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Simulated/Hypothetical trades

Discussion in 'Trading Strategies/Systems' started by pavilion103, Mar 14, 2011.

  1. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Have a shot yourself.
    Its not that hard.
     
  2. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    My take on it is that I would want to wait for confirmation after the first big up day on high volume (prior to this there were a couple of down days on very low volume - signalling no selling pressure?).

    The upthrust the next day could have proven to be bearish if the next day had fallen, closing near the low of the bar, on light volume signalling no demand.

    Today the price rose however on high volume and closed towards the high of the bar. This would mean that yesterday couldn't have been selling pressure because how could prices have risen the following day (today) if it was selling pressure?

    (the one thing I am unsure about is that it appears today was a 'test'. There was high volume today so would this mean that the test failed? Usually a test with low volume shows that there is little selling into the market). This would not be a sign of strength.

    How does this sound? (btw I would NOT enter)
     
  3. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Todays price action can be explained by this announcement.

    http://stocknessmonster.com/news-item?S=TRH&E=ASX&N=537950

    I too would be waiting for volume to settle.
    Today had a heap of effort for little result.
    If it climbs on low volume then thats a buy.
    If it drops on low volume then its for the watch list.

    I expect an inside day tomorrow.
     
  4. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    If it rises on low volume what does that suggest? That there is no selling pressure?
    What would a rise on HIGH volume suggest?

    Thanks,
    Matt
     
  5. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Lack of sellers.

    If high volume on a wide spread or a gap up then that could be renewed buying.
    But you really need a day of low volume after or before it to be able to really tell.

    Lets keep an eye on it and read it as it happens.
    My bet is an inside day on average volume compared to the last 3 days.
    Id be surprised if it took out the high and stayed there.
     
  6. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    How does this one look.

    There was a successful test (low volume) on 19/4. This one was followed by a fairly flat day and then an upday with narrow spread and low volume. Strength was confirmed on 27/4 with price gapping up on a high volume up day. Price broke into new territory today on a high volume, wide spread up bar.

    Is this a good one to enter? Could I have entered the day earlier (the first high volume up day after the successful test)? Or would that have been a dumb move with the overhead resistance. Is now potentially a good time to enter?

    ABY.jpg

    p.s. I am not using the Amibroker VSA analysis, merely using the chart as a better visual representation for VSA. I have already deleted parts of it to stop my confusion.
     
  7. toocool

    toocool

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    Ive been pretty close to buying Tradeguider but that has got me thinking..

    When is it expected out Tech ? if you know, and what will the advantages be over Tradeguider ?
     
  8. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    I have just shot off an email to Todd.
    Better get the answer from him.

    If hes around should have a reply by morning.
     
  9. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    The trade above hasn't reacted as I anticipated. A very high volume upthrust.

    I haven't worked on my stop strategies much yet and that is the next step for me. Would it be wise to exit immediately on this day? because it appears the previous day's strength is actually weakness.
    Or would I await further confirmation? i.e another down day

    ABY.jpg

    Thanks,
    Matt :)
     
  10. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Matt

    ABY


    Dont you love analysis.
    I see your looking at trading volume on breakout.
    you need to read the Tips and Tricks on breakouts.
    Ive been meaning to get around to adding to the thread with the topic of
    "Not all breakouts are equal"
    I ll use this chart as an example.

    While there were indications of weakness there were also indications of diminished supply. As volume grew with range you need to be wary of Supply coming in.

    Had you bought on the Breakaway gap (First one) which is a breakout in itself (another topic on breakouts) you could be out with a profit---selling the Pivot.

    Click to expand

    ABY.gif
     
  11. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    Thanks again Tech,

    I have found it difficult to know which breakout to enter on. The reason I didn't buy on the breakaway gap was due to the resistance overhead I would encounter.

    I've got this old mindset from before I heard a lot of your advice that I should NEVER buy if there is resistance potentially approaching.
     
  12. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Not NEVER.

    If resistance is near then there is a good chance that the move will at least pause.
    But resistance is often broken and they are the ones to be on.
    I will take larger positions on stocks which have no or far away resistance ahead.
    Ill take smaller positions on those where resistance is close or not very old.
    If it breaks that resistance then Im in AGAIN boots and all.

    ABY pivot was a leading indicator I note.
     
  13. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    Ok that clarifies things for me. Thanks

    What about this one below?

    I was analysing this one which I thought was interesting. I tried to analyse the background price action.
    There was an upthrust on the bar (with the red above it) followed by a down day.
    But this was followed by a number of down days on low volume (underlined in blue) indicating a lack of selling.
    This then rises on a higher volume bar (underlined in green).

    Could it have been a good move to buy on this bar (underlined in green)? Or was it important to wait for further confirmation?

    I have ONLY been entering of break of support/resistance, so I'm trying to identify times when I should enter before hand. In this example it appears the bar underlined in green confirmed the weakness in the background.

    SSC.png
     
  14. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Just received a reply from Todd.
    From exchanged emails later I feel his software will be more about practical application of VSA AND associated RELEVANT analysis,than Tradeguider's alert and explanation type software.
    Tradeguider is a great start and altered my trading.
    I really hope Todd's gives guys like me some real meat.

    Click to expand
    Todd Kruger.gif
     
  15. toocool

    toocool

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    Sounds very interesting indeed, although it does sound a little way off completion. :(

    I have been watching and reading alot of material on Tradeguider and was very close to buying it, with the main reason for not, was im going overseas for two months traveling from July so I was going to purchase it after getting home.

    Maybe by September when Im back it will be clearer about a market date for the software...
     
  16. Wysiwyg

    Wysiwyg Everyone wants money

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    I thought TradeGuider was by subscription and you can't actually buy the software outright?
     
  17. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    I have a couple of questions about this one:

    1. Is the stop too wide. I entered on the first bar the broke support. The initial stop is only 2.5% away from entry price but visually it looks like it is maybe too far away? Could I place it just above the support level (say, $6.88 which would make the initial stop 1.8% from entry price)?

    2. a. Is this a good trailing stop (1 tick above the pivot point reversal)?
    b. Alternatively, could I have exited on the actual day of the pivot point reversal or is that too soon?

    Some opinions would be much appreciated.

    Thanks,
    Matt

    IVC.png
     
  18. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    No you own it.
     
  19. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    With one like this, is my trailing stop good? Is it too early to exit on the first sign of weakness (a pattern like this) or should I wait until/if my trailing stop gets hit?

    NEN.png
     
  20. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Its an Island reversal--not good--
    My initial stop would be at the Pivot low so much wider.
    Running stops like you are with no real support at them will see you stopped out regularly.
    Id be suprised if you didnt bleed badly.
     
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