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Rich Dad's Prophecy - Market Crash of 2016

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Uncle Festivus

Uncle Festivus

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In light of this weeks events, interesting reading if you haven't already read it.....Rich Dad's Prophecy - Why The Biggest Stock Market Crash In History Is Still Coming & How You Can Prepare Yourself & Profit

http://pdf.thepdfportal.net/PDFFiles/310957.pdf

A prophecy from 2002......

This book was written (with Kiyosaki's co-author and partner, Sharon Lechter, C.P.A.) in 2002. All of the predictions made in this book are right on track - if not ahead of schedule.

The primary "prophecy" is that a MAJOR stock market upheaval is coming in 2016. This is the year when an estimated 2,282,887 "baby boomers" turn 70 - and are required BY LAW to make mandatory withdrawals from their 401 (k) accounts. In 2017, the number of people turning 70 jumps by 700,000 to 2,928,818, and keeps increasing every year thereafter.
Click to expand...

http://www.dol.gov/ebsa/faqs/faq_consumer_pension.html

Federal law sets a mandatory date by which you must start receiving your retirement benefits, even if you would like to wait longer. This mandatory start date generally is set to begin on April 1 following the calendar year in which you turn 70 ½ or, if later, when you retire. However, your plan may require you to begin receiving distributions even if you have not retired by age 70 ½.
Click to expand...
 
Value Collector

Value Collector

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Uncle Festivus said:
In light of this weeks events, interesting reading if you haven't already read it.....Rich Dad's Prophecy - Why The Biggest Stock Market Crash In History Is Still Coming & How You Can Prepare Yourself & Profit

http://pdf.thepdfportal.net/PDFFiles/310957.pdf

A prophecy from 2002......



http://www.dol.gov/ebsa/faqs/faq_consumer_pension.html
Click to expand...

It's probably a bit like bible prophecy, every few years it will be dragged out as an explanation of the most recent turmoil.

I read the book in 2004, and thought the 2008 crash was the "prophecy", don't get me wrong, it's a good read and inspires thought, I jus don't think it's anything to worry about, in fact such a crash would be a welcome once in a life time opportunity, I mean who doesn't ant to buy things at half price, lol.
 
notting

notting

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That boom hasn't stopped yet but when it does add 20 years and go short then!

Its all about China.
China puts out soft numbers - Oil weakens and sovereigns are going to go bust.
Supply could be curbed to save all the contagion - that's the game.
 
skc

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Uncle Festivus said:
In light of this weeks events, interesting reading if you haven't already read it.....Rich Dad's Prophecy - Why The Biggest Stock Market Crash In History Is Still Coming & How You Can Prepare Yourself & Profit
Click to expand...

I don't doubt that the demographic shift is a major headwind to markets in the immediate... but I don't know why it needs to cause a severe crash. The increase in pension withdrawal (and corresponding reduction in contributions) should cause a continued steady fall, but not a drastic crash.

Unless there is some quasi financial equilibrium being violated... perhaps the book make further explanations?
 
Gringotts Bank

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Kiyosaki is American. By all reports we have a similar situation here with low superannuation contributions, increasing numbers seeking government handouts (legitimate and otherwise) and many living on an aged pension.

But afaik it's all about sentiment. With everyone glued to each other via the media and internet, emergent phenomena form extremely quickly.

 
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skc

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Gringotts Bank said:
Kiyosaki is American. By all reports we have a similar situation here with low superannuation contributions, increasing numbers seeking government handouts (legitimate and otherwise) and many living on an aged pension.

But afaik it's all about sentiment. With everyone glued to each other via the media and internet, emergent phenomena form extremely quickly.

Click to expand...


Amazing video. Thanks for posting.
 
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CanOz

CanOz

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Y'all wait until Germany's largest bank folds up, it's got to be weighing on the Dax....
 
explod

explod

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Aarrrrhh well, life goes on,

Large fire, billowing black smoke looking west from my office here at Thomastow.

Local radio says a pile of tyres, started around 8am and still ging strong here at 11.20. Will be another "fire sale" I suppose, err did I say "tyre sale". Wreckers up the street near to our shed cannot make sales, factories being knocked down all around us, in fact some of our good quality old oregon coming from these.

Anyhow I digress a bit off topic.

Reckon Sorros is making a bit of an understatement myself. We have the nice GDP numbers of the US being mostly consumption, thier unemployment numbers not including those out of work more than 12 months but.. Yeh.. Including part time jobs. Yeeh and if you have two part time jobs its counted for statistical purposes AAASSS 2 jobs.
My point in this paragraph is that most of the bankers, finance industry, governments and media have been ramping for years but finally the systems can take no more. Hitting the wall in 2016 perhaps.

So throw a bit of this into the pile of those bits from other posters this morning and it does look a bit bleak.

The Rich Dad book were great, gave each of my elder Grandchilren a copy published for teenagers. Half tgem soon got into property and have done well. One a bit over committed is worried as he cannot keep tenants sufficient to meet debt sevicing. Got them onto Rich Dad's book on gold a few years back but tgey were too absorbed in property. Funny they did not release this book in Australia. Someone does not seem to lije real money.
 
C

craft

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The primary "prophecy" is that a MAJOR stock market upheaval is coming in 2016. This is the year when an estimated 2,282,887 "baby boomers" turn 70 - and are required BY LAW to make mandatory withdrawals from their 401 (k) accounts. In 2017, the number of people turning 70 jumps by 700,000 to 2,928,818, and keeps increasing every year thereafter.
Click to expand...

Australia has similar sort of situation with its retirement system however I think the conclusion that it will trigger a crash is a little shallow in thought process.

Yes there will be less capital looking for assets to invest in so you could expect a drift downwards in multiples paid however the conversion of what was savings into consumption will have a positive economic effect, especially in current environment where the funk is basically lack of consumptive demand with no inflation in sight.

I think the conclusion of a crash is first level thinking of what reduced demand for investment assets will cause. I see increased real economic activity from the conversion of savings to consumption and reduced P/E multiples basically leaving price level largely unaffected in the short term whilst enhancing long term returns from being able to buy improved business cash flows for the same price.

If the environment was labour/capital/supply constrained with inflation on move then maybe I would be a little concerned about the retirement situation (more about the reduction of labour than capital) but not in 2016 – not for Australia - More a net positive from my perspective. :2twocents

If retires on the whole are having to reduce their consumption drastically below their living standards while working because they don't have enough savings then that is more of a worry.
 
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Just supposing RK is right and their is in fact a general crash this year. Then supposing you had a large sum to invest/protect - then how would you go about it? Cash, Bonds, Real Estate, Term deposits?? What would work best in that type of scenario? The scenario is a recession on a Japanese scale so what would a Japanese investor have been best served by in 1989 might be an answer to this.


Sev
 
M

Muschu

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Anyone had a really good look at this guy's background ...? Going back to Money and You (4 Corners expose) and further to Maharishi Mahesh Yogi....

Makes for an interesting study imo.
 
Uncle Festivus

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Regardless of this particular prediction and it's outcome, there are plenty of other things that are taking markets lower, with the contagion from over-leveraged currency speculators (mostly central banks themselves these days) percolating through the system. There's also the hard landing in China, Euro banks, the US recession, etc etc

The next phase of the GFC (which didn't end, it was only mitigated by more debt) has started, and this bit will be worse.
 
Uncle Festivus

Uncle Festivus

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And then somebody flicked a switch and the plunge protection team got to work - well done Janet. Or, just short covering?
Either way, the usual pattern......

2016-02-09 (3).png
 
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