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S&P 500 Seasonal Low

Discussion in 'International Markets' started by Student of Gann, Dec 25, 2018.

  1. Student of Gann

    Student of Gann

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    Hello and happy Christmas to all. Looks like a Seasonal Low is in place on the The SP500 at 2351 . Looking to buy with a 5 point stop.
     
  2. Student of Gann

    Student of Gann

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    If the 24th December turns out to be Low the primary trend should continue up till approx the 23rd April 2019 barring a few intermediate reactions along the way. April is a seasonal time for highs including 26th April 2010 which was 413 days from 8th March Low. 18th April 2016 which was 72 days from 7th February Low. 2nd April 2012 which was 180 degrees from 2nd October Low then the 11th April 1998 proceeding the 87 Low which reinforces the probability of a Market Top around this point.
     
    sptrawler likes this.
  3. tech/a

    tech/a No Ordinary Duck

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    Watching with interest.
     
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  4. minwa

    minwa

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    5 point stop for a intermediate/long term trade. Very very brave.

    I hope you didn't buy as it spiked down to 2310's.
     
  5. Student of Gann

    Student of Gann

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    Thanks I am using the interactive yahoo chart for this analysis and I can't see the spike low at 2310 . I scaled down to a 30 minute chart and it shows the lowest bar at 2351.79 at 11.45US time. The 24th December completes an intermediate time cycle and also aligns with a mathematical sequence measured between three points the 9th March 2009 Low the 15th October 2014 low and the current Low the 24th December. From a price perspective if this level holds its 3.5 times the base of 672 and the price point of 2351 is 180 degrees opposite the price point of 1812 7th February 2016 Low and 120 degrees in longitude to the 672 March 2009 Low. Looking at the
    Bull campaign which commenced at the 672 March Low there is one smaller correction in the primary trend where price ran down from 1370 to 1074 a drop of 296 points then the second and more prominent drop occurred from 18th March 2015 Top 2134 to 7th February 2016 1812 a drop of 322 points in 260 days compared with the current correction of 589 points in 99 days which is a 1.8 times larger in price and 1/3 shorter in time measured against the previous correction. Sometimes I will look at the trend on a monthly chart in particular the campaign beginning in 2009 and look for an imbalance in time or price and compare each rally or correction against the previous to get a line on where the market is.
     
  6. gartley

    gartley

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    Futures down 16pts, looks like it will be a quick trade
     
  7. sptrawler

    sptrawler

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    There is a lot to be admired, in a person who states their belief and the reason behind it. IMO
     
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  8. $20shoes

    $20shoes

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    This is the count im working from on the S&P500. As Gartley mentioned, take the longer term chart with a grain of salt, but I like the impulsive nature of the century long bull run - it seems to lend itself to a 5 wave structure. Grand Super cycle 1 and 3 are extended , so Grand Super Cycle Wave 5 will not be.

    In this count we are still to make new all time highs after Wave 4 completes. But that would need to be the final wave in this bull run IMO.

    SP500weekly2018-12-26 20-03-46.jpg

    SP500LT2018-12-26 19-48-58.jpg
     
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  9. gartley

    gartley

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    Hi $20shoes, nice job on the chart annotations)). Mentioned before that IMO hard to apply long term counts. In terms of my time studies I was expecting another leg up to into the middle of 2019, however I don't think it will come to pass, especially given the magnitude of 76 Year Callippic Cycle in play. With these cycles when a larger cycle starts to exerts itself, then smaller degree cycles end up turning earlier than expected.
    Also have looked at long term charts of other markets to see if there was any confluence with what is happening in the stock market. I came across this chart of UK property prices dating back to the mid 1950's. What stood out in this chart, was the a perfectly now completed impulse wave exhibiting a nice contracting triangle w4. That in itself is the biggest clue that property markets have completed a very historic top and will be in a bear market for quite some years to come. However one has to wonder, if property markets have just started a big bear, then most likely the one that has started in equities will be of similar degree.
     

    Attached Files:

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  10. $20shoes

    $20shoes

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    Thanks Gartley. That's a very interesting chart. Thanks for sharing. Either way we see that the market correction as substantial. Unfortunately
     
  11. MrChow

    MrChow

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    SP500 intraday bear markets between the closing range of -19% and -33% since WW2:

    -19, -19, -19, -20, -20, -22, -26, -27, -33

    More common to rebound straight away than to hover a bit further.

    SP500 has never fallen further than -33% without a recession within 12 months.
     
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  12. Student of Gann

    Student of Gann

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    Using the 24th December as the 0 Degree point the short term trend should continue to run up to approx the 16th January 2019 where time cycle indicates Top. There is also another lower magnitude cycle which comes in on the 10th January so will assess position of the trend around these two points.
     
  13. MrChow

    MrChow

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    Agree with the general premise of significant recovery within months.
     
  14. Student of Gann

    Student of Gann

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    There are two timing models in play at the moment. The first scenario is the trend will continue to move up to the 16th January 2019 which is a more dominant cycle and within this model will see a minor reaction against the trend on Wednesday the 2nd January which could turn out to be a minor high or a small counter trend reaction within the structure . Once we approach this date the position of the market will be clear .
    The second cycle indicates Top on the 10th January 2019 which is six days shorter than the dominant cycle listed above with a minor move within the structure indicated on the 8th January which will become apparent as we approach this date.

    The first model gives a 21 day time cycle from low to high containing one minor reaction date.

    The second model gives a 15 day time cycle from low to high contain one minor reaction date.
     
  15. Student of Gann

    Student of Gann

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    From 2467 high price could pullback to three price points 2441 2406 or 2377 before resumption of trend. 2467 is trine or 180 degrees in longitude from 2346 low so we should see a price pullback before that level is broken.
     
  16. MrChow

    MrChow

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    Out of the 9 bear markets since WW2 that failed to reach -30%, the bottom to top recovery time was within the next calendar year 8 out of 9 times.
     
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2018
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  17. Student of Gann

    Student of Gann

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    aaa.png
     
  18. Student of Gann

    Student of Gann

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    28th December 2519 should be minor high for a reaction down to the 2nd january before resumption of trend.
     
  19. Student of Gann

    Student of Gann

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    If price moves down from 2519 into 2nd January minor low there are two Natural price levels to monitor. 2496 and 2441 . The range from 2346 to 2519 is 173 points with the midpoint at 2432 nine points under the second price target . The first target is 23 points below the 2519 minor top and the second target at 2441 is 78 points below the 2519 minor top. By using the 2519 I have constructed a descending octave structure 2519 / 8 = 314.87 . 2519 - 314.87 = 2204 which gives us an inner octave range of 2519 - 2204 = 315 points / 2 = 157.5 + 2204 = 2361.5 which gives us another inner octave range of 2519 - 2361 with gravity centre at 2440 which ties in with our second price target. If 2496 is broken price could test 2441.
     
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  20. MrChow

    MrChow

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    Just 18 basis point spread between the 10 year and 3 month bond.

    So all it would take is one Fed hike for curve inversion.

    In the majority of cases of that occuring the market top occurs within +/- 2 months.
     
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