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Russian Invasion

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Hello everyone, hope you are all doing well and staying health.

I kindly wondered please if anyone had any thoughts on how much the US stocks could fall if Russia does invade Ukraine, i know some of this is speculation. Does anyone have any stocks or alternative investments such as REITs that they use to protect themselves against market turbulences please apart from holding amounts in cash? I am restructuring my portfolio and please wanted any guidance on this.

Thank you very much for any advice you can give. Thank you for your kindness and have a wonderful day. All the best.
 
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personal thoughts only but NOT advice

i don't think a Russian incursion will be that disruptive ( but SOME will blame Russia for anything and everything )

i think big chunks of the West is already a basket case , pulling the 'look over there ' trick

IF March 2020 wasn't a real crash , then i have no experience in a real crash , BUT the global economy has massive disconnects everywhere .

i have been carefully accumulating REITs as bond proxies ( over the last 5 years ) , but given the huge amount of easy credit sloshing around that is far from ideal

good luck trying to work out what a 'safe-haven ' is this time around

probably try looking for well-run companies ( but they are liable to be take-over targets , especially cashed up ones )

even without the war concerns the global economy is a mess

a worst case scenario would be a global credit drought ( where nobody will lend money , at any rate )

use March 2020 as a source of hints ( but not facts )

good luck

now a possible Black Swan would be if China raises the Bamboo Curtain again ( slashing international trade )
 
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With this:

"Halted stocks, SWIFT, CDS, oil, gold, yachts, rap and heists."


as well as this




Most likely this will impact on these ETFs available through the ASX:

EMKT
EMMG
FEMX
IEM
VGE
WEMG

anyone who thinks they know is most probably going to be wrong.
 
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Russia is in a vice getting crushed economically, what would be going through Putins mind now? Win big or lose it all, there is no going back now. Estonia has roughly 24-25% ethic Russian population, also in Nato. This is logically the next point of escalation.
See how many Rubles the Nato contract with Estonia is worth, think Putin would see that hand
 

Sean K

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Russia is in a vice getting crushed economically, what would be going through Putins mind now? Win big or lose it all, there is no going back now. Estonia has roughly 24-25% ethic Russian population, also in Nato. This is logically the next point of escalation.
See how many Rubles the Nato contract with Estonia is worth, think Putin would see that hand

The Baltics are out of the question unless a new government drops NATO. Not sure if that will happen.

This war is going to cripple Russia for years. For a decade at least.

China might bail them out and keep them afloat somehow. That might have been part of the planning between Vlad and Xi pre-winter olympics.
 
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China might bail them out and keep them afloat somehow.



And from the article,

China’s President Xi Jinping alone has the power to keep the Russian economy functional and Putin in power. The Moscow share and derivatives market remains shut because the authorities know what would be revealed if it allowed them to open. How?

Because the securities of 27 of Russia’s biggest companies continued trading in London for a few days until they were suspended this week. And the losses were horrendous. Before suspension, they’d lost between 90 and 100 per cent of their value since the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine. The sanction-hit Sberbank was down by 99.7 per cent to trade for just one penny, for instance. Oil giant Lukoil had lost 99.2 per cent.

plus:

“In reality,” reported London’s Financial Times, “many Western banks, refineries and shipowners are in effect ‘self sanctioning’ – behaving as if Russian oil has already been placed under sanctions. ‘Russia’s oil has effectively become toxic,’ said one banker.”

The prominent Russian economist Maxim Mironov writes: “I’m often asked about economic sanctions. In short, my scientific conclusion, as a finance professor and PhD from Chicago University – the Russian economy is f---ed.”
:laugh:
 

Sean K

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And from the article,



plus:

:laugh:

Russia is now toast. Vlad has dramatically miscalculated on this one and I think Xi let him do it so Russia would become beholden to China. Potentially part of China's long-term grand strategic plan to take control of everything.

The only thing that's now stopping China is an internal uprising and geography. They are still trapped in East Asia surrounded by countries who are increasingly growing in their hatred. I envisage ASEAN becoming a security block with links to FPDA, ANZUS, AUKUS, and the US-Japan Security Alliance, in the near term. Ultimately, China will be toasted too.
 
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I admit I am no expert but a couple of things seem to have occurred and it's unintentional.

First, NATO would seem to have been re-energised and that in only a couple of weeks. Totally unexpected. I have heard that now both Finland and Sweden are considering membership. That's amazing to me.

And the same with the EU. It appears to have bonded more than was the case previously.

Sure, Russia will probably resort to a standard tactic of surrounding and reducing places to rubble (We have to destroy the village in order to save it concept) but the further West it goes the greater the opposition appears to be.

While Russia will more than likely occupy the Ukraine, it will have the issue of continuing holding it. That will further consume resources and will be costly in lives - on both sides. Wonder which population won't be thrilled to see all the body-bags coming home.
 

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I admit I am no expert but a couple of things seem to have occurred and it's unintentional.

First, NATO would seem to have been re-energised and that in only a couple of weeks. Totally unexpected. I have heard that now both Finland and Sweden are considering membership. That's amazing to me.

And the same with the EU. It appears to have bonded more than was the case previously.

Sure, Russia will probably resort to a standard tactic of surrounding and reducing places to rubble (We have to destroy the village in order to save it concept) but the further West it goes the greater the opposition appears to be.

While Russia will more than likely occupy the Ukraine, it will have the issue of continuing holding it. That will further consume resources and will be costly in lives - on both sides. Wonder which population won't be thrilled to see all the body-bags coming home.

Apparently Russia is cremating their dead soldiers in the field with mobile crematoriums, so their won’t be body bags heading back to Russia.
 
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it will also put a bigger drain on the EU economy ( as well as NATO resources ) remember NATO only existed to contain the Soviet Union it has been a cash burden in search of a purpose
 

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it will also put a bigger drain on the EU economy ( as well as NATO resources ) remember NATO only existed to contain the Soviet Union it has been a cash burden in search of a purpose
Don’t forget the war against terror, especially Afghanistan. The NATO alliance was activated when the twin towers were attacked.
 

Sean K

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it will also put a bigger drain on the EU economy ( as well as NATO resources ) remember NATO only existed to contain the Soviet Union it has been a cash burden in search of a purpose

European countries did spend a lot on defence until the fall of the Berlin Wall, but since the 80s have underspent and relied too heavily on the US. They are all gradually re-arming, particularly the UK. Trump motivated that a little, but Vlad probably has them all hopping now. When you have pacifist Germany and neutral Switzerland supporting Ukraine, it's a clear sign the long term stability of Europe is in question because of Russian kinetic aggression by unilaterally invading a sovereign state and committing crimes against International Humanitarian Law.
 

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Russia has invaded a sovereign nation and has committed war crimes, but I think NATO 'lending' fighters to Ukraine is going to tip this conflict over an edge. Better to just close Russia off economically and allow the Russian people to sort out their Animal Farm.

Warplanes on agenda, Biden flags more aid​

Reuters, Bloomberg

Lviv/Kyiv | The number of Ukrainian refugees is expected to reach 1.5 million on Sunday as Russia continued its attack 11 days after invading Ukraine and Kyiv pressed for further Western action, including more sanctions and weapons.

Moscow and Kyiv traded blame over a failed ceasefire plan that would have let civilians flee Mariupol and Volnovakha, two southern cities besieged by Russian forces. Another round of talks was tentatively planned for Monday as Ukrainians who could escape spilled into neighbouring Poland, Romania, Slovakia and elsewhere.

Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky held new talks with US President Joe Biden after the ceasefire deal collapsed.

Biden’s “administration is surging security, humanitarian, and economic assistance to Ukraine and is working closely with Congress to secure additional funding,” he told Zelenskiy on Saturday evening, according to a White House statement.

The US is working with Poland and in discussions with other NATO allies on a plan to have those countries supply warplanes to Ukraine for use against Russian forces, a White House spokesperson said.

The talks with Biden followed confusion over the proposed evacuation Saturday of non-combatants, and came after Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a fresh warning to Ukraine’s democratically elected leadership.

Russian forces resumed shelling Volnovakha after the agreement of localized cease-fires, according to Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk. Fighting was also taking place along a route meant to serve as a humanitarian corridor to evacuate some 200,000 people from the nearby port city of Mariupol.

In a televised address on Saturday night, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky called on people in areas occupied by Russian troops to go on the offensive and fight.

“We must go outside and drive this evil out of our cities,” he said, vowing to rebuild his nation. “My confidence in this is reinforced by the energy of our resistance, our protest.”

Putin earlier reiterated that he wanted a neutral Ukraine that had been “demilitarised” and “denazified,” and likened Western sanctions “to a declaration of war,” adding: “Thank God it has not come to that.”
 
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Isolated Putin’s only lifeline: become Xi’s puppet

Evidence is mounting that Xi Jinping knew of Russia’s impending invasion of Ukraine and positioned China to be uniquely supportive. But why? It would suit Xi for Russia - the international pariah state - to become China’s vassal state.
www.theage.com.au

I would also not be surprised if Jinping was simply egging Vlad on so he could see exactly how "The West" reacts to this invasion.
After all, it is exactly what he's planning for Taiwan isn't it!?
A clear insight into our counter re-action, gives him very important information that he can apply to his invasion tactics......if and when!!

imho only.
 

Sean K

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Isolated Putin’s only lifeline: become Xi’s puppet

Evidence is mounting that Xi Jinping knew of Russia’s impending invasion of Ukraine and positioned China to be uniquely supportive. But why? It would suit Xi for Russia - the international pariah state - to become China’s vassal state.
www.theage.com.au

I would also not be surprised if Jinping was simply egging Vlad on so he could see exactly how "The West" reacts to this invasion.
After all, it is exactly what he's planning for Taiwan isn't it!?
A clear insight into our counter re-action, gives him very important information that he can apply to his invasion tactics......if and when!!

imho only.

Exactly. This is a trial of how the West responds to China invading Taiwan. Unfortunately for Taiwan, they have very little solid support in the SW Pacific and SE Asia due to the weakness of just about every other country in the region. Only the QUAD, ANZUS, AUKUS, FPDA, ABCA, will put up any support and defence, but they won't. While everyone thinks the US is the most important player here, I think India and Japan hold the keys here. They can shut off the SLOC from/to China from all directions at any time, practically trapping them in their current geography and unable to move. They need to signal that capability right now.
 
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I have an uneasy/anxious feeling that this Ukraine war will soon spread into neighbouring countries such as Poland - NATO & US are sending heaps of military equipment/weapons & fighter jets there as we speak - Putin may think of targeting these military bases in Poland (he sees as an immediate threat being close proximity to Ukraine) to try wipe them out resulting in WW3 :(
 

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I have an uneasy/anxious feeling that this Ukraine war will soon spread into neighbouring countries such as Poland - NATO & US are sending heaps of military equipment/weapons & fighter jets there as we speak - Putin may think of targeting these military bases in Poland (he sees as an immediate threat being close proximity to Ukraine) to try wipe them out resulting in WW3 :(
I think he has already bitten of more than he can chew in Ukraine, over 60% of his forces are there, he couldn’t afford to divert more resources to another fight.
 
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I have an uneasy/anxious feeling that this Ukraine war will soon spread into neighbouring countries such as Poland - NATO & US are sending heaps of military equipment/weapons & fighter jets there as we speak - Putin may think of targeting these military bases in Poland (he sees as an immediate threat being close proximity to Ukraine) to try wipe them out resulting in WW3 :(

I think the Baltics would be first on the list, Latvia Estonia are surrounded by Russia, have small territory and Russian populations. A small hit and walk through invasion could be done very easily while testing Nato response.

On the other hand Poland having a population of close to 40M a big land mass, alot more and some modern weapons coupled with a deep rooted hatred of Russia since the middle ages would be a bear trap soaked in petrol and set on fire.
 
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Exactly. This is a trial of how the West responds to China invading Taiwan. Unfortunately for Taiwan, they have very little solid support in the SW Pacific and SE Asia due to the weakness of just about every other country in the region. Only the QUAD, ANZUS, AUKUS, FPDA, ABCA, will put up any support and defence, but they won't. While everyone thinks the US is the most important player here, I think India and Japan hold the keys here. They can shut off the SLOC from/to China from all directions at any time, practically trapping them in their current geography and unable to move. They need to signal that capability right now.
In the same way as any increased "help" from NATO to the Ukrainian gov is raising the stakes and pushing Putin to go further and further toward full Ukraine takeover ,more deaths and flattening of the actual Ukrainian regions,
I believe any action against maritime channels for China would be an act of war.
Remember Japan's start of WWII?
There is a museum of war in Tokyo where the Japaneses are taught in 2020 why WWII started ....with nice diagrams of import flow routes cut by the US.
This is still the official reason of Pearl Harbour.
a bit like our WMD in irak...
Do we want to give China the same pretext?
And yes Putin and Xi had discussion before , and Xi will support Putin both for Taiwan test and for cheaper minerals.Also because the USD/power hegemony is being destroyed.
China has a strong interest in supporting Putin.

Options aheads:
NATO and EU carry on providing weapons and throwing oil on the fire
-> half of ukraine flattened and ugly occupation war ..un winnable or nuclear tactical war to cut of weapon flow..an horror not impossible now.

Putin removed from power:
Full short US victory, Reset is unchallenged, Europe muslim in 50y, Ukranian people can breath and be safe but Taiwan is taken over within weeks.
Start of WWIII US vs China hopefully cold

Takeover of Ukraine, installation of delimitarised gov on the real Ukrainian part:
.aka imho the original plan from Putin a Finland like status.
They do what they want as long as neutral.everyone is happy .inc Xi except US and vassals.USD destroyed as sanctions just hit back on long term
Ukraine can have democracy in the half or 2/3 which is Ukrainian,.
Russian part Crimea,Dombas go back to "mother" Russia.
Taiwan doomed but maybe in a bloodless way. Aka HK style

Lastly .carry on the current mess..not sure can go much longer
Civilian evacuation blocked by Ukrainian President ..of course as population are his best weapon
always the case
At one stage,Putin has to go finish the job if only to negotiate deal.terrible for Ukraine population.
But all good,we already have stories of Ukrainian women raped, bad Russians bombing nuclear plant,soon they will be unplugging premature baby units..i hope no one has forgotten these from Kuwait invasion propaganda books?

What a mess ..
however i blame the swamp, Putin and military lobby, i really think the real blame is on the masses of uneducated people we have all become.
Sheeple to propaganda
University degrees here, in the states without having even had a single history unit, happily going to gice covid jabs to kids, chanting democracy for Ukraine while living under 3y of emergency rules, unlegal as not democratically voted discrimination laws, Australians forbidden to leave the country for 3y yet protesting again undemocratic Russia or China.
The irony.
Honestly nothing good i can see ahead.
The covid scam was a test on population submission in the West.
We passed with honors....put your seatbelt on,this will not stop there.
Reset forever....
 
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