- 25 December 2018
Keep an eye on the 28th Dec
SP500 Part 1 :
The next key turning date is the 28th Dec which could turn out to be Low. It would be wise to wait for this Cycle to roll in and a few days beforehand we should be able to determine if this date is setting up as Low in line with the Curve . From here we could be till the 6th Dec where Top is indicated so this is the first section of the Forecast that we are planning to trade . As outlined earlier it is very important to wait for the Cycle dates to come in and once that point has been qualified as either Top or Bottom we can then trade OUT of the Cycle date. In some cases I may be expecting a Top to come in on a particular date and it turns out to be a Low instead which can happen from time to time so by waiting a week or so for the turning point to materialize we can then confirm it is Top or Bottom placing us in a stronger and clearer position to match this point against previous movements. Through this process we are able to locate and position off strong timing dates where two or more time sequences converge in conjunction with other timing indicators . By waiting for the proper time we will be in a clearer position to determine both the likely duration and amplitude of the ensuing price move by examining past records . In the case of the SP500 we have had a sharp selloff in quite a short space of time and the Forecast indicates that we could continue down into the 28th Dec where Low is indicated so as there is only a week or so for this to play out it would be prudent to wait for this Cycle to run out and a few days beforehand we should be able to refine our calculations and set some strong price targets. You will save money and alleviate stress by remaining out of the market for another week or so and once the setup becomes clear and links up with previous movements we will be in a clearer position to determine the prevailing trend .
There is also two accompany chart pictures which breakdown and explain the recent swings. The two most important legs to study is the drop into the 25th Feb and the drop into the 17th June which bear similar technical characteristics . Notice the price move up into the 3rd Feb Top had two attempts at Top before breaking lower which matches the 14th Dec Top which also had two pushes at the Top before the ensuing decline . Both of these swings gapped down very heavily which also matches against the current pattern moving down . Swing No 1 dropped 10.4% in 22 days and Swing No 2 dropped 12.9% in 15 days which balances against the the time period for our 28th Dec projected Low . so by examining these three swings we can see that the declines were between 14 - 22 days with the 17th June being the closest match so there is a good chance that we could run out the same time period into the 28th Dec Low but we must wait for this move to play out . There may be an intraday opportunity if we get a counter trend Top movement on the 30 or 60 min chart but as the primary trend is geared down into the 28th it would be wise to only play the downside as any upside momentum will be limited and price amplitude small so you could look out for a counter trend Top setup to come in on the 30 and 60 min chart and look for price to trade lower off this point .
I have projected the previous two ranges off the 14th Dec Top which give us two downside price targets of 3671 which is 10.4% down and 3572 which is 12.9% down . The market may not touch these points exactly but they will provide a good framework to monitor as we move down into the 28th Dec Low and around that point we can see if the Cycle is running into any of these price points and linking up . The current move down is only around 7.3% so we are under the past two swings which would indicate that we still have further to fall .
2 Squares up from the 3491 Low = 3731 another target to watch
4 Squares down from Top = 3603 another important point to watch
Some other key downside levels to watch are 3773 3745 3685 so if we continue down into the 28th Dec we should look at these zones to see if they are lining up . If we do make Low on the 28th Dec we could be up till the 6th Jan where Top is indicated so as we are just concentrating on trading this section we have around a week in the trade . Previous campaigns saw an increase of 8 and 9.5% so if we do make low off the 28th there is a possibility of a run around this magnitude although it is only an indication and the most important consideration is Time as markets will reverse off these points irrespective of where price is situated .
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