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Santa Rally 2022

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so here we are , roughly a week's trading left before the Christmas New Year breaks ( depending whether the market closes early on Friday 23 rd )

investing.com has the ASX SPI futures in negative territory ( so far )

and both Commsec and Bell Potter suggest their analysts have already gone on their Xmas break , so one might assume some bigger professional clients have also gone on vacation

leaving the small traders and investors to actually have some influence in market moves

now normally i can get some interesting buys ( and less often sales ) done in the next month ( actually right up to Australia Day ) BUT will this year be 'normal '

to give some sort of hints watch the 'market maker' bids/offers on popular ETFs ( if they stay relatively normal or shrink and shrink back that extra cent from the buying action )

expect SMSF folks having a proportionately bigger influence on the market , will they cherry-pick the large/mid caps , or veer toward LICs and ETFs this year

feel free to add a poll if so inclined

good luck everyone
 
In my opinion, the current data does not indicate a last minute upward rally. There is still too much uncertainty and no indication that markets have reached the bottom floor. Bargain hunters and FOMO will probably test with small purchased, but not enough to show up as a decent rally.

I believe that most buyers are waiting to see what the new year will bring.
 
so here we are , roughly a week's trading left before the Christmas New Year breaks ( depending whether the market closes early on Friday 23 rd )

investing.com has the ASX SPI futures in negative territory ( so far )

and both Commsec and Bell Potter suggest their analysts have already gone on their Xmas break , so one might assume some bigger professional clients have also gone on vacation

leaving the small traders and investors to actually have some influence in market moves

now normally i can get some interesting buys ( and less often sales ) done in the next month ( actually right up to Australia Day ) BUT will this year be 'normal '

to give some sort of hints watch the 'market maker' bids/offers on popular ETFs ( if they stay relatively normal or shrink and shrink back that extra cent from the buying action )

expect SMSF folks having a proportionately bigger influence on the market , will they cherry-pick the large/mid caps , or veer toward LICs and ETFs this year

feel free to add a poll if so inclined

good luck everyone
Hello ? divs4ever
rcw1 is very hopeful that a large lad with a flowing long white beard carted around in a sleigh ? being pulled by reindeer looking animals yelling Ho Ho Ho; will call in on the 25th of December 2022 … rain, hail or shine …

If the lad don’t pull up at divs4ever normal place of abode make sure you let rcw1 know so that he can assist in rectifying the situation irrespective of whether the divs4ever has been naughty or not …

rcw1 crystal ball reveals a happy market with smorgasbord full of opportunity, if one is patient and most careful but confident and bold ….

Have a nice and happy Christmas and prosperous new year. Oh the joy of it all …

Kind regards
rcw1
 
In my opinion, the current data does not indicate a last minute upward rally. There is still too much uncertainty and no indication that markets have reached the bottom floor. Bargain hunters and FOMO will probably test with small purchased, but not enough to show up as a decent rally.

I believe that most buyers are waiting to see what the new year will bring.
i am thinking SMSF folk ( and the grandparents that put a few shares in trust for the grandchildren) to have some say

members like KevinBB who invest at predetermined times rather than try to time that extra discount ,

a couple of stalled take-overs ( for instance BHP trying for OZL ) will keep some cash on hold

i will do what i can to help the bargain-hunters to look good

i can't see good news coming out of Europe over the next 3 months ( nor much truth from the US )

i notice a wide diversity of positions from the active strategy LIC managers everything from 50% plus cash , to very small cash reserves , it will be interesting to see how they perform with the individual strategies
 
Does anyone know how often the Santa rally failed to eventuate over the last 20 years?
Hello Knobby22,
According to Investopedia:
  • Historical stock market performance over the last two decades (from 2002-2021) shows just a small positive average return (+0.385%) for the week leading up to Christmas.

Have a safe and happy Christmas and prosperous new year.

Kind regards
rcw1
 
Does anyone know how often the Santa rally failed to eventuate over the last 20 years?
Don't know but I do see some parallels to 2018 when a Fed announcement killed an already struggling market in December.

For the XAO the 24th of December was a major low, followed by a rally that lasted through to the February 2020 pandemic-related top.
 
Hello Knobby22,
According to Investopedia:
  • Historical stock market performance over the last two decades (from 2002-2021) shows just a small positive average return (+0.385%) for the week leading up to Christmas.

Have a safe and happy Christmas and prosperous new year.

Kind regards
rcw1
Perhaps poor old Santa has been de-railed this year, well according to my watchlist he hasn't even made it to his sled !!!!
 
part of the Santa Rally demise , might be superannuation system investment is now spread over most of the year , no longer are June and December pivotal months for retail investment decisions
 
Another simpler reason of santa absence this year:
This is the last session in the us, not reflected yet
 

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