where I am intentionally holding a stock through the various draw-downs and not changing a trading portfolio to bottom draw investing portfolio when things turn sour.

So looking at this trading portfolio, all will be sold in a share price declining situation including this one. Is there any stocks that I would hold with a long term view in this current trading portfolio and possibly be bought for the longer term portfolio?

Yes, only FLN would be held either as the current holding or partially sold minimum holding in the long term portfolio. And I love dividend paying stocks but we are talking local stocks with limited room to grow and dividends can be cut, so they'll only be traded.

This is a global business with two market leading positions in their respective categories each of which could become an Afterpay sized company. There's two of them, so we can even ignore any market cap contribution by the smaller businesses like freightlancer and newly acquired loadshift, which they are already integrating into the freight business:

1627412932445.png

1627412988523.png
 
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So looking at the stock dumping on the half year results announcement from our current portfolio stock Freelancer Ltd (FLN). Was there something concerning ? Should we be selling out and join in with the selling crowd ?

I actually saw the stock was down 15% during the day and easily could have chickened out and sold with the crowd. But I am slowly starting to put more faith in my research and move away from the herd mentality and stop what I used to do in my younger days and even at the start of this portfolio and that is to panic buy and panic sell.

I think when we come across stocks with the potential for decade long growth and when we find them early enough it's better to stick with it's longer term progress by at least holding a very small stake. I have many times come across great businesses in my analysis but have sold out due to declining price action or a short term hiccup in it's revenues losing the opportunity to stay on the business or to ever get back on at a later date.

So how can I still operate this rules based trading portfolio and still be able to have some shares in a company like FLN without being chopped up like a rodent in a minefield mousetrap field being whipsawed in and out of the portfolio over and over until all trading capital is gone and I have to close down this portfolio for good or till I keep working in the grave to build up some capital to speculate ?

View attachment 128032

Thankfully I had started a longer term portfolio Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio, where I can operate like the legendary share market legends like Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet. These guys are not perfect and they have made mistakes in their careers picking the wrong stocks but they have a longer term horizon to let the stocks with potential to realise it over time. There will be short term market gyrations and bumps along the road but they are not phased by that as they can see the inner workings of the company's progress.

Generally I am a sucker for picking up stocks in the earliest stages of it's lifespan but the great mentor Peter Lynch for example has made so many 10+ baggers picking up well known brands like Dell computer company, now called Dell Technologies Inc and L'eggs which sold woman's pantyhose back in the day and having being taken over still exist as a brand with multiple products making profits for the parent company:
View attachment 128034

He noticed and picked up Dell Computers when they were starting to appear in homes and businesses so by then it was a well known brand and his wife gave him the idea of looking into L'eggs when she talked about how easy and convenient it was to pick up a pair of woman's pantyhose at the supermarket with the weekly groceries or at the checkout at a convenience store without having to ever talk to a sales assistant back in the day when the company and it's sales were taking off...
View attachment 128035

I'll talk more about these investing legends and how we can apply some of their thinking to today's markets as we continue to look for opportunities in these portfolios over time.

So the plan is: if today's selloff in FLN turns into something bigger I will sell the stock out of this portfolio and realise a trading loss. However I will move the shares over to the longer term portfolio or keep a minimum holding for that portfolio. So in that case, the dog Freelancer Ltd (FLN) and it's flees Escrow.com and Freightlancer will all be moved over and kept without pressure to sell out in the short term until the company continues in it's current growth trajectory over the years or starts falling apart in which case I may lose faith and cut the loss.

Everyone is different and there are great traders out there who can trade in and out of a stock even if there are losses in the short term without losing hope or to get back in promptly if the price starts surging higher. Even though I keep watchlists, notes etc, I find it difficult to keep track once I am out of a stock and if the price starts surging on a stock that I want to be in I usually wait for a better entry and miss out altogether.

Let's look at today's numbers that was announced. The company made record revenues in all fronts and that is what attracted to me to this company in the first place. The company earns it's revenues in US$ however and as can be seen from the results, the AUD/USD currency headwinds dragged the results down, which is usually a short term effect as currencies move around...

View attachment 128036
Escrow.com is a major contributing factor to the overall growth this company is experiencing:

View attachment 128037

It's got the hallmarks of an early stage disruptor like finding a PayPal, Ebay (owns gumtree) or AirBnB before they go mainstream in the media and all the funds, ETF's and mom and pop's want to buy into them for their blue chip income/retirement portfolio someday.

Just for comparison these two businesses combined has a market cap of about 1/60th the size of one of the biggest stories of asx Afterpay Ltd (APT) that is yet to make a profit. Talk to anyone in the investing/speculating circles and they'll be talking about it. I reckon each of the two main businesses in FLN is a leader in their own areas and Escrow.com is just leaping ahead, which is something to think about... And unlike Afterpay that's going for small margins on their small purchase retail customers, Escrow.com gets paid for big transactions involving when a jumbo jet or private jet is sold from one owner to another or that luxury car or the Rolex watch is sold from one owner to another. How about making a commission on every car sold on eBay USA ? Food for thoughts...

View attachment 128040
Excellent calm narrative.
 
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Great post @qldfrog and as always I value the opinion and guidance of other members.

So let me further explain what I was rambling on about with a chart of Freelancer Ltd (FLN) as an example in terms of being chopped up:

View attachment 128042

However, if I had done the research and have the conviction to hold through the volatility I would be happy to. But it would have to be in an appropriate portfolio where I am intentionally holding a stock through the various draw-downs and not changing a trading portfolio to bottom draw investing portfolio when things turn sour.

So looking at this trading portfolio, all will be sold in a share price declining situation including this one. Is there any stocks that I would hold with a long term view in this current trading portfolio and possibly be bought for the longer term portfolio?

Yes, only FLN would be held either as the current holding or partially sold minimum holding in the long term portfolio. And I love dividend paying stocks but we are talking local stocks with limited room to grow and dividends can be cut, so they'll only be traded.

This is a global business with two market leading positions in their respective categories each of which could become an Afterpay sized company. There's two of them, so we can even ignore any market cap contribution by the smaller businesses like freightlancer and newly acquired loadshift, which they are already integrating into the freight business:

View attachment 128044

View attachment 128045
fully agree, no issue on the business analysis, but as part of the "Speculative portfolio" imho, it is an immediate sell ..or internal transfer to "aus_trader's WB trainroad" portfolio :)
 
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fully agree, no issue on the business analysis, but as part of the "Speculative portfolio" imho, it is an immediate sell ..or internal transfer to "aus_trader's WB trainroad" portfolio :)
I would also add that in a more stable market with economy churning around, we could me more tolerant with these
 
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I would also add that in a more stable market with economy churning around, we could me more tolerant with these
anyway, I am badly placed to give any sort of recommendation considering my system performance this month
 
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I've done both for a very long time. It can work for some. Done better short term trading though.
Yes it's good to do both if time and resources allow it.

So just to re-iterate this spec portfolio is a short to medium term trading portfolio and if the share price has a good run happy to hold for longer. However it cannot tolerate hiccups in the business and short term weakness in the share price. So that's one of the weaknesses of this portfolio because occasionally we come across stocks that are worthy of holding with a bit longer term horizon.

Great investing legends call them long term compounders and some examples include Warren Buffet's Coca Cola Company and Peter Lynch's stocks we talked about and many other well known multi-baggers like Ford Motors and General Electric that he invested in during his legendary performance as the portfolio manager of Magellan fund and later in his own private portfolios...

1627437654503.png
 
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fully agree, no issue on the business analysis, but as part of the "Speculative portfolio" imho, it is an immediate sell ..or internal transfer to "aus_trader's WB trainroad" portfolio :)
Done, very sad to have a stock leave the portfolio so quickly for a loss, but as I mentioned yesterday I was looking to exit if I saw more selling pressure today for FLN.

Closed Positions:
1627471067877.png

Immediately bought a smaller minimal holding for the Medium/Longer Term Stock Portfolio which can be left alone to withstand draw downs of 50% or more on the share price without losing any sleep as long as the business is doing well and continuing to grow on a longer term basis.
 
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We have a quiet achiever in this portfolio, it's a quiet achiever because the share price hasn't moved a penny while making good progress in the background. Lithium Australia NL (LIT)'s subsidiary is licensing Alkaline battery recycling process which is in addition to it's development of Li-Ion battery recycling that we have an interest in as a future company maker.

All is good as Alkaline batteries are plentiful in society and if the technology is developed and commercialised, it could become a nice revenue stream in the future. Multiple streams of revenue would certainly be better than one in it's distant future.

1627989986174.png
 
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We have a quiet achiever in this portfolio, it's a quiet achiever because the share price hasn't moved a penny while making good progress in the background. Lithium Australia NL (LIT)'s subsidiary is licensing Alkaline battery recycling process which is in addition to it's development of Li-Ion battery recycling that we have an interest in as a future company maker.

All is good as Alkaline batteries are plentiful in society and if the technology is developed and commercialised, it could become a nice revenue stream in the future. Multiple streams of revenue would certainly be better than one in it's distant future.

View attachment 128532
I added LIT a while back to the Frog investment portfolio with so far good outcomes indeed👍
 
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Further news out on LIT showing they have no problem getting funding for Research and Development of their technologies.

Also junior African Gold miner has been drilling day and night to prove up their reserves, now hitting 1million Oz :happy:

1628230234933.png
 
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I was keen to check out the ALK drill results after it came out of the trading halt. Initially was up but the market kept pushing the price down and I sold once I saw the prices was breaking to the downside. ALK was one of the Gold stocks on the asx that was bucking the trend while most were going down recently, but today I decided to let it go despite the slight bounce in Gold price.

Might be more developments to the Alkane story in terms of defining the Boda deposit, so will keep watch...

I am also keen to collaborate efforts to find ways to get better ROI on Gold stocks. Whether it's investing through the cycles (Gold spot price cycles or the company growth cycle) or to trade Gold stocks via some mechanical or systematic means are all possibilities. I am not the only one who struggles with Gold stocks, one of my mentors on this site (I consider anyone who has taught me invaluable lessons as my mentors) has also said he has struggled to conquer Gold stocks.

The other Gold stock has confirmed it's going ahead with the spin out of it's Li asset and will give us priority via preference shares to the new Li company to be listed on the asx and be called Leo Lithium Ltd...

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In other news, LIT was covered via a newsfeed recently:

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LIT's recent battery stock spin out Charger Metals NL (CHR) has done really well since listing nearly quadrupling in price. We should be happy as we have an interest in those Charger Metals Li projects as well as an interest in another Li stock Galan Lithium Ltd (GLN) that has gone gangbusters lately:

1629130521445.png

So rather than having a sense of FOMO, we should...

1629130653550.png

Closed:
1629130730299.png
 
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One of the negatives that has come out of the Covid and resulting restrictions and lockdowns is the increase in digital crime or cybersecurity threats...

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Individuals, companies and even governments have been targeted. It's not just financial threats that are at play, there is also online scams, identity theft, fraud, access of sensitive information and stealing of Intellectual Property (IP).

So I've been deep diving through the asx labyrinth looking for companies that are combatting this threat, hopefully benefitting from the digital fight against the criminals. After all in this portfolio, we are looking for companies doing the freedom fight with the intention of making money not operating as a Not-For-Profit (NFP) firm. Came across a few but the one that is added to the portfolio is also the hardest to pronounce. I get my tongue twisted saying the name of the company, so you guys and girls can work out how to pronounce the latest addition to the spec portfolio: Archtis Ltd (AR9).

It was mainly in the business of cloud computing based secure storage but it's recent merger that just completed that got me interested in this stock. AR9 has merged with cybersecurity and sensitive information protection company "Neucleus Cyber" that will complement their product/service offering and add value to their customers.

Quarterly numbers are really good for the company:

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Also being a small cap firm, it's producing quarter-on-quarter growth, which is nice to see:

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Recurring revenue is from some of the long term customers like the Australian Defense:

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Nucleus Cyber is contributing to the needs of companies to defend against the new cyber threats, below is an example of a biotech company that would do anything to protect their highly valuable IP and trade secrets:

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Open Portfolio:
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This reporting season has been a bit scary. Maybe some of the hidden financial stresses from the Covid affected companies are coming out this season, I also wrote in another thread...

There's been a few landmines during this report season with big gap downs and huge falls in some stocks once the reporting was published on the market. Too many -ve surprises to mention as the reporting has been running for a while

We can't predict these nasty surprises in advance, so if we are spared from from being kicked in the nuts this reporting season, we really have to count our lucky stars... 🔱

Other than a flash crash on A2B, that's recovering back now, I think we've been spared in this portfolio.

I'll just highlight a few financial results without any editing from my part, just to know that things are going along nicely. Instead of my own commentary which could be biased, I'll let the slides and any charts do the talking...

EPY:

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SHJ:

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1630125298469.png

Chart gapped up after reporting and broke out before bulling back...

1630125342229.png


Our latest addition AR9:

1630125413520.png
 
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This stock needs no introductions, we've been in and out of it just months earlier.

Based on the preliminary annual report, MLX rehabilitation seems complete. It's turned around from a big loss last year to a good profit this year...

1630494386133.png

We've had to endure a small loss from MLX earlier in the year when the trade didn't work out. But the reasons for buying is further supported by the company returning to profitability.

MLX has shed the heavy baggage it was carrying having sold the non core, loss making projects from it's portfolio. Back to it's profitable Tin mining operation in an environment where Tin price is doing really well...

1630495974770.png

I also mentioned that I was looking at buying the breakout in the MLX thread ( MLX - Metals X ), so was purchased just as it was doing so.

Open Portfolio:
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