Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

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Hello you amazing and wonderful people, i do hope you have had a pleasant week and are looking forward to the weekend.

I please wondered how really experienced investors like Warren Buffett know when to add to their holding for instance increasing the size of his position in Apple. I do alot of research into the company, looking at its annual accounts, how the company works, its market share for instance. Does Warren Buffett for instance possibly take note of recent quarterly profits and news in making his decision to top-up please? Further or how does some of you investors kindly know when to top-up after you have done alot of initial research, i know there is no crystal ball to know how well a company is performing, but does anyone kindly have any indicators please to increase the chance of success?

Thank you very much for your time and for reading my post. I would be forever grateful and thankful for any advice or support you can give. Take care and sending you lots of good wishes. Hope you have a lovely weekend.
 
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first of all Warren has a LOT of experience in both business and investing ( and analysis ) running and insurance ( and investment company ) does that , because he has several financial needs to fill as part of Berkshire

second over the decades Warren has managed to recruit some talented people ( not just Charlie Munger ) even if that talent does not stay the course , ideas flourish , you can bet he picked up the odd wisdom from the staff

now one thing i do ( in my own quirky way ) is top up ( accumulate ) but the trick is to accumulate the GOOD stocks , having a tough time ( or conversely clearly on the rocket ship to the stars ) , and avoid the cheap stocks that are troubled and dysfunctional ( like say my misadventure into HIL ) ( KOV looks to be coming good , but HIL is clearly in need of more than one miracle )

so maybe looking at top up strategies would be timely , Warren prefers the 'blood in the street ' strategy but are there others

what about adding to a holding when the target company makes a pivotal move say WES where i added to AFTER the divestment of COL , but added TUA AFTER the TPG demerger ( SO FAR both look like the correct choices ) ( i also added S32 after the BHP spin-off , and reduced BHP a little )

i normally assess an 'acceptable price ' for top up but picking the correct target company is the key ( i have plenty of picks that so far look to be unfortunate )

one thing to microscope ( as best you can ) is management , there are some red flags to watch for , one is the 'rockstar ' ( ridiculously over-qualified , on paper for a small/mid cap ) import , and the other is the one with a string of companies and moderate histories while the import worked there , harder to judge is the import with a history of working in taken-over companies , ( is he there to improve the business or just pretty it up for sale ).

every company is different , and sometimes those NASTY short-side analysts have solid concerns .. i remember a Bell Potter analysis that persuaded me to exit AMP months before the Hayne Royal Commission , suggesting AMP was heading for problems with government superannuation changes put forward BEFORE the Hayne Royal Commission started .

cheers
 
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Thank you so much divs4ever for your detailed reply which i found enormously helpful you are a wonderful and amazing human.

I think being careful to top-up the good stocks having a rough time is of critical importance. I think your comments are very clever regarding adding to a company after it has made a pivotal move and i agree picking the correct target company is very important. I think thats very amazing advice also to review the management and what their motives are.

I really appreciate your advice on this divs4ever its helpful now having some further input on when to top-up certain stocks. Thank you so much for your time you have been a star, i really appreciate all your posts. You have helped me very much on my investing journey and for that i will always be forever grateful for.
 
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Thank you so much divs4ever for your detailed reply which i found enormously helpful you are a wonderful and amazing human.

I think being careful to top-up the good stocks having a rough time is of critical importance. I think your comments are very clever regarding adding to a company after it has made a pivotal move and i agree picking the correct target company is very important. I think thats very amazing advice also to review the management and what their motives are.

I really appreciate your advice on this divs4ever its helpful now having some further input on when to top-up certain stocks. Thank you so much for your time you have been a star, i really appreciate all your posts. You have helped me very much on my investing journey and for that i will always be forever grateful for.
please remember those two little words .. SO FAR

and i am ready to change if the wind blows cold unexpectedly , i don't automatically sell , sometimes those 'frights ' are a change for the better ( mid/long term ) , but only experience ( and gut feeling ) are a good guide

further to my post above let's look at the WOW , now i inherited a large holding ( for me ) of WOW in mid 2011 , added a few extras ( plus participating in the DRP ) in October 2011 and a few more in March 2015 ,

now about then WOW started having activist shareholder issues which in my opinion they continually fumbled badly

so by December 2017 i sold down quite a few , a few more in June 2018 , a BIG chunk of the holding in May 2019 , and most of the rest January 2020 to the extent i had sold down more than 90% of the holding ( despite still participating in the DRP , but might decide to stop participating at the end of the year )

during that time WOW divested SCP ( which i participate in the DRP ) in December 2012 added some more ( tripled the holding ) September 2013 , reduced the holding ( to rescue the investment cash ) in October 2017 and on it grows via the DRP

in July 2021 WOW divested EDV ( instead of putting on the $1 poker machine limit earlier ) and i haven't added to or reduced that holding ... BUT WOW made such a drama out of the EDV split , that in January 2020 i put a fair chunk of cash into HPI ( a rival to EDV ) and YES it was part of the proceeds from the WOW sell-down proceeds that month

eventually the global markets are going to meltdown and then all this activity will face the acid test
 
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