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Simulated/Hypothetical trades

Discussion in 'Trading Strategies/Systems' started by pavilion103, Mar 14, 2011.

  1. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Some analysis now we have further data.
    If short i would not be panicking.
    Click to expand.

    BCI.jpg
     
  2. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    What are people's thoughts on this one? I saw the enormous volume and maybe a triangle pattern?

    Volume Question.jpg
     
  3. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    How does this one look? I am trying to learn more about volume. Is this description accurate and this trade a potentially strong candidate?

    AKM.png
     
  4. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    And this one

    ELM.png
     
  5. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Selling its stuffed.
     
  6. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Getting better the only thing with this is the stop is too wide. Id be waiting for a lower risk entry. Plus will give a few more bars to see what its doing at this resistance where it looks like its gone through.

    I like it other than the Stop width.
     
  7. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Coming to resistance--cant tell if some hidden selling in there too early.
    Wait a few days.
     
  8. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    What are the signs that this one is coming into resistance?
     
  9. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    This one I don't understand. I entered in my sim after the big down day on high volume. To me it looked like there was an unsuccessful test 2 days prior to that which was followed by 2 down days with large spreads on very high volume.

    Looking through my notes the only thing I can think of is stopping volume. But on the down day it in fact closed on the low. I don't understand this. Is it a shake-out? or does that only occur on bad news?

    It does look, however, like the next 2 days were both tests on average volume, possibly meaning the selling strength is weak and it is likely to go back up?

    AIX - 21-3-2011.jpg
     
  10. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    This.

    Resistance.gif
     
  11. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Your doing it again!
    Your looking at a single signal WITHOUT confirmation from the next bar.

    You cant tell what a bar is until it has been confirmed.
    You CAN anticipate what it COULD be but thats it.

    The third bar has been confirmed as exhaustion by the next 2 bars
    The obvious stop is the low of the exhaustion bar.
    There is close by over head resistance so this trade has limited upside. about 10-15c!
    Not one Id consider.

    Although good practice for your analysis.
     
  12. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    Look in more detail of the price action 3 days ago (the day that closed at $1.81). The majority of the volume was at the closing auction, and it only closed there because some silly fund manager needed to off load their holding at 4:10pm that day for whatever reason (e.g. rebalancing their portfolio).

    Unless the market rolls over violently, AIX will go back up towards $1.95 in no time.
     
  13. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    How can you tell that is what happened? Is there anywhere to look that sort of stuff up or you just know from when it happened?
    Are those the types of things that I need to be aware of as they happen?

    Thanks
     
  14. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    If I was to enter one like this would I put the stop around $1.85, just below the support line that I drew?
     
  15. skc

    skc Goldmember

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    Just look at the lower timeframe chart and you will see that the last trade at 3:59 was $1.845, then in the closing auction a large volume (670K) went through at $1.81. So someone wanted out on that day with fairly consistent selling, and did a dump to end the day on the low for good measure. You can also see that from the course of sale. In fact the selling probably started the day before.

    The next 3 days there were no such volume or selling pressure so I expect the price to float back towards where it was before 16 Mar. Having said that there is no guarantee and may be the seller hasn't finished, and will offload only on Wednesdays and Thursdays...

    If I must trade this today I would put the stop at $1.825 which is the low of the bar yesterday. But like Tech/A said the most I would aim for is $1.95 which is hardly worth the effort... so no trade imo.
     
  16. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    I've got a couple of charts here. This one has gone up but the last up day had a narrow spread and struggled to go higher. Does this suggest a lack of buying?

    RMS.png

    This second one gapped up but closed low the day down after a high volume day the previous day. Does this suggest that much of the volume on the previous day wasn't actually buying strength? A bearish sign?

    ELM.png
     
  17. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    RMS

    Yes but doesn't indicate a change in sentiment --I think this will pause.
    Pull back a bit--consolidate over a few days--not a deep pullback--that would be sen as a reversal.

    ELM

    Has reversed at resistance --as noted earlier--pivot point reversal
    This is weaker than RMS.
     
  18. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    This is the one that I'd posted previously. ELM. See comments on the chart for reasons for the entry. Now that it has broken through the resistance level would this be a good time to add to the position?
    I also note that it gapped up on high volume and finished at the high of the bar. Surely a bullish sign?

    ELM -21-3-2011 - entry.jpg
     
  19. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    btw, orange = support, red = stop loss
    Is the initial stop much too far away from the entry (or the support line even)?
     
  20. pavilion103

    pavilion103

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    Is this another opportunity to add to the position? After gapping up on high volume for consecutive days it has tested the downside (into the previous day's high volume area) and then closed on the high). Is it a good or bad sign that it did this on high volume?

    Did the best opportunity to add to it actually come 2 days ago on 23/3/2011?

    ICN - 21-3-2011 - entry.png
     
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