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Russian stock market opens March 24 2022 first time since start of war

bigdog

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The MOEX Russia Index reversed early losses to close higher at 2,227, rebounding from yesterday’s drop as investors continued to assess the outlook for the Russian economy and the CBR’s guidance.

Weekly CPI data pointed to the first increase in consumer prices since May, easing expectations of further rate cuts by the central bank.

Still, the tech sector pared steep losses and closed sharply higher, with Yandex and M Video gaining 3.5% and 5.5%, respectively.

Despite the stronger ruble, the rebound in commodity prices lifted mining stocks, led by Polymetal and Petropavlovsk.

In the meantime, Gazprom added 1.3% as investors continued to assess the outlook of gas supply to Europe.

Last week, the state-backed giant cancelled dividend payments from a record-setting 2021, plunging nearly 40% and sending the MOEX index into 2-month lows.

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bigdog

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The MOEX Russia index dropped 0.2% to close at 2,223 on Friday, erasing last session’s slight increase as investors continued to assess the outlook of oil and natural gas revenues and their impact in the Russian economy.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen will travel to Asia to gather support on a price cap for Russian oil after the idea was discussed among G7 countries in last week’s summit.

Lukoil and Rosneft shares dropped 1.2% and 2.8%, respectively.

At the same time, Gazprom erased gains and closed in the red, as traders speculated on whether Canada will release the Nord Stream turbines that Russia claims are preventing flows to Europe, undermining Canadian sanctions that prohibit services for Russian clients.

Lastly, mining shares closed mixed, pressured by a lower export outlook due to the ruble's rebound. On the weekly basis, the MOEX index added 0.8%.

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Six Month Chart
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bigdog

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index declined nearly 3% to close at 2,162 on Monday, its lowest since the day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as investors continue to assess the effect that lower energy revenues to Europe may have on Russia’s economy.

Gazprom shares were among the biggest losers, as Canada’s pledge to return Nord Stream I’s repaired turbine failed to ease concerns of supply uncertainty.

The natural gas giant said that flows through the pipeline will remain halted until July 21, cutting supplies to Germany while Italy reported to be receiving one third less than the amounts booked.

In the meantime, Sberbank led the financial sector with a near 5% decline.

Also, the lower demand outlook for energy pressured Russia’s oil sector, with Lukoil stocks closed 1.5% down. .

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bigdog

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1.3% down at 2,134 on Tuesday, extending yesterday’s plunge to the lowest since the day of Ukraine's invasion, as effects of the West’s sweeping sanctions and recession concerns pressured Russia’s heavyweight commodity-backed stocks.

Shares of gold miner Petropavlovsk plunged 77% and were suspended from trading on the Moscow Exchange, as the company plans to file for administration in a bid to protect its business as it struggles to repay loans owed to sanctions-hit lender Gazprombank.

The rest of the mining sector followed, with Polymetal and Severstal dropping 5.7% and 3.6%, respectively.

On the other hand, Gazprom shares closed higher after Finance Minister Anton Siluanov said in an interview with Vedomosti business daily that the decision by the gas giant not to pay dividends this year for the first time since 1998 does not mean it will do so in the coming years. .

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia Index fell 2.8% to close at 2,074 on Wednesday, extending its sell-off this week to levels touched the day of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as investors continued to assess the outlook of Russian energy revenues as exports to Europe continue to grow uncertain.

Gazprom shares closed nearly 3% down after it announced it cannot predict the developments regarding supplies through its Nord Stream I pipeline, even as Canada accepted to repair turbines that Gazprom blamed for when it suspended natural gas flows to Germany.

The energy sector followed, with Lukoil and Rosneft losing 2.8% and 3.8%, respectively.

In the meantime, the dented outlooks for world demand and the ruble’s strong momentum continued to pressure Russia’s metals sector, with Polymetal shares plunging 7%.

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bigdog

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia Index pared early gains and closed at 2,063 on Thursday, the lowest since the stock market plunge on the day that Russia invaded Ukraine as worldwide recession jitters continued to pressure Russia’s commodity-backed sectors.

Polymetal and MMK shares declined over 2% and Severstal dropped 1.8%, tracking the decline in bullion, copper, and nickel.

Concerns of economic slowdown also hit the oil services sector, with Lukoil, Rosneft, and Tatneft shedding between 2.5%-1%.

On the other hand, tech shares pushed against the negative momentum and closed above the flatline, led by a 1% gain for Yandex.

The sector benefited from fresh weekly CPI data pointing to continued deflation in Russia, strengthening the case for another rate cut by the central bank.

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bigdog

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 2.2% higher at 2,210 on Friday, rebounding from February lows and halting a 5-session losing streak with strong support from nearly all sectors, while investors continued to monitor the outlook of energy supply to Europe and economic growth from its main trading partners.

Russian fertilizer producers rose sharply after the US signaled it would not impose any sanctions on Russian grains and fertilizers, with Acron shares surging early 8%.

The oil sector also booked gains, as Bloomberg reported Russia is working on a plan to create a national oil benchmark next year to facilitate trade.

On the other hand, miners underperformed the broader index amid pressure from a strong ruble and fresh data pointing to a slowdown in Chinese economic growth.

The MOEX plummeted 5% on the week, as uncertainty over energy revenues from Europe and stronger concerns of isolation from Western economies pressured Russian assets.


CHART 12 Month MOEX
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bigdog

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.6% lower at 2,095 on Monday, partially erasing last session’s rebound and not far from the February-lows touched last week, as investors continued to monitor developments regarding Russian energy exports and how it may affect the economy.

Gazprom shares closed 0.5% lower following reports that it declared force majeure on German Uniper, among other possible clients, further strengthening worries that gas cuts through Nord Stream 1 could continue for a prolonged time.

Losses among blue chips in other sectors followed, with Lukoil, Sberbank, and Severstal closing between 0.7%-2.4% down.

Meanwhile, markets expect the CBR to cut its key interest rate this week to below levels before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Weekly inflation readings pointed to deflationary price movements last week, extending the higher than expected deceleration in the CPI for June.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1.2% lower at 2,070 on Tuesday, approaching the February-low touched last week amid further pessimism regarding Russia’s economic outlook, as energy cuts to Europe dent revenues and add to the country’s isolation from Western economies.

Gazprom shares closed higher despite more clients being notified of their force majeure, even though it cited retroactive supplies and gave no justification for the gas cuts.

The move ramps up concerns that natural gas flows will remain low, adding to worries of low energy revenues after Gazprom cancelled dividend payments for record setting earnings that plunged the stock by 40%.

Further losses were spread to all sectors, with heavyweights like Lukoil, Sberbank, and Severstal declining.

Meanwhile, markets expect the CBR to cut its key interest rate this week to below levels before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as the deflationary trend in consumer prices persist and the ruble remains strong.

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The MOEX Russia Index pared early gains and closed slightly above the flatline at 2,075 on Wednesday, but remained close to February-lows touched last week, as gains in energy offset losses for miners.

Investors continued to monitor developments regarding Russian supplies of energy to Europe, with Gazprom shares jumping 2% after President Putin signaled that the Nord Stream 1 pipeline will be restarted tomorrow, in line with the planned schedule of maintenance.

The European Commission previously said it doesn’t expect gas flows to come back, citing that the delays and cutbacks were baseless and that Russia was weaponizing energy.

Oil service providers also rallied, with Rosneft adding 2.8%.

Meanwhile, markets expect the CBR to cut its key interest rate this week to below levels before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as the deflationary trend in consumer prices persist and the ruble remains strong.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1% lower at 2,054, its lowest close in nearly five years as confidence in the Russian economy continued to deteriorate amid the war in Ukraine, while investors assessed the return of gas supplies to Europe.

Miners fell the most, tracking a near 12% plunge by Polymetal after it published poor earnings results, while Severstal closed 3% lower after as it announced it won’t disclose financial results for Q1 or Q2 of this year.

Gazprom shares dropped 2% after resuming gas flows to Germany via the Nord Stream I pipeline, remaining at the 40% capacity that was in place since supply was suspended. Oil services providers followed the downward trend, with Lukoil and Rosneft dropping over 1% each.

In the meantime, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said that the Kremlin’s goals in Ukraine have expanded further west beyond the Donbas region, as Western states continue to supply arms to Ukraine, emphasizing that peace talks are not an option currently.

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bigdog

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia Index closed 2.1% higher at 2,095 on Friday, rebounding from the lowest close in five years yesterday after the CBR delivered a larger than expected interest rate cut of 150bps to 8%, taking the key rate to below its pre-invasion level.

The central bank lowered inflation expectations for the coming years and also said that the decline in business activity is slower than previously thought, despite prolonged constraints given the external backdrop.

Lower borrowing costs supported sharp gains in the tech, energy, financial, and real-estate sectors, with TCS Group and Yandex adding more than 5.5%, while Lukoil gained 4.2%.

On the other hand, miners continued to underperform as investors further to digested poor earnings by Polymetal and the omission of results by Severstal.

Elsewhere, the Russian delegation agreed to open safe trade corridors out of the Black Sea for Ukrainian grain exports.

Still, the MOEX fell 0.7% on a weekly basis.

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Bit of conflict by writer of todays article above reporting MOEX Russia Index closed 2.1% higher at 2,095 on Friday

The Yahoo index chart below reported MOEX closed 0.19% lower at 2,222.51
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MOEX 12 Month Chart
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Dona Ferentes

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I don't think many Russian citizens would use ASF as a source of information to trade their (dodgy, opaque) markets.
 

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 1.6% higher at 2,130 on Monday, extending last session’s sharp gain as investors further assessed the Central Bank of Russia’s 150bps interest rate cut.

The cut was larger than expected and lowered the bank’s rate to 8%, well below its pre-invasion level.

Lower borrowing costs continued to support the tech sector, with Yandex shares surging 9%.

Miners and metallurgists also benefited, marked by a 7% rebound for Polymetal shares. On the other hand, the energy sector booked losses.

Gazprom shares closed muted after saying it will cut gas flows to Germany further as another turbine in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline faces issues.

The move placed further uncertainty on future gas flows to Europe, with the West pressing accusations that Moscow weaponizes energy.

In the meantime, fertilizer producers were slightly lower as Russia’s strike in the port of Odessa dented confidence that wheat exports out of the Ukrainian Black Sea would continue smoothly.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia Index jumped 3% to close at 2,190 on Tuesday, supported by tech and metallurgists while investors assessed the outlook of Russian energy revenues.

Yandex surged 8.3% after posting higher revenues and profits, in addition to forecasting a sharp increase in investment.

The strong results added to the sector’s positive momentum after the central bank slashed its benchmark rate by a higher than expected 150bps last week.

In the meantime, Gazprom shares closed 1% higher despite the EU’s agreement to curb natural gas usage by 15% from August until March.

The move responded to increased uncertainty from Russian energy supplies amid continuous capacity cuts in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

Despite gradually recovering from the stock crash following the Ukrainian invasion, Gazprom shares plunged again last month after canceling dividend payments.
 

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia index closed 0.3% higher at 2,200, cementing its 4th consecutive session on the green but dropping sharply from intra-day highs as investors continued to assess the outlook on Russia’s energy revenues.

Gazprom shares added 1.3% as it slowed gas flows to Europe via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.

The state-backed natural gas giant cut capacity in the pipeline to 20% amid continuous alleged issues with turbines, while EU states agreed to collectively cut back usage by 15% until March of 2023.

Despite gradually recovering from the stock crash following the Ukrainian invasion, Gazprom shares plunged again last month after cancelling dividend payments.

The surge in natural gas prices supported Novatek shares to jump 3%, despite refusing to publish financial results for the second quarter. Oil shares also closed in the green, while Sberbank and VTB led the downturn for the financial sector.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia Index erased early gains and closed 0.3% down at 2,190 on Thursday, halting four consecutive sessions on the green as the downturn in commodity-backed stocks offset strong performances among retailers.

MMK and Severstal both closed 3% down, while Rusal and Polymetal dropped 2%.

The energy sector declined to a lower extent, with oil service Lukoil losing 0.5% and Gazprom shares closing below the flatline as investors continued to monitor flows through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline to Germany following the cut to 20% capacity yesterday.

The losses tracked lower risk sentiment amid a slew of concerning economic data, as monthly GDP and industrial production in Russia contracted sharply.

At the same time, the drop in real wages and retail sales both surpassed expectations. On the other hand, retailers MTS and O’Key led the gains after publishing operating results.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia Index closed 1% higher at 2,210, the highest in three weeks, erasing yesterday’s losses amid strong performances for energy and retail stocks.

Rosneft, and Tatneft tracked the rally in crude prices to gain 2.5% and 3.5%, respectively.

At the same time, retail shares continued to rally with a 30% surge for grocery chain O’Key.

The aggregate retailers index surged nearly 8% on the week, largely benefiting from the central bank’s steeper than expected 150bps interest rate cut on July 22, that took borrowing costs to below pre-Ukraine invasion levels.

On the other hand, Gazprom shares closed below the flatline, as investors monitored the extent that increased exports to China can make up for revenues lost with the decline of gas flows to Europe.

Despite gradually recovering from the stock crash following the Ukrainian invasion, Gazprom shares plunged again last month after cancelling dividend payments.

On the week, the MOEX index is set to gain 5.6%.


12 Month MOEX Chart
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The ruble-based MOEX Russia Index closed 1.3% lower at 2,180 on Monday, backtracking last session’s gain with strong selling pressure among banks and the energy sector as investors digested remarks from the central bank.

The CBR said that the Russian economy is expected to contract 7% in the coming quarter, after the 4.3% drop in the second quarter.

Gazprom shares closed 1.5% down as investors continued to monitor the extent that increased exports to China can make up for revenues lost with the decline of gas flows to Europe.

Besides the steep capacity cut in the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, EU states agreed to phase out 15% of gas usage until March.

Major banks also ended sharply in the red, with Sberbank and VTB dropping 3.3% and 2.2%, respectively.

On top of that, the ruble’s rally in the session pressured metallurgists, with Norilsk Nickel shares falling more than 3%.

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The ruble-based MOEX Russia Index closed 2% lower at 2,140 on Tuesday, extending yesterday’s sharp decline amid the increasingly grim outlook of the Russian economy, as investors further digested remarks from the central bank and continued to monitor energy supplies to Europe and Asia.

The CBR forecasted the Russian GDP to contract by 7% during the third quarter, nearly double the rate of the second quarter’s estimated drop.

Energy stocks and metallurgists were the main laggards of the session, with Rosneft dropping 3.5% while Polyus sank more than 5%.

In the meantime, Lukoil shares lost nearly 3% despite posting a net profit of over RUB 520 billion in the first half of 2022, largely benefitting from volatile energy markets since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and compared to RUB 146 billion in the corresponding period of the previous year.
 
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